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The early speculation on winter 2013-14

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Gosh I hope he has good reason to :)

It's been a lot of years since we have had a snowy november. They are great, too. I mean, why not ? The only foliage left is browned oak leaves -- otherwise, the landscape is barren and drab. It would be nice to have a solid front-end loaded winter, and I know that kicking one off in November is on the extreme side of do so, it's got to happen at some point or another again before the sun expands and engulfs the Earth as a Red Giant a billion-and-a-half years from now... christ.

Didnt SNE have a warning snow event in mid-November last year? Or was that more of a CT deal?

ORH with 7.8" last NOV which isn't bad.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I'm not afraid of a -PDO...just look at the graph you posted, Tip...when the PDO has been negative, we've generally done very well. The putrid 1980s occurred during a solidly +PDO regime. Same with some of those awful winters in the 1930s.

Granted, we can have some blockbusters too when the PDO is positive like some of those early 1990s winters (1992-1994) and the late 1950s and late 1970s. Overall the PDO has very little correlation on our winters as a whole. There's a mild inverse-correlation with temperatures, but a mild positive correlation with snowfall.

That doesn't mean it doesn't have a huge effect on the longwave pattern, it just means for our area specifically, other factors supercede the PDO and tend to dictate how the PDO-driven pattern will behave in the northern CONUS east of the Great Lakes.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Didnt SNE have a warning snow event in mid-November last year? Or was that more of a CT deal?

 

 

Can't recall ... Will has a shimmering memory for that sort of detail.

 

But getting an event in November isn't really what I mean.  I can remember lots of snow falling in November turning into mud by the ides of December.

 

I mean "front end loaded" -- impetus on loaded;  as in, lots of events.  Oh, and available cold to keep thing pretty and stenciled white and black, with the smell of chimney smoke, hot-totties, and eventually ... Christmas carols.  And, not those cheesy fabricated noisy attempts to remake the old classics; I want Peri Como doing "Oh Holy Night" coming into focus when I crash through the front door after having cleared 9" of snow off the front walk during the first week of December.  

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I'm not afraid of a -PDO...just look at the graph you posted, Tip...when the PDO has been negative, we've generally done very well. The putrid 1980s occurred during a solidly +PDO regime. Same with some of those awful winters in the 1930s.

Granted, we can have some blockbusters too when the PDO is positive like some of those early 1990s winters (1992-1994) and the late 1950s and late 1970s. Overall the PDO has very little correlation on our winters as a whole. There's a mild inverse-correlation with temperatures, but a mild positive correlation with snowfall.

That doesn't mean it doesn't have a huge effect on the longwave pattern, it just means for our area specifically, other factors supercede the PDO and tend to dictate how the PDO-driven pattern will behave in the northern CONUS east of the Great Lakes.

 

Yup!   Negative PDO is only part of the paint.

 

It actually brings up a question I had 10 years ago, and have never fully felt satisfied with any answer.  Has anyone actually done an advanced statistical science wrt to PDO and winters here in New England -- as in quadrature?? 

 

I ask because.... the PDO curve actually aligns quite similarly (correlation coefficient) with the solar curve, which aligns also with the tendency for the AMO and the NAO ...blah blah blah.

 

But, the solar and NAO are entering (ed) a period of negative, which correlates to bigger winters here.  So, does that mean we have opposing forces ?? 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Didnt SNE have a warning snow event in mid-November last year? Or was that more of a CT deal?

 

Tip's area got screwed in that Nov 6-7 event...the snow had trouble getting north and northeast of ORH.

 

 

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...

   WOBURN                 3.5  1137 PM 11/07  HAM RADIO              

   WAKEFIELD              3.4   600 AM 11/08  HAM RADIO              

   ARLINGTON              3.0   741 AM 11/08  HAM RADIO              

   NATICK                 2.5   552 PM 11/07  PUBLIC                 

   DRACUT                 2.3   745 AM 11/08  NONE                   

   TOWNSEND               2.0   626 AM 11/08  GENERAL PUBLIC         

   AYER                   2.0   637 AM 11/08  NONE                   

   PEPPERELL              2.0   703 AM 11/08  NONE                   

   NEWTON                 2.0   807 PM 11/07  BROADCAST MEDIA        

   WALTHAM                2.0   857 PM 11/07  PUBLIC                 

   GROTON                 2.0   740 AM 11/08  NONE                   

   FRAMINGHAM             1.8  1201 AM 11/08  HAM RADIO              

   CONCORD                1.5   830 AM 11/08  NONE                   

...NORFOLK COUNTY...

   FOXBORO                6.0   700 AM 11/08  NONE                   

   WESTWOOD               4.8   835 AM 11/08  NONE                   

   NORWOOD                4.5   959 PM 11/07  NWS EMPLOYEE           

   WALPOLE                4.0   900 PM 11/07  TRAINED SPOTTER        

   FRANKLIN               4.0   736 AM 11/08  HAM RADIO              

   EAST WALPOLE           3.8  1257 AM 11/08  TRAINED SPOTTER        

...PLYMOUTH COUNTY...

   BROCKTON               1.5   700 AM 11/08  PUBLIC                 

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...

   BRIGHTON               2.0   900 PM 11/07  COCORAHS               

   ALLSTON                2.0   805 PM 11/07  PUBLIC                 

   BOSTON                 0.4   700 AM 11/08  LOGAN AIRPORT          

   WINTHROP               0.4   700 AM 11/08  NONE                   

...WORCESTER COUNTY...

   SOUTHBRIDGE            9.3   836 AM 11/08  HAM RADIO              

   WORCESTER              6.5  1057 AM 11/08  HAM RADIO              

   SPENCER                6.4   515 AM 11/08  NONE                   

   WESTBOROUGH            4.1   730 AM 11/08  NWS EMPLOYEE           

   SHREWSBURY             4.0   821 PM 11/07  GENERAL PUBLIC         

   NORTH BROOKFIELD       4.0   820 AM 11/08  TRAINED SPOTTER        

   BOYLSTON               3.7   632 AM 11/08  NONE                   

   GRAFTON                3.0  1131 PM 11/07  NONE                   

   NORTHBRIDGE            2.2   831 PM 11/07  PUBLIC                 

   AUBURN                 2.0   112 AM 11/08  AMATEUR RADIO         

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

 

Tip's area got screwed in that Nov 6-7 event...the snow had trouble getting north and northeast of ORH.

 

 

...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...

   WOBURN                 3.5  1137 PM 11/07  HAM RADIO              

   WAKEFIELD              3.4   600 AM 11/08  HAM RADIO              

   ARLINGTON              3.0   741 AM 11/08  HAM RADIO              

   NATICK                 2.5   552 PM 11/07  PUBLIC                 

   DRACUT                 2.3   745 AM 11/08  NONE                   

   TOWNSEND               2.0   626 AM 11/08  GENERAL PUBLIC         

   AYER                   2.0   637 AM 11/08  NONE                   

   PEPPERELL              2.0   703 AM 11/08  NONE                   

   NEWTON                 2.0   807 PM 11/07  BROADCAST MEDIA        

   WALTHAM                2.0   857 PM 11/07  PUBLIC                 

   GROTON                 2.0   740 AM 11/08  NONE                   

   FRAMINGHAM             1.8  1201 AM 11/08  HAM RADIO              

   CONCORD                1.5   830 AM 11/08  NONE                   

...NORFOLK COUNTY...

   FOXBORO                6.0   700 AM 11/08  NONE                   

   WESTWOOD               4.8   835 AM 11/08  NONE                   

   NORWOOD                4.5   959 PM 11/07  NWS EMPLOYEE           

   WALPOLE                4.0   900 PM 11/07  TRAINED SPOTTER        

   FRANKLIN               4.0   736 AM 11/08  HAM RADIO              

   EAST WALPOLE           3.8  1257 AM 11/08  TRAINED SPOTTER        

...PLYMOUTH COUNTY...

   BROCKTON               1.5   700 AM 11/08  PUBLIC                 

...SUFFOLK COUNTY...

   BRIGHTON               2.0   900 PM 11/07  COCORAHS               

   ALLSTON                2.0   805 PM 11/07  PUBLIC                 

   BOSTON                 0.4   700 AM 11/08  LOGAN AIRPORT          

   WINTHROP               0.4   700 AM 11/08  NONE                   

...WORCESTER COUNTY...

   SOUTHBRIDGE            9.3   836 AM 11/08  HAM RADIO              

   WORCESTER              6.5  1057 AM 11/08  HAM RADIO              

   SPENCER                6.4   515 AM 11/08  NONE                   

   WESTBOROUGH            4.1   730 AM 11/08  NWS EMPLOYEE           

   SHREWSBURY             4.0   821 PM 11/07  GENERAL PUBLIC         

   NORTH BROOKFIELD       4.0   820 AM 11/08  TRAINED SPOTTER        

   BOYLSTON               3.7   632 AM 11/08  NONE                   

   GRAFTON                3.0  1131 PM 11/07  NONE                   

   NORTHBRIDGE            2.2   831 PM 11/07  PUBLIC                 

   AUBURN                 2.0   112 AM 11/08  AMATEUR RADIO         

Even I saw some snow out of that.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I hate how they leave those old reports in the PNS...they list snowfall from like 7pm on the 7th and compare that with reports from like noon the next day.

 

 

Yep, always a pet peeve of mine. You'd think a place like Auburn got 2" in that event I posted above if you didn't look carefully at the timestamp...Auburn is just south of ORH and probably got 6"+

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

There is also perhaps some correlation with the PDO and NAO. Our 60s winters had both. So Will, + PDO winters actually averaged a bit on the positive side regarding snowfall in that sample size you used?

 

 

No, I mixed up my wording...I should have said that both had a slight inverse correlation. I got confused because higher temps generally mean crappier winters but higher snow is "good" for winter.

 

-PDO had slightly warmer temps than positive PDO but the negative PDO also had a bit more snowfall. At least this is what I remember finding. I'll have to run the numbers again. They were probably for just BOS/ORH and could be different for places like BDR or PVD.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Yep, always a pet peeve of mine. You'd think a place like Auburn got 2" in that event I posted above if you didn't look carefully at the timestamp...Auburn is just south of ORH and probably got 6"+

LOL that's the exact example I was thinking of... Sturbridge with 9" and Auburn with 2" based on that list, makes no sense given how close they are.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

ORH had 1.4" and BDL had 0.4" on Nov 27th.

Not sure it's a siggy snowstorm or even an "event" or just snow showers, but it did snow again in November.

 

There was another very minor event on 12/1 too where there was huge CAD...even into BOS. I remember BOS snowed that day near freezing while Kevin crept above freezing. Classic cold tuck version of CAD.

 

After that, the torch floodgates opened up until after mid-month.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

After that, the torch floodgates opened up until after mid-month.

Yeah after a great, cold November, I remember most of us at the ski area about to hang from snowflake sweaters from Dec 1-16.

After the 16th though, we got in on a snowy pattern that dropped 85" in 3 weeks at the 3000ft snow board. Then after the first week of January, it didnt snow again until Feb lol.

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weathafella

weathafella

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There was another very minor event on 12/1 too where there was huge CAD...even into BOS. I remember BOS snowed that day near freezing while Kevin crept above freezing. Classic cold tuck version of CAD.

 

After that, the torch floodgates opened up until after mid-month.

We were lucky last November. The upper air pattern wasn't nearly as cold as the surface and finally December brought us to earth.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

No, I mixed up my wording...I should have said that both had a slight inverse correlation. I got confused because higher temps generally mean crappier winters but higher snow is "good" for winter.

-PDO had slightly warmer temps than positive PDO but the negative PDO also had a bit more snowfall. At least this is what I remember finding. I'll have to run the numbers again. They were probably for just BOS/ORH and could be different for places like BDR or PVD.

Oh ok. I thought a -PDO was slightly better too, but I never ran the numbers.
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weathafella

weathafella

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Posted

Still need more cold water south of the Aleutians if we want to try and build a +PDO type ridge in the PNA/EPO region...or at least to favor it.

If you have access, check out the changes maps over the past 7-30 days. Colder south of the Aleutians and warmer in the eastern PDO regions nosing down along the west coast as well.

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