The early speculation on winter 2013-14

[It's Always Sunny]

I think snow cover and ice cover are more important to us than Nao. And that we just don't know yet

I disagree. Snow and ice cover are more important over Siberia for seasonal snowfall statistics, but that in itself is just a correlation, not true fact. I think what goes on in the Pacific has more of an influence here.

[Damage In Tolland]

I disagree. Snow and ice cover are more important over Siberia for seasonal snowfall statistics, but that in itself is just a correlation, not true fact. I think what goes on in the Pacific has more of an influence here.

Yes that is what I said . I said snow/ ice means more than Nao to us

[powderfreak]

I disagree. Snow and ice cover are more important over Siberia for seasonal snowfall statistics, but that in itself is just a correlation, not true fact. I think what goes on in the Pacific has more of an influence here.

Probably true on a seasonal scale.

I view snow cover in Canada as a decent early season indicator....if Canada is still brown in mid-November, it may be a slow start to winter as those air masses will be modifying as they move SE into New England. Likewise, great early season cover in Canada could mean more fresh cold air masses lurking nearby to help with early season storms in NOV/DEC.

[eyewall]

My hope is some good upslope events to chase, and a few decent hits in the CPV. I also want to beat my personal record of -15 for my lowest temp experienced. Either way I am sure even if the winter is a total **** show it will be better than what I saw in NC. This will be my first winter in VT as a resident.

[weathafella]

I am. If we don't lay a solid foundation early up north it has a major impact on us. The examples are numerous

I don't disagree but the ssta in the NPAC is very encouraging now.

Powder....not sure yet but Im foresting subnormal temps which most of the time means above snow but nne may have less correlation.

[powderfreak]

I don't disagree but the ssta in the NPAC is very encouraging now.

Powder....not sure yet but Im foresting subnormal temps which most of the time means above snow but nne may have less correlation.

Cool...yeah I know you can't really take it seriously this time of year so early before winter, but was curious what you were leaning for snow.

I do think that snow forecasts though are literally a stab in the dark. You can get a couple rouge set-ups deliver big snows in crappy patterns...or have a winter where the pattern should've produced but for whatever reason didnt and you end below normal.

I think one of the best examples was 2009-2010 at BTV. Everyone was pretty significantly below average that winter (worst on Mansfield in 25 years) but BTV got lucky and had that freak 36" orographic blocking event. They ended up above normal because of that freak event and picked up like 50% of the seasonal snowfall in like a 5-day period around that storm.

I also think of a storm in January 2002 when I was living near ALB....awful winter but a freak 18-inch storm (complete with 8" in 2 hours) made that winter look a good deal better than it should have been.

[JBG]

I also think of a storm in January 2002 when I was living near ALB....awful winter but a freak 18-inch storm (complete with 8" in 2 hours) made that winter look a good deal better than it should have been.

Ditto New York in Februaries of 1983 and 2006.  Crappy winters that had average to above-average snows because of one-shot events.

[Ginx snewx]

It's all about the AO NAO, research shows it. Just look back 5 months ago or Jan 11

[Typhoon Tip]

It's all about the AO NAO, research shows it. Just look back 5 months ago or Jan 11

 

For our latitude and longitude they really need to be considered.  I'd also add the EPO into that discussion.

 

NCEP's own seasonal outlooks began mentioning ...about 3 years worth now, perhaps longer, caveat emptors; you could even call them omissions of lower skill regarding the stochastic nature of the polerward indices, and that even though they may be forecasting warmer than normal, users need to be aware that extended lead influence from the N cannot be as successfully ascertained as those influences coming from ENSO.   They basically got burned calling for warmer seasons in the upper MW, GL, NE, and even the MA but their efforts were submarined by blocking events.   

 

I like what they're doing.  It was off-putting for many years, and quite obvious that they were not including enough/or any consideration to the AO and it's subtended EPO/NAO domains when they were making their seasonal predictions.   We suspected (and may never know for certain) that it was probably because the science for predicting these indices was/is too lacking to be dependable.  Ignoring them altogether was, imo, unacceptable.  This way, by giving mention they take a much more responsible position, and it is more trustworthy that they expose they are aware of the AO(EPO/NAO) dilemma.

 

Which offers a nice segway ... I just have noticed that we are oscillatory in not having dropped blocking since the SSW that took place last winter and associated subsequent -AO.  I don't mean to assert that SSW is still a factor.  But just to point out 'that's when it began.'  I am a big fan of identifying those factors that 'fit' with the baser canvas, because those factors are thus in constructive interference.  Constructive interference means their ability to effect the circulation is enhanced because of positive feedback. 

It goes similarly to my argument that MJO's are less influential, relative to wave strength, on the field if the WPO is in a suppressive phase (meaning, the circulation associate with permits less latent heat gets involved in the westerlies, which means less L/W/tropical forcing).  

 

In this case, the baser canvas is the lower solar cycle, and the very quantifiable statistical analysis that lower solar correlates with more blocking.  What confuses this picture is that currently we are in a local max, with flares and occasional CMEs above the norm.  However, I suspect the atmosphere has a memory, and the current local max (which is as expected, a lower max than 'normal maxes') is not enough to off-set the longer term minimum that slated to last to ~ 2020.  I see blocking as an enhanced tendency.  

 

Whether there is any correctness to that or not, we do have the blocking.  I am not sure I see any reason why that tendency would suddenly abate going into autumn, when if anything, these ancillary hypothesis really only support it continuing.

 

The other reason is the ENSO maturing into neutral, and weakly positive [maybe] by spring.  That lends to a +PNAP ... possibly +PNA intervals.  

 

Looks like a cold snowy winter to me.       

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

For our latitude and longitude they really need to be considered. I'd also add the EPO into that discussion.

NCEP's own seasonal outlooks began mentioning ...about 3 years worth now, perhaps longer, caveat emptors; you could even call them omissions of lower skill regarding the stochastic nature of the polerward indices, and that even though they may be forecasting warmer than normal, users need to be aware that extended lead influence from the N cannot be as successfully ascertained as those influences coming from ENSO. They basically got burned calling for warmer seasons in the upper MW, GL, NE, and even the MA but their efforts were submarined by blocking events.

I like what they're doing. It was off-putting for many years, and quite obvious that they were not including enough/or any consideration to the AO and it's subtended EPO/NAO domains when they were making their seasonal predictions. We suspected (and may never know for certain) that it was probably because the science for predicting these indices was/is too lacking to be dependable. Ignoring them altogether was, imo, unacceptable. This way, by giving mention they take a much more responsible position, and it is more trustworthy that they expose they are aware of the AO(EPO/NAO) dilemma.

Which offers a nice segway ... I just have noticed that we are oscillatory in not having dropped blocking since the SSW that took place last winter and associated subsequent -AO. I don't mean to assert that SSW is still a factor. But just to point out 'that's when it began.' I am a big fan of identifying those factors that 'fit' with the baser canvas, because those factors are thus in constructive interference. Constructive interference means their ability to effect the circulation is enhanced because of positive feedback.

It goes similarly to my argument that MJO's are less influential, relative to wave strength, on the field if the WPO is in a suppressive phase (meaning, the circulation associate with permits less latent heat gets involved in the westerlies, which means less L/W/tropical forcing).

In this case, the baser canvas is the lower solar cycle, and the very quantifiable statistical analysis that lower solar correlates with more blocking. What confuses this picture is that currently we are in a local max, with flares and occasional CMEs above the norm. However, I suspect the atmosphere has a memory, and the current local max (which is as expected, a lower max than 'normal maxes') is not enough to off-set the longer term minimum that slated to last to ~ 2020. I see blocking as an enhanced tendency.

Whether there is any correctness to that or not, we do have the blocking. I am not sure I see any reason why that tendency would suddenly abate going into autumn, when if anything, these ancillary hypothesis really only support it continuing.

The other reason is the ENSO maturing into neutral, and weakly positive [maybe] by spring. That lends to a +PNAP ... possibly +PNA intervals.

Looks like a cold snowy winter to me.

Nice discussion.

[tamarack]

Yeah the NWS in BUF had wind chills as low as -70F with temps below zero and 60-70kt winds coming off Lake Erie.

Good luck measuring in 70kt surface winds...

IIRC, the actual snowfall in that monster wasn't all that huge by Buffalo standards. It was the frozen Lake Erie and all the wind that buried the city. A hundred mile fetch to gather snow can result in amazing things. Just 2-3 miles of Aroostook potato country can produce unplowable drifting while up in the woods it's causing few problems.

[blizzardof96]

Just finished my 2013-14 winter outlook. It is now posted on my blog at this link: http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/p/preliminary-winter-2013-14-outlook.html

 

 Here are the winter highlights. Don't hesitate to ask me any questions you may have, I will be more then happy to answer them.

[joey2002]

Just finished my 2013-14 winter outlook. It is now posted on my blog at this link: http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/p/preliminary-winter-2013-14-outlook.html

 

 Here are the winter highlights. Don't hesitate to ask me any questions you may have, I will be more then happy to answer them.

Screen Shot 2013-08-18 at 9-1.23.20 AM.png

 

What about the white zone?

[blizzardof96]

What about the white zone?

Near normal temps and precip. Could be considered wintry battle zone.

[Damage In Tolland]

Near normal temps and precip. Could be considered wintry battle zone.

So the wintry battle zone circles around twds New orleans and N FL?

[weathafella]

What about the white zone?

"The white zone is for loading and unloading....no parking."

[CoastalWx]

"The white zone is for loading and unloading....no parking."

You sicko, thought the same...lol.

[weathafella]

   

 

Getting better....

 

 

Getting bettr still. If this is the case a month from now, lock it. As of now I say it's coming!

[CoastalWx]

Pretty warm Pacific north of 20N.

[ORH_wxman]

Still need more cold water south of the Aleutians if we want to try and build a +PDO type ridge in the PNA/EPO region...or at least to favor it.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

You guys don't want to look at the latest JMA. You'll hate it. A lot. 

[ORH_wxman]

 

You guys don't want to look at the latest JMA. You'll hate it. A lot.

 

I don't think I'd "want" to look at the JMA regardless of what it shows. It doesn't have any skill for long range seasonal predictions.

[Damage In Tolland]

The uneasiness continues

[CoastalWx]

What does the hr 2,120 CFS have?

[ORH_wxman]

 

The uneasiness continues

 

Don't worry, in 2-3 months this will all be a faded memory as you wishcast snow event after snow event from Halloween to Thanksgiving.

[CoastalWx]

Don't worry, in 2-3 months this will all be a faded memory as you wishcast snow event after snow event from Halloween to Thanksgiving.

More Feb 25 2013 en route.

[Damage In Tolland]

Don't worry, in 2-3 months this will all be a faded memory as you wishcast snow event after snow event from Halloween to Thanksgiving.

Wishcast or forecast?

[Typhoon Tip]

Still need more cold water south of the Aleutians if we want to try and build a +PDO type ridge in the PNA/EPO region...or at least to favor it.

 

'Chicken or eggs' on that menu.  

 

SS stressing by wind can move SST regions about [obviously] within a longer term statistically suggested PDO.  

 

Right now, the multi-decade curve is negative.  This supports a winter prognostic that sad, frustrating, stressed-out, and at times, outright adversarial posting should result over on the New England regional sub-forum of American WX (DJF).    

 

And from 2008 until present: 

 

2008** -1.00 -0.77 -0.71 -1.52 -1.37 -1.34 -1.67 -1.70 -1.55 -1.76 -1.25 -0.87

2009** -1.40 -1.55 -1.59 -1.65 -0.88 -0.31 -0.53 0.09 0.52 0.27 -0.40 0.08

2010** 0.83 0.82 0.44 0.78 0.62 -0.22 -1.05 -1.27 -1.61 -1.06 -0.82 -1.21

2011** -0.92 -0.83 -0.69 -0.42 -0.37 -0.69 -1.86 -1.74 -1.79 -1.34 -2.33 -1.79

2012** -1.38 -0.85 -1.05 -0.27 -1.26 -0.87 -1.52 -1.93 -2.21 -0.79 -0.59 -0.48

2013** -0.13 -0.43 -0.63 -0.16 0.08 -0.78 -1.25                                                    ...if you can parse these out, they are the 12 months of the year.

 

Obviously, we all know that the PDO doesn't paint the entire picture.  I'm sure there have been big winters during anti-correlated PDOs.  Also, I am wondering if these numbers are more or less important based on their magnitudes.  I mean  "-0.13" ?   really ...   how significant is that ??   Compounding that question further... suppose you have a -2.5 in some Aug, then by that Nov, the value has alleviated to -.5, then, come Dec, -.01 ... the correlation would still suggest the sad, frustrating, stress-out, and at times, adversarial posting atmosphere, but the "second differential" there is still positive -- could that be more telling?  

 

All good questions ...     

[Typhoon Tip]

 

 

Don't worry, in 2-3 months this will all be a faded memory as you wishcast snow event after snow event from Halloween to Thanksgiving.

 

Gosh I hope he has good reason to  

 

It's been a lot of years since we have had a snowy november.  They are great, too.  I mean, why not ?   The only foliage left is browned oak leaves -- otherwise, the landscape is barren and drab.  It would be nice to have a solid front-end loaded winter, and I know that kicking one off in November is on the extreme side of do so, it's got to happen at some point or another again before the sun expands and engulfs the Earth as a Red Giant a billion-and-a-half years from now...  christ.

[Damage In Tolland]

Gosh I hope he has good reason to

It's been a lot of years since we have had a snowy november. They are great, too. I mean, why not ? The only foliage left is browned oak leaves -- otherwise, the landscape is barren and drab. It would be nice to have a solid front-end loaded winter, and I know that kicking one off in November is on the extreme side of do so, it's got to happen at some point or another again before the sun expands and engulfs the Earth as a Red Giant a billion-and-a-half years from now... christ.

We had a snowy Nov last year with 2 sig snowfalls