powderfreak Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Great post, Tip. Will had touched on that aspect that it may look such a way in the mean composites, but its the ebb and flow, intensification and relaxing of that feature that really leads to the snows. It makes sense as a PV isn't going to park on Montreal and not move or pulse for 4 months straight. I'll admit my biggest winter fear if suppression like 09-10 so I sometimes have trouble conceptualizing the larger picture amid those composite mean snapshots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 November maxes are still in the 40s the last day of the month even at ORH. Mid month averages 50ish. It's not a fukking winter month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 Great post, Tip. Will had touched on that aspect that it may look such a way in the mean composites, but its the ebb and flow, intensification and relaxing of that feature that really leads to the snows. It makes sense as a PV isn't going to park on Montreal and not move or pulse for 4 months straight. I'll admit my biggest winter fear if suppression like 09-10 so I sometimes have trouble conceptualizing the larger picture amid those composite mean snapshots. Oh, right - yeah I didn't see Will's post, but that's definitely the general gist. It's one reason why I kind of cringe a little bit when I see people yelling "-NAO, -NAO, -NAO" without entering any qualification on that, such as whether it is arriving -NAO or weakening. A statically negative NAO is really a bore most of the time, ...unless you like unrelenting cold with no snow. Although, you may do okay with up-slope with persistent NW wind. My dream is a leading -EPO that collapses (ridge retrogrades S) into an emerging +PNA, while there is a weakly negative NAO. That, right there, is bomb incarnate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 15, 2013 Share Posted August 15, 2013 A statically negative NAO is really a bore most of the time, ...unless you like unrelenting cold with no snow. Although, you may do okay with up-slope with persistent NW wind. Boring is right....and in my experience those dont bring much upslope aside from maybe D-2" SHSN activity that's essentially white dust. Usually with a big stable -NAO there's just no moisture up here for that wind to act on unless we are retro-grading lows from the maritimes or something.I'm going to poo-poo my way to a record snow season this year, lol. I don't know why but I'm always really skeptical going into winter...but maybe that's just a defense mechanism to not be disappointed :lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 15, 2013 Author Share Posted August 15, 2013 Big NAO in 2009-10 was so enormous that we got marine garbage and ultimately too warm for snow up to the top Maine while NYC southward cashed in. A very rare scenario. We need NAO but frequently shifting around but it's just one index. Huge winter on the way folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Big NAO in 2009-10 was so enormous that we got marine garbage and ultimately too warm for snow up to the top Maine while NYC southward cashed in. A very rare scenario. We need NAO but frequently shifting around but it's just one index. Huge winter on the way folks. The NAO can shift from E to W and vice versa too. We def want a predominately -NAO in the winter...because that usually implies shifting around. Obviously if it stays completely static then it isn't as good but its quite rare you have a big -NAO in the winter that doesn't shift around. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Yea, I guess I could have included e and ne VT with NH and ME, as part of snowpackfetishville. Unless the PV is centered on your grape, the ebbs and flows of within the sea of utter choas is the main determinant in whether or not you are spinking football, or hanging yourself from your heater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 The NAO can shift from E to W and vice versa too. We def want a predominately -NAO in the winter...because that usually implies shifting around. Obviously if it stays completely static then it isn't as good but its quite rare you have a big -NAO in the winter that doesn't shift around. . Right...it's inherent of most neg NAO regimes to have the PV closer to us here in the mid latitudes. This is crucial because it's the percise movement of that PV that exerts a great influence on the exact track of individual storm systems....and with the vortex so close to us, this can make all the difference between a KU, and an FU, especially since the movement of the PV is susceptible to the same wobbles as hurricanes because they are both prone to the small, subtle perturbations within the atmosphere. Almost any intense meteorological entity will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 The first 12 days of March have colder averages than 11/30. Mid-November (11/15) has an average temp of 40F (47/33) at ORH. The same as April 2nd. 50s for lower elevations as you mentioned. The first 9 days of November average over 50F for highs even at ORH. To my very amateur mind, I would count roughly December 6-10 through March 6-10 to be meteorological winter, and June 6-10 through a like period of September to be summer. I know that it is rounded or smoothed to December-February and June-August, but I have been played tennis in shorts plenty often in early December, and had more non-pool days in early June than I care to remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Right...it's inherent of most neg NAO regimes to have the PV closer to us here in the mid latitudes. This is crucial because it's the percise movement of that PV that exerts a great influence on the exact track of individual storm systems....and with the vortex so close to us, this can make all the difference between a KU, and an FU, especially since the movement of the PV is susceptible to the same wobbles as hurricanes because they are both prone to the small, subtle perturbations within the atmosphere. Almost any intense meteorological entity will be. As long as you smoke CF exhaust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Lets pray for a couple of these storms... 100mph winds shattering windows and filling houses up with 4"/hr snows. Buffalo during the 1977 blizzard...drifts in excess of 30 feet and wind-packed snow up to 10 feet deep on roads. Its not a real blizzard until your windows break and your shoveling snow from your living room. Car roof-top... Now that's a snowstorm... when the winds are so strong they wind-pack the snow into concrete that's like 6-10 feet thick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Cape Cod was close in Jan '05. That to this day is the most impressive display I've ever seen personally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 any thoughts on some of the modeling trying to hint at a weak el nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Wasn't the Blizzard '77 the one with a WC of -55F? If there ever was one, do you think you'll be ready for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Wasn't the Blizzard '77 the one with a WC of -55F? If there ever was one, do you think you'll be ready for it. Yeah the NWS in BUF had wind chills as low as -70F with temps below zero and 60-70kt winds coming off Lake Erie. Good luck measuring in 70kt surface winds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 any thoughts on some of the modeling trying to hint at a weak el nino.Looks tough for mid ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Actually, what powderfreak fears the most may end up being Ji's salvation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 any thoughts on some of the modeling trying to hint at a weak el nino. The ECMWF looks pretty much neutral right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 16, 2013 Author Share Posted August 16, 2013 Ji will also clean up. I'm going to own Kevin and not ever let him up for air tha winter wrt forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Ji will also clean up. I'm going to own Kevin and not ever let him up for air tha winter wrt forecast.I haven't forecast anything. It's too soon to even make a guess which is what you guys are doing . Oct 15 is earliest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 16, 2013 Author Share Posted August 16, 2013 Ji will also clean up. I'm going to own Kevin and not ever let him up for air tha winter wrt forecast.I haven't forecast anything. It's too soon to even make a guess which is what you guys are doing . Oct 15 is earliest Cop out. We'll bump your negative posts. 10/15 is late these days. Bad sales strategy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Cop out. We'll bump your negative posts. 10/15 is late these days. Bad sales strategy.How are my posts negative? All Ive said is I'm nervous and uneasy about winter. That could go one way or another. I've never heard of locking in 100+ inches if snow and bitter cold wire to wire in mid August .. Too much can change over the next 2-3 months Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 16, 2013 Author Share Posted August 16, 2013 Cop out. We'll bump your negative posts. 10/15 is late these days. Bad sales strategy.How are my posts negative? All Ive said is I'm nervous and uneasy about winter. That could go one way or another. I've never heard of locking in 100+ inches if snow and bitter cold wire to wire in mid August .. Too much can change over the next 2-3 months You know there have been winters over the past 20 years which had torch October and delivered. I personally think the first 6-8 weeks of fall are aoa normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 16, 2013 Author Share Posted August 16, 2013 And Kevin, it won't be wire to wire but it will be strong for the majority of winter IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 And Kevin, it won't be wire to wire but it will be strong for the majority of winter IMHO.What if all the good signs on Aug 16 shat the bed come Oct 15? Will you stay the course? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 16, 2013 Author Share Posted August 16, 2013 And Kevin, it won't be wire to wire but it will be strong for the majority of winter IMHO.What if all the good signs on Aug 16 shat the bed come Oct 15? Will you stay the course? If we're good through September I'm all in. NPAC is everything to me (and nao). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 If we're good through September I'm all in. NPAC is everything to me (and nao).I think snow cover and ice cover are more important to us than Nao. And that we just don't know yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 And Kevin, it won't be wire to wire but it will be strong for the majority of winter IMHO. What's your snowfall projection? We've heard lots of descriptors like harsh winter, strong winter, etc... Above 60" at BOS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted August 16, 2013 Author Share Posted August 16, 2013 I think snow cover and ice cover are more important to us than Nao. And that we just don't know yet Who's talking about snow and ice.? I'm talking ssta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 16, 2013 Share Posted August 16, 2013 Who's talking about snow and ice.? I'm talking ssta.I am. If we don't lay a solid foundation early up north it has a major impact on us. The examples are numerous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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