The early speculation on winter 2013-14

[ORH_wxman]

 

Who wants a PV in SE Canada!?  lol... that's frigid and suppressed.

 

How were the following winters at Mansfield?

2008-2009

2003-2004

2002-2003

1993-1994

1985-1986

1980-1981

1976-1977

1970-1971

1969-1970

My guess is that while there are probably a dead ratter or two in there, they are pretty darn good and would be above average for sure. But I didn't actually match any of these up to Mansfield's snow data so not sure exactly how the breakdown would be.

They all featured a mean PV or sig PV lobe in SE Canada.

[powderfreak]

 

 

How were the following winters at Mansfield?

2008-2009

2003-2004

2002-2003

1993-1994

1985-1986

1980-1981

1976-1977

1970-1971

1969-1970

My guess is that while there are probably a dead ratter or two in there, they are pretty darn good and would be above average for sure. But I didn't actually match any of these up to Mansfield's snow data so not sure exactly how the breakdown would be.

They all featured a mean PV or sig PV lobe in SE Canada.

 

lol... nice.  I have a feeling you just owned me in this argument.  I'll try to get a composite of those dates on Mansfield and get back to ya in a few minutes.

[Damage In Tolland]

If this was Oct 15 th I'd be pumped and amped up for a snowy and cold Nov-Feb. hopefully we still have this look in 2 months when it actually means something

[CoastalWx]

lol... nice.  I have a feeling you just owned me in this argument.  I'll try to get a composite of those dates on Mansfield and get back to ya in a few minutes.

 

Don't forget it's all about location and orientation of the PV or PV lobe. You might still be snake bitten from '09-'10 but that was just a severely -NAO.

[powderfreak]

lol... nice.  I have a feeling you just owned me in this argument.  I'll try to get a composite of those dates on Mansfield and get back to ya in a few minutes.

 

Jesus H.... I guess my idea was 100% wrong.  If this is what a SE Canada PV looks like, then it'll do.

 

Here are the year's Will listed... lol, pretty unanimous above normal snowpack.

 

[powderfreak]

Don't forget it's all about location and orientation of the PV or PV lobe. You might still be snake bitten from '09-'10 but that was just a severely -NAO.

 

That's exactly it... I know I'm not the only one scarred by that.  Dryslot and the other NNE'ers know the pain of that winter.  We'll have to get over that one.

[ORH_wxman]

 

Don't forget it's all about location and orientation of the PV or PV lobe. You might still be snake bitten from '09-'10 but that was just a severely -NAO.

 

PV didnt spend much time in SE Canada that winter anyway...heights were above average there as they got the butt-end of monster blocking...the PV lobes were way out to the east in the Atlantic ocean...however for that one big event 2/5-6/10, we had a pv lobe near N Maine. But most of that pattern was just obscene blocking.

However, I will also remind people that we can also benefit from that blocking...even NNE. Just ask NNE peeps how they would like 1968-1969? That is the most -NAO winter on record...barely ahead of 2009-2010.

[ORH_wxman]

Jesus H.... I guess my idea was 100% wrong.  If this is what a SE Canada PV looks like, then it'll do.

 

Here are the year's Will listed... lol, pretty unanimous above normal snowpack.

 

gendateplot.php3.png

 

A mean PV in SE Canada is good for all of us...obviously you will have some systems that miss you to the south...but remember that the PV location is the mean...not static. So when it reorients itself or lifts north a bit, you will get the goods.

 

Think of it this way...when you miss snow in the SE Canada PV pattern, what happens? You stay cold and might even get some light/moderate upslope snow showers and such on the back end CAA. What happens when you miss the snow on a big SE ridge pattern? You might torch to 50F and rain before refreezing everything.

 

Suppression can be scary and annoying...esp if its a few storms in a row watching lower snowfall climo areas clean up while you are smoking cirrus and 5F...but those patterns almost always eventually deliever further north. The fresh supply of cold is also good for snowpack.

[CoastalWx]

 

 

PV didnt spend much time in SE Canada that winter anyway...heights were above average there as they got the butt-end of monster blocking...the PV lobes were way out to the east in the Atlantic ocean...however for that one big event 2/5-6/10, we had a pv lobe near N Maine. But most of that pattern was just obscene blocking.

However, I will also remind people that we can also benefit from that blocking...even NNE. Just ask NNE peeps how they would like 1968-1969? That is the most -NAO winter on record...barely ahead of 2009-2010.

 

Yeah I think that winter scared the folks in NNE quite a bit, but like you said...that was a PV lobe further east and really some bad luck more than anything. We saw some good results in February for interior NY state. 

[weathafella]

If this was Oct 15 th I'd be pumped and amped up for a snowy and cold Nov-Feb. hopefully we still have this look in 2 months when it actually means something

Since when did November become deep winter? What is your climo...3-4 inches?

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah I think that winter scared the folks in NNE quite a bit, but like you said...that was a PV lobe further east and really some bad luck more than anything. We saw some good results in February for interior NY state. 

 

 

Every winter has its own flavor and details...there will be outliers amidst a general theme even in similar longwave patterns. I mean, even that 2/5/10 system would have been much more like PDII if it weren't for a smaller scale PV lobe feature rotating down at the worst possible time....stuff like that is just the inherent variability with weather. Probably 7 or 8 times out of 10 in that longwave setup, we'll get in on the bigtime snows of that storm. We rolled the dice and unfortunately got the 20-30% of the time that we get screwed. Its going to happen, otherwise we'd get more big snowstorms than we do.

 

But obviously a lot of people can get scarred by such instances and then it creates a biased thinking that causes us to generalize conclusions rather than pointing to a very specific set of ingrediants that occurred to cause us to miss a big storm. We all do it...to different degrees anyway.

 

Sometimes we just have to step back and analyze the larger picture which admittedly isn't always the easiest to do.

[Damage In Tolland]

Since when did November become deep winter? What is your climo...3-4 inches?

Ive just always considered Nov kind of a colder type month. ESP as we get into middle and late month.

[CoastalWx]

Every winter has its own flavor and details...there will be outliers amidst a general theme even in similar longwave patterns. I mean, even that 2/5/10 system would have been much more like PDII if it weren't for a smaller scale PV lobe feature rotating down at the worst possible time....stuff like that is just the inherent variability with weather. Probably 7 or 8 times out of 10 in that longwave setup, we'll get in on the bigtime snows of that storm. We rolled the dice and unfortunately got the 20-30% of the time that we get screwed. Its going to happen, otherwise we'd get more big snowstorms than we do.

 

But obviously a lot of people can get scarred by such instances and then it creates a biased thinking that causes us to generalize conclusions rather than pointing to a very specific set of ingrediants that occurred to cause us to miss a big storm. We all do it...to different degrees anyway.

 

Sometimes we just have to step back and analyze the larger picture which admittedly isn't always the easiest to do.

 

Like March is not a winter month?

[ORH_wxman]

Since when did November become deep winter? What is your climo...3-4 inches?

 

 

ORH averages about 3.3" so he is probably 2.5-3" inches at most.

[CoastalWx]

Every winter has its own flavor and details...there will be outliers amidst a general theme even in similar longwave patterns. I mean, even that 2/5/10 system would have been much more like PDII if it weren't for a smaller scale PV lobe feature rotating down at the worst possible time....stuff like that is just the inherent variability with weather. Probably 7 or 8 times out of 10 in that longwave setup, we'll get in on the bigtime snows of that storm. We rolled the dice and unfortunately got the 20-30% of the time that we get screwed. Its going to happen, otherwise we'd get more big snowstorms than we do.

 

But obviously a lot of people can get scarred by such instances and then it creates a biased thinking that causes us to generalize conclusions rather than pointing to a very specific set of ingrediants that occurred to cause us to miss a big storm. We all do it...to different degrees anyway.

 

Sometimes we just have to step back and analyze the larger picture which admittedly isn't always the easiest to do.

 

Good post. Likewise the same good winters might not be as kind too. That's what makes forecasting fun. There is always something to humble us....and just when you think you mastered the art of forecasting...boom.

[CoastalWx]

Winter can't come soon enough. Nevermind experiencing it...the forecasting itself is quite enjoyable....even if it's tracking the rasn line through your backyard.

[powderfreak]

A mean PV in SE Canada is good for all of us...obviously you will have some systems that miss you to the south...but remember that the PV location is the mean...not static. So when it reorients itself or lifts north a bit, you will get the goods.

Think of it this way...when you miss snow in the SE Canada PV pattern, what happens? You stay cold and might even get some light/moderate upslope snow showers and such on the back end CAA. What happens when you miss the snow on a big SE ridge pattern? You might torch to 50F and rain before refreezing everything.

Suppression can be scary and annoying...esp if its a few storms in a row watching lower snowfall climo areas clean up while you are smoking cirrus and 5F...but those patterns almost always eventually deliever further north. The fresh supply of cold is also good for snowpack.

That's a great point.... missing south hurts but it's better than the alternative (rain). We can usually get light snows with a trough even if the storm is way suppressed. It becomes an emotional complex though once you miss like 3 good storms in a row to the south...but you are right, one eventually gets up here.

I blame it on 2009-2010....I wasn't alive for 1969 but severe blocking scares me lol.

[ORH_wxman]

Here's a game for Kevin...guess which month is month "A" and which one is month "B" (stats are for ORH)

 

 

Month.....Avg temp....Avg snowfall

 

"A"..........33.9F.............14.0"

"B"..........40.1F...............3.3"

 

 

 

One of these months, Kevin considers a winter month, and the other he does not.

[Brian5671]

Winter can't come soon enough. Nevermind experiencing it...the forecasting itself is quite enjoyable....even if it's tracking the rasn line through your backyard.

unless you get an 01-02 or 11-12 type winter (which never seems to be well forecast in advance)

[Damage In Tolland]

Here's a game for Kevin...guess which month is month "A" and which one is month "B" (stats are for ORH)

Month.....Avg temp....Avg snowfall

"A"..........33.9F.............14.0"

"B"..........40.1F...............3.3"

One of these months, Kevin considers a winter month, and the other he does not.

Would you rather have cold and snow in Nov or March? Gun to knee

[Brian5671]

Ive just always considered Nov kind of a colder type month. ESP as we get into middle and late month.

I'll give you the last week...I always feel like snow chances are realistic by then.  (although past 2 years we've had snow 10/29 and 11/7)

[CoastalWx]

unless you get an 01-02 or 11-12 type winter (which never seems to be well forecast in advance)

 

Well that's the game we play, right? But...I know those winters do not happen all that often..otherwise I wouldn't avg in the low 40s for snow.  Living in eastern SNE, we get to experience some powerful storms and while all may not be snow...it's a phenomenon I love.

[ORH_wxman]

Would you rather have cold and snow in Nov or March? Gun to knee

 

 

Definitely November, esp near T-day...hell, I'd rather have snow in late October than March....but guess what? It doesn't snow much in late October or November because they aren't snowy/wintry months.

 

Late November can start to get wintry, but there's more 60F torches in late November than in early March. Try getting a 2 foot snow bomb in November...good luck. March has them.

[powderfreak]

Every winter has its own flavor and details...there will be outliers amidst a general theme even in similar longwave patterns. I mean, even that 2/5/10 system would have been much more like PDII if it weren't for a smaller scale PV lobe feature rotating down at the worst possible time....stuff like that is just the inherent variability with weather. Probably 7 or 8 times out of 10 in that longwave setup, we'll get in on the bigtime snows of that storm. We rolled the dice and unfortunately got the 20-30% of the time that we get screwed. Its going to happen, otherwise we'd get more big snowstorms than we do.

But obviously a lot of people can get scarred by such instances and then it creates a biased thinking that causes us to generalize conclusions rather than pointing to a very specific set of ingrediants that occurred to cause us to miss a big storm. We all do it...to different degrees anyway.

Sometimes we just have to step back and analyze the larger picture which admittedly isn't always the easiest to do.

Several great posts today, ORH.

All excellent things to consider...sometimes it's hard to look at it like that, as I can get stuck with blinders on based on past set-ups. But you are right, any small difference in the atmosphere can create a much different output given the same long-wave patterns and upper air anomalies.

[powderfreak]

Definitely November, esp near T-day...hell, I'd rather have snow in late October than March....but guess what? It doesn't snow much in late October or November because they aren't snowy/wintry months.

more confusion over "what would you rather have" rather than the realities of climo.

[CapturedNature]

Since when did November become deep winter? What is your climo...3-4 inches?

 

ORH averages about 3.3" so he is probably 2.5-3" inches at most.

 

My average has been 3.1".  That's about 0.6" more than April.  The rest of the winter (December, January, February and March) are double digits.

[weathafella]

November maxes are still in the 40s the last day of the month even at ORH. Mid month averages 50ish. It's not a fukking winter month!

[ORH_wxman]

November maxes are still in the 40s the last day of the month even at ORH. Mid month averages 50ish. It's not a fukking winter month!

 

 

The first 12 days of March have colder averages than 11/30.

 

Mid-November (11/15) has an average temp of 40F (47/33) at ORH. The same as April 2nd. 50s for lower elevations as you mentioned. The first 9 days of November average over 50F for highs even at ORH.

[tamarack]

 

How were the following winters at Mansfield?

2008-2009

2003-2004

2002-2003

1993-1994

1985-1986

1980-1981

1976-1977

1970-1971

1969-1970

My guess is that while there are probably a dead ratter or two in there, they are pretty darn good and would be above average for sure. But I didn't actually match any of these up to Mansfield's snow data so not sure exactly how the breakdown would be.

They all featured a mean PV or sig PV lobe in SE Canada.

More of a mixed bag up my way. Farmington averaged 92.6" for the 9 winters, while their average for the period 1969-70 thru 2008-09 is 91.3". Sneak 68-69 in there and all the numbers go up. 1970-71 was their 2nd snowiest winter with 154" while 80-81 is last among 120 with 43". None of the others fall into either the top or bottom 20%. Of course, snowfall isn't everything; 02-03 was well under the average and 93-94 just a bit over, but both were good snowpack winters (at least 02-03 had persistent snow cover if not too deep.)

[Typhoon Tip]

Jesus H.... I guess my idea was 100% wrong.  If this is what a SE Canada PV looks like, then it'll do.

 

Here are the year's Will listed... lol, pretty unanimous above normal snowpack.

 

gendateplot.php3.png

 

I suspect taking the season as a whole "hides" the real correlation here.   Yes, the vortex helps, but it isn't really the vortex that is doing the deed, it's the book-end relaxation and or intensification intervals that is getting the job done. 

 

It has to do with large scale restoring/storminess that results when there are larger movements of differentiating mass fields *(much in the way of Archambault statistical findings...), that occurs when the vortex is either intensifying, or weakening.   

 

If the vortex is present and has been imparting cold, then ... relaxes, the return flow sets up overrunning type events in the means, and those can be remarkably snowy (think SW flow events on 'roids, like 2008). Even during change-over type events, you can get a solid whack of snow before that happens from overrunning.    

 

Contrasting, a PNAP pulsation can send a L/W axis into the E that goes on to do a big coastal, and then that system rotates up as a cut-off and establishes the SPV.    

 

In situ vortex presence can be a very suppressive force.  Rarely does a major snow result while the vortex is raging with deep contouring and very fast balanced mid-level flow.  Although, clippers can sometimes obfuscate matters... By and large, the bigger precipitation events tend to occur as the vortex is arriving or departing in intensity.