The early speculation on winter 2013-14

[ORH_wxman]

Man you guys do snowpack so well over there in the Maine foothills...speaking essentially for elevations 1,000ft and lower.  When like less than 1,000ft can climb to 48" or greater is pretty freakin' impressive.  You'd never see that at 1,000ft or lower in VT I don't think... even CAD spots like eastern VT can grow to big packs, but its usually those that live at 1,000-2,000ft elevation that would even have a shot at that.

 

2000-2001 though was probably close to that level even in the mountain valleys... years like 2010-2011 are more like the big-winter max depth of 36-40" in the mountain valleys.  Getting that 4 foot mark is very hard to do.

 

 

I've measured over 40" of snowpack in ORH twice...first in January 1996 and then again in March of 2001. Early February 2011 we peaked at 38 inches...close but no cigar. I really draw the line at about 35 inches when it becomes "Special" for this area. Most winters we can get  20"+ on the ground at some point but over 30" it gets exponentially harder with each inch.

 

E slope of the Berkshires ad then up into the Monadnocks/extreme N ORH hills are probably the best snowpack spots I can think of under 1500 feet in SNE that can compete with those 500-600 foot CAD valley spots in NNE. Where I am is slightly too far south, but still a pretty solid snowpack location given the latitude/elevation/denser population.

[Typhoon Tip]

I've measured over 40" of snowpack in ORH twice...first in January 1996 and then again in March of 2001. Early February 2011 we peaked at 38 inches...close but no cigar. I really draw the line at about 35 inches when it becomes "Special" for this area. Most winters we can get  20"+ on the ground at some point but over 30" it gets exponentially harder with each inch.

 

E slope of the Berkshires ad then up into the Monadnocks/extreme N ORH hills are probably the best snowpack spots I can think of under 1500 feet in SNE that can compete with those 500-600 foot CAD valley spots in NNE. Where I am is slightly too far south, but still a pretty solid snowpack location given the latitude/elevation/denser population.

 

 

Same for me... but I also am not living up in the hills of ORH -- though I am wondering if some guys backyard down in the city, its self, would be different than climbing Rt 9 toward the AP.  Anyway, it's harder to get the pack over 35" down here in valley country/coastal plain areas.   I've done it once; early January of 1996 just before the thaw that year.  36.1" on the level level, calm wind, sunny afternoon, 2 days after a snow, at the time, Acton.   I got to 32" in Ayer in 2010 as the greatest depth.   Last year we had 20+ on two separate occasions, post the Feb and March blizzards.

 

That's why my new geek out number is 40".  One time at 35+ is in the books, next goal is at minimum a repeat, but I'm interested in 40"

[CoastalWx]

While not the deepest, the most legit snowpack I've ever encountered was during Jan and Feb 2011. That was legit snowpack you could walk on, not the phantom fluff 30"+ snowpack that melts a day later. I could actually walk on it...that to me was the most impressive aspect of it. My deepest was probably briefly close to 35" during Jan 2005. I think areas just near the canal probably had close to 40".

[Typhoon Tip]

While not the deepest, the most legit snowpack I've ever encountered was during Jan and Feb 2011. That was legit snowpack you could walk on, not the phantom fluff 30"+ snowpack that melts a day later. I could actually walk on it...that to me was the most impressive aspect of it. My deepest was probably briefly close to 35" during Jan 2005. I think areas just near the canal probably had close to 40".

 

It's a good point actually, and one I danced around earlier, too.    I like to wait 2 or 3 days past the most recent snow to validate a "pack".   Sometimes no, like if you get a blue bomb you know that it's about as packed as it is going to get, and you better measure or you lose to melt.  There is a sweet period of time in there, where it's settled, but not damaged yet by the inevitable light rain at 39 that's gotta happen before the next snow chance...

[CapturedNature]

'Special' for me is 30".  That's twice my average peak snow pack and I've done that twice and come close a third time in 29 winters.  2011 was something special.  The pack was so complex and it lasted a long time, considering that we didn't get much snow past early February.  I remember walking on it and falling through a couple of times (I'm a bigger guy) up to my waist in the woods.  Some of my taps were over my head when I pulled them in April.

 

I think we do OK here, relatively speaking, for snow retention.  I average 71 days with a trace or better of snow on the ground.  Last year was pretty cool and you can still see snow in the woods on the Google earth imagery taken in mid-April.  You can spot the good retention spots across the area....lol.

[NECT]

Agreed... if I had to pick, I'd take best snows in Nov-Jan over Feb-Apr.  Front end is better for the reason you stated... build the snowpack early and that'll likely hold all season long, at least on the mountains.  Get the stake up to 60" by Christmas and go from there.  Even if snowfall tapers off in the spring, there'll at least be some snowfalls to enjoy on the already set-up base.  I also really enjoy a good, big December snowstorm (like 15"+) for that reason as well... those 15 inches will likely stick around for months without total melt-out, whereas that same system in mid-March can be melted by the following week depending on the pattern.

Maybe? But to me the big thing is to avoid the lakes cutter that sends a couple inches of rain into NNE. The mountains can pick up a few inches here and there time after time; add a few good dumps and there's a great season in the making. One nasty day of 50's and rain can kill a modest snowpack.

[weathafella]

Back when BOS was measuring snow depth, I believe even they were approaching 30 in January 1995. They came pretty close in 2004-05 as well.

[ORH_wxman]

Back when BOS was measuring snow depth, I believe even they were approaching 30 in January 1995. They came pretty close in 2004-05 as well.

 

 

1996 you mean. They did crack 30 inches for snow depth that month. It broke the record at the time previously set in 1978.

 

I measured 43 inches at 600 feet elevation in ORH after the January 12, 1996 storm. (that one was mostly rain in BOS) Too bad it wasn't a year earlier when they still measured snow depth at ORH airport.

[weathafella]

1996 you mean. They did crack 30 inches for snow depth that month. It broke the record at the time previously set in 1978.

 

I measured 43 inches at 600 feet elevation in ORH after the January 12, 1996 storm. (that one was mostly rain in BOS) Too bad it wasn't a year earlier when they still measured snow depth at ORH airport.

Yeah I must be daft to blow the year! It was pretty deep in January and early February 1994 and again 2005 but the dumpings we got in December and the early January blizzard that nailed DC-PWM really was the icing. I remember xc skiing the morning before the January storm started and there was a deep snowpack in the arboretum even then.

[tamarack]

 

Man you guys do snowpack so well over there in the Maine foothills...speaking essentially for elevations 1,000ft and lower.  When like less than 1,000ft can climb to 48" or greater is pretty freakin' impressive.  You'd never see that at 1,000ft or lower in VT I don't think... even CAD spots like eastern VT can grow to big packs, but its usually those that live at 1,000-2,000ft elevation that would even have a shot at that.

 

2000-2001 though was probably close to that level even in the mountain valleys... years like 2010-2011 are more like the big-winter max depth of 36-40" in the mountain valleys.  Getting that 4 foot mark is very hard to do.

Water content (no surprise there.) In 15 winters at about 385' I've recorded 115 events 4"+ with ratio avg 10.73 to 1, and 24 events 10"+ with ratio 10.90. My 3 storms of 20"+ did better, 13.31. As a general rule, a winter without major thaws (like last Jan 31) will attain a max depth near to 1/3 of total winter snowfall. 2008-09 was an exception, reaching 49" though the total was 101.5", thanks to 24.5" on 2/22-23. Depth actually reached about 51" (stake was well plastered) as accum ended about 10 AM on the 23rd but was 49" at my 9 PM obs time. 24 hr later it had settled to 43", easily my biggest one-day settle (non-April storms only.)

Farther south one gets much less snow-on-snow accum. About the only winter that did so significantly in my 21 yr (1950-71) at 690' in NNJ was 1960-61. Immediatley after the 24" of solid snow (NYC got 2.62" LE and I'd guess we had about the same) on Feb 3-4, we had over 40" OG, though it was "measured" only by the difficulty of wallowing thru it. (I was about 5'8" at the time.) Three COOP locations 10-15 miles to my NW and slightly higher recorded max depths of 47", 50", and 52". One had reached 41" in Jan 1948, building on 34" measured from the post-Christmas dump, but other than that, 36" was the tallest I've seen for NNJ places. Other than 60-61, I don't think we ever reached 30" at my home - might've been close on 3/19/56.

[weathafella]

Man you guys do snowpack so well over there in the Maine foothills...speaking essentially for elevations 1,000ft and lower. When like less than 1,000ft can climb to 48" or greater is pretty freakin' impressive. You'd never see that at 1,000ft or lower in VT I don't think... even CAD spots like eastern VT can grow to big packs, but its usually those that live at 1,000-2,000ft elevation that would even have a shot at that. 2000-2001 though was probably close to that level even in the mountain valleys... years like 2010-2011 are more like the big-winter max depth of 36-40" in the mountain valleys. Getting that 4 foot mark is very hard to do.Water content (no surprise there.) In 15 winters at about 385' I've recorded 115 events 4"+ with ratio avg 10.73 to 1, and 24 events 10"+ with ratio 10.90. My 3 storms of 20"+ did better, 13.31. As a general rule, a winter without major thaws (like last Jan 31) will attain a max depth near to 1/3 of total winter snowfall. 2008-09 was an exception, reaching 49" though the total was 101.5", thanks to 24.5" on 2/22-23. Depth actually reached about 51" (stake was well plastered) as accum ended about 10 AM on the 23rd but was 49" at my 9 PM obs time. 24 hr later it had settled to 43", easily my biggest one-day settle (non-April storms only.)Farther south one gets much less snow-on-snow accum. About the only winter that did so significantly in my 21 yr (1950-71) at 690' in NNJ was 1960-61. Immediatley after the 24" of solid snow (NYC got 2.62" LE and I'd guess we had about the same) on Feb 3-4, we had over 40" OG, though it was "measured" only by the difficulty of wallowing thru it. (I was about 5'8" at the time.) Three COOP locations 10-15 miles to my NW and slightly higher recorded max depths of 47", 50", and 52". One had reached 41" in Jan 1948, building on 34" measured from the post-Christmas dump, but other than that, 36" was the tallest I've seen for NNJ places. Other than 60-61, I don't think we ever reached 30" at my home - might've been close on 3/19/56.

Tamarack, you're maybe a year older than me but those dates (also growing up in NNJ) bring among my best snow memories. Maybe the Pirates win the ws this year and we get an entire east coast hurricane to help 1960-61 walk through the door.

[OKpowdah]

Its more of an autumn (specifically October) +AO has a big correlation to a winter -AO, but that hasn't held up well recently.

 

Right. There's a small spectral spike around 6-month for the NAO and AO, which suggests the bias flips every 3 months. Hence, +NAO in the fall has a correlation to a -NAO winter. And furthermore, a -NAO summer correlates to a -NAO winter.

 

But it is small, and is easily dominated by other factors

[Ginx snewx]

Right. There's a small spectral spike around 6-month for the NAO and AO, which suggests the bias flips every 3 months. Hence, +NAO in the fall has a correlation to a -NAO winter. And furthermore, a -NAO summer correlates to a -NAO winter.

 

But it is small, and is easily dominated by other factors

Whats the AO correlation?

[OKpowdah]

Whats the AO correlation?

 

The same. Small, but it's there.

[tamarack]

 

Tamarack, you're maybe a year older than me but those dates (also growing up in NNJ) bring among my best snow memories. Maybe the Pirates win the ws this year and we get an entire east coast hurricane to help 1960-61 walk through the door.

Works for me, as long as storms aren't as supressed as that winter. The local COOP measured 4" in the Dec 12-13 event, but during the Jan-Feb period when places within 50-100 miles of NYC were getting 25-45" snow and record snowpack, Farmington had 1.5", whiffing completely on the Feb 3-4 storm. Only a 9" total for April brought the winter up to 80% of avg.

Other than closing the HS at noon (always worthwhile), Donna didn't do all that much in the Jersey Highlands, though the idiot friend who took out his Sailfish got a broken mast for his adventure.

[weathafella]

   

 

Getting better....

 

 

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

   

 

Getting better....

 

 

 

You guys should really see the daily CFS. It's just ridiculous in the cold and snow department. Here's the link: http://www.metcheck.com/WORLD/usa.asp

[CoastalWx]

So the eurosip came out with again ridging into eastern Ak and NW Canada. Looks like it's also going for a -AO too. It does have a PV like feature in SE Canada.

[weathafella]

So the eurosip came out with again ridging into eastern Ak and NW Canada. Looks like it's also going for a -AO too. It does have a PV like feature in SE Canada.

Unreal how everything is falling into place. When I've worried in early summer I've been right. When bullish in early summer I've been right. This year I need ear protection the signal is so loud!

[ORH_wxman]

 

So the eurosip came out with again ridging into eastern Ak and NW Canada. Looks like it's also going for a -AO too. It does have a PV like feature in SE Canada.

 

That is a pretty darn cold look for us.

Been awhile since we had something like that. Maybe '03-'04 or '04-'05.

[Ginx snewx]

Unreal how everything is falling into place. When I've worried in early summer I've been right. When bullish in early summer I've been right. This year I need ear protection the signal is so loud!

As much as everyone disses the CFS 2 , it has been rock steady as you have been.

[Ginx snewx]

 

 

That is a pretty darn cold look for us.

Been awhile since we had something like that. Maybe '03-'04 or '04-'05.

Yea it looks great

[CoastalWx]

Well it's early guys..lol. Just remember that, but yeah...at least the early signs look decent for us.

[powderfreak]

Unreal how everything is falling into place. When I've worried in early summer I've been right. When bullish in early summer I've been right. This year I need ear protection the signal is so loud!

 

Who wants a PV in SE Canada!?  lol... that's frigid and suppressed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Man you guys do snowpack so well over there in the Maine foothills...speaking essentially for elevations 1,000ft and lower.  When like less than 1,000ft can climb to 48" or greater is pretty freakin' impressive.  You'd never see that at 1,000ft or lower in VT I don't think... even CAD spots like eastern VT can grow to big packs, but its usually those that live at 1,000-2,000ft elevation that would even have a shot at that.

 

2000-2001 though was probably close to that level even in the mountain valleys... years like 2010-2011 are more like the big-winter max depth of 36-40" in the mountain valleys.  Getting that 4 foot mark is very hard to do.

 Yea....Vermont isn't the prime spot for snowpack retention throughout NE.....it's from about Dedrite's spot, and especially points to the n and east throughout the interior of ME.....removed from the modifying effect of the CT river valley, and protected from southwesterly pushes by the mountains to the west.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Who wants a PV in SE Canada!?  lol... that's frigid and suppressed.

 

At least there can be LES. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Right. There's a small spectral spike around 6-month for the NAO and AO, which suggests the bias flips every 3 months. Hence, +NAO in the fall has a correlation to a -NAO winter. And furthermore, a -NAO summer correlates to a -NAO winter.

 

But it is small, and is easily dominated by other factors

 

The spectral correlation (lag) I have read about related to going from winter --> summer, and how -AO tend to flip sign (for whatever physics) lending to big mid-latitude heat during subsequent warm season.

 

I am not aware of any study of summer --> winter.  Interesting.   I have read that increased frequency of recurving TC has a correlation to +AO; perhaps that is factorable/related. 

 

I was speaking mainly to the papers/hypothesis that greater than normal snow cover from late summer into autumn helps manufacture cold;  colder lower troposphere is then theorized to "stress" the lower tropospheric thickness medium.  A counter-balance is that mid and upper level heights tend to rise due to the enhanced Hadley circulation that results from conservation of mass over the whole, and then ensues blocking ...etc.   Whether the correlation is centered on October or whatever is less impressive to me, because there are no absolute boundaries, spatial or temporal, in the atmosphere.  So if there is more snow than average on Sept 20, it doesn't matter?  yeah, right -- good luck there. 

 

I agree though that there are many factors.  The polar regions of the globe and how they interact with the non-polar regions is the least understood macro-scaled dynamic on the planet.  So it's probably silly to focus on just one.

[weathafella]

Unreal how everything is falling into place. When I've worried in early summer I've been right. When bullish in early summer I've been right. This year I need ear protection the signal is so loud!

Who wants a PV in SE Canada!? lol... that's frigid and suppressed.

Study your great winters.

[powderfreak]

 Yea....Vermont isn't the prime spot for snowpack retention throughout NE.....it's from about Dedrite's spot, and especially points to the n and east throughout the interior of ME.....removed from the modifying effect of the CT river valley, and protected from southwesterly pushes by the mountains to the west.

 

I would put eastern and northeast kingdom areas of VT into the snowpack retention zone as well.  That's two significant terrain barriers east from the Champlain Valley and those high rolling hills really build the snowpack. 

 

The eastern third of VT has more of a NH climo in a way because of the terrain... there is the 4,000ft Green Mountain Spine, then east of that there's the ski town valleys on the east side, then there's another "spine" of general 2,500-3,600ft elevations (like Coles Pond/Walden down the Orange Heights), before eastern VT really starts.

 

East of that second terrain barrier, the climo is essentially like NH/ME with regards to snowpack.  You can see it well on the snowdepth maps from 2007-2008 when it was SWFE after SWFE...the eastern and northeastern like 4 counties are in that same CAD circle as NH/ME. 

 

[powderfreak]

Study your great winters.

 

My great winters? 

 

PV over Montreal has never really been my friend.  I like it more over Toronto to Marquette area, leaving it far enough east not to torch us, but far enough west so we can get into some southwest flow and moisture from time to time.