The early speculation on winter 2013-14

[J.Spin]

You hitting your average and exceeding it seems to hinge a lot on how many west slope upslope events we get...more so than here in Stowe where we sometimes get blocked by Mansfield. Even if we have a plethora of synoptic events, it seems like your area, Bolton up towards Underhill needs some of those 18-24" NW flow fluff bombs to really boost the seasonal totals.

 

Great insight – indeed there seems to be a volatility in seasonal snowfall the more one injects the influence of the west slope into the equation.  With their west slope position, Bolton Valley seems to be even more susceptible to that influence than we are at our location more in line with the spine.  Last season seems like an example, as Bolton only reported 78.5% of average snowfall for their typical monitoring period, while my numbers came in at ~90% of average.

 

 

I also think using Bolton's snowfall numbers can be misleading with its shorter season than the bigger areas like Jay/Stowe/Sugarbush which can see an additional few weeks of accumulations.  A situation like April 2007 where Bolton may close at the beginning of the month, while Stowe picked up 76" that April and stayed open till May 1st, makes it hard to really compare.

 

Agreed, but I think there’s still some utility in Bolton Valley’s snowfall numbers to compare winters, akin to using the snowfall data from the Mt. Mansfield co-op for its continuity, even if we know their actual numbers are rather flawed due to the bucket-style collection method applied on a windy ridgeline.  Bolton Valley has at least got that consistency in covering the snowfall from November (they typically don’t open the lifts until that first week of December, but appear to incorporate the November snowfall numbers as the staff are on hand gearing up for the season) through the first week of April on the higher elevations of the west slope, and in general that period is going to cover 90-95%+ of the seasonal snowfall.  They’re going to miss those big storms that take place in later April (or May for that matter), but you’re definitely getting a good reading on the bulk of the west slope’s ski season.

[OceanStWx]

 

The temps turned around in mid-Jan 2007, but it took until V-Day for the snow to arrive. I measured only 19" thru the end of Jan, then 76" from then on. (For contraast, the previous winter's split was 44" thru 1/31 and 8" after 2/1. Yuck!) For Farmington, 06-07 was 19"/83", mainly because they recorded 23" from V-Day while I measured "only" 15.5" despite 10-15F temps during the heavy stuff. All the inland stations in central/western Maine blew away their records for April snow, and the Patriots' Day event (only time I'll ever record 5" snow and 5" rain from the same storm) may have dumped 4' or more atop Sugarloaf. That year also featured my coldest Feb, coldest April, while March was 5th coldest of 15.

 

Any chance we could relocate powderfreak from Stowe? I would love detailed observations from Sugarloaf.

[powderfreak]

Any chance we could relocate powderfreak from Stowe? I would love detailed observations from Sugarloaf.

Sugarloaf is one of the few other mountains in New England I would seriously consider moving too...it has a similar hard-core ski scene with big terrain and I think they get weather that would be equally exciting even without 40" upslope events. That's another mountain that can really have a western feel.

What GYX has to do for starters is mail a giant 12-foot stake up to Sugarloaf Mountain Operations Center and have them put it somewhere sheltered in the woods off some trail. Then just call or email in daily depths. That would at least work for starters as you can deduce some decent info just based on snowpack changes.

I bet you anything there are several folks that are really into weather and snow, and would help if reached out. Find their snow reporter and go from there...that person is payed to monitor the weather....I get emails from BTV mets on my Stowe email asking what the weather is doing up here etc, especially in marginal situations.

[ORH_wxman]

 

Sugarloaf is one of the few other mountains in New England I would seriously consider moving too...it has a similar hard-core ski scene with big terrain and I think they get weather that would be equally exciting even without 40" upslope events. That's another mountain that can really have a western feel.

 

They get snowstorms out of complete garbage setups that even the Greens can't match...obviously their latitude is a big part of that but their elevation is so impressive for a mountain that far north. They got a few hundred feet on Stowe.

[OceanStWx]

Sugarloaf is one of the few other mountains in New England I would seriously consider moving too...it has a similar hard-core ski scene with big terrain and I think they get weather that would be equally exciting even without 40" upslope events. That's another mountain that can really have a western feel.

What GYX has to do for starters is mail a giant 12-foot stake up to Sugarloaf Mountain Operations Center and have them put it somewhere sheltered in the woods off some trail. Then just call or email in daily depths. That would at least work for starters as you can deduce some decent info just based on snowpack changes.

I bet you anything there are several folks that are really into weather and snow, and would help if reached out. Find their snow reporter and go from there...that person is payed to monitor the weather....I get emails from BTV mets on my Stowe email asking what the weather is doing up here etc, especially in marginal situations.

 

It's quite a duality, with such great observations and records from MWN, but pretty much no clue what ptype is even falling at Sugarloaf unless they post a picture on Facebook.

 

I would love to do more of this at our office. The fact that we assume we know what is going on at these places is a poor effort. I mean we're basically clueless about Pittsburgh, NH.

[powderfreak]

They get snowstorms out of complete garbage setups that even the Greens can't match...obviously their latitude is a big part of that but their elevation is so impressive for a mountain that far north. They got a few hundred feet on Stowe.

Yeah I'd be very intrigued to do some seasons up there...our bread and butter is the 3-8" nickel and dime stuff mixed with bigger synoptic storms, but Sugarloaf can just get crushed synoptically over and over as lows get their act together in the GOM.

The Greens really aren't that big...I mean Mansfield can hold its own, but VT's highest point is lower than those in NY/ME/NH. The Greens just have superior orographics from the concentrated lift caused by a Spine, vs isolated peaks in random order. The air can just go around the typical "cone" like peaks that form a summit point...whereas when you have a long ridge-line that air needs to go up and not around. But VT is more hilly than mountainous in a more general way I think.

[dryslot]

It's quite a duality, with such great observations and records from MWN, but pretty much no clue what ptype is even falling at Sugarloaf unless they post a picture on Facebook.

 

I would love to do more of this at our office. The fact that we assume we know what is going on at these places is a poor effort. I mean we're basically clueless about Pittsburgh, NH.

 

As Scott know's over to Stowe, There can be quite a contrast to whats falling at the summit and back down to the base lodge on many occasions

[nzucker]

It's hard for 06-07 to fully redeem itself after a horrid start. December was one of the mildest on record where I was in VT, and even January was bland aside from the big arctic front in the third week. February through April was absolutely awesome, and there's nothing like experiencing V-day on a college campus like me and powder freak.

[powderfreak]

It's quite a duality, with such great observations and records from MWN, but pretty much no clue what ptype is even falling at Sugarloaf unless they post a picture on Facebook.

I would love to do more of this at our office. The fact that we assume we know what is going on at these places is a poor effort. I mean we're basically clueless about Pittsburgh, NH.

Yeah I'm quite serious in that NWS offices should reach out to the Mountain Operations staff at New England ski areas...these aren't the marketing offices, but folks that are very in tune to weather for snowmaking and grooming. I obviously have marketing background and ties, but I'm based out of Ops. I know BTV has contacts here, at Killington, and Jay Peak based on data and mentions in AFD. We see BTV employees a decent bit as they come in to use the chairlift or snowcats to get up to their instruments and NOAA radio equipment at the summit...so it's good to keep a decent relationship going. We reach out to them sometimes for stuff like chances of lightning during winter operation days and likewise if they reach out, give a good detailed no-BS current condition update.

[OceanStWx]

Yeah I'm quite serious in that NWS offices should reach out to the Mountain Operations staff at New England ski areas...these aren't the marketing offices, but folks that are very in tune to weather for snowmaking and grooming. I obviously have marketing background and ties, but I'm based out of Ops. I know BTV has contacts here, at Killington, and Jay Peak based on data and mentions in AFD. We see BTV employees a decent bit as they come in to use the chairlift or snowcats to get up to their instruments and NOAA radio equipment at the summit...so it's good to keep a decent relationship going. We reach out to them sometimes for stuff like chances of lightning during winter operation days and likewise if they reach out, give a good detailed no-BS current condition update.

 

We do already have the NOAA Wx Radio transmitter up on Sugarloaf. That might not be a bad in road to establishing a relationship.

[ORH_wxman]

It's hard for 06-07 to fully redeem itself after a horrid start. December was one of the mildest on record where I was in VT, and even January was bland aside from the big arctic front in the third week. February through April was absolutely awesome, and there's nothing like experiencing V-day on a college campus like me and powder freak.

 

 

I personally give front loaded winters higher marks than backloaded winters because I enjoy the snow during the holiday season (T-day through New Years), but from a completely objective standpoint, its hard to give bad marks to a winter that produced more than a season's worth of climo snow in a 8-10 week period.

 

There's also something to be said for winters that don't seem to want to end. Obviously the best is when you get both in the same winter...lol.

[weathafella]

It's hard for 06-07 to fully redeem itself after a horrid start. December was one of the mildest on record where I was in VT, and even January was bland aside from the big arctic front in the third week. February through April was absolutely awesome, and there's nothing like experiencing V-day on a college campus like me and powder freak.

I personally give front loaded winters higher marks than backloaded winters because I enjoy the snow during the holiday season (T-day through New Years), but from a completely objective standpoint, its hard to give bad marks to a winter that produced more than a season's worth of climo snow in a 8-10 week period.

There's also something to be said for winters that don't seem to want to end. Obviously the best is when you get both in the same winter...lol.

Which winter was better iyby ;2010-11 or 2012-13? I'm talking your impression, not numbers. I kind of lean 2010-11 because of the fact that snow hung around and the pack was so huge.

[ORH_wxman]

Which winter was better iyby ;2010-11 or 2012-13? I'm talking your impression, not numbers. I kind of lean 2010-11 because of the fact that snow hung around and the pack was so huge.

 

 

I chose 2010-2011 in that poll thread earlier this summer. I could be convinced either way though. 2010 didn't have big snow during the holiday season pre-Christmas either. Both had good snows right after Christmas IMBY. January 2011 was epic, January 2013 was a dead ratter. 2013 finished way stronger but never was as cold as 2011 or the snow as deep...but 2013 did give MBY two HECS including the most impressive pure blizzard I have experienced.

 

Tough choice!

 

I do love deep snow pack and the train of storm after storm in Jan '11 was hard to beat...so that's why I chose it. But I could probably be persuaded toward this past year too. I think if we had been just a tick colder this past winter, I would have chosen it.

[Brian5671]

I personally give front loaded winters higher marks than backloaded winters because I enjoy the snow during the holiday season (T-day through New Years), but from a completely objective standpoint, its hard to give bad marks to a winter that produced more than a season's worth of climo snow in a 8-10 week period.

 

There's also something to be said for winters that don't seem to want to end. Obviously the best is when you get both in the same winter...lol.

I like them better b/c the snow sticks better during the day time (front loaded winters) at least down here, we have alot of storms in Late Feb and March that will have snow melting on contact with pavement and other warmer surfaces during the day whereas the same storm in Dec/Jan would see it stick. 

[dryslot]

I prefer some front end snows to build a base, But also a catch 22 if the ground is not frozen in early Dec

[J.Spin]

I personally give front loaded winters higher marks than backloaded winters because I enjoy the snow during the holiday season (T-day through New Years), but from a completely objective standpoint, its hard to give bad marks to a winter that produced more than a season's worth of climo snow in a 8-10 week period.

 

From a skiing perspective, there’s a lot to be said about front loaded winters as well.  A good November, December, and January can set up a snowpack that will enable immediate access to terrain, and access that will typically last throughout the rest of the season, even if snowfall slows down in February, March, and April.  However, if the substantial snows for opening terrain don’t come until February, that’s essentially two to three months of terrain access that you’re never getting back.  Then of course there are the financial aspects of the resort’s snowpack and overall wintry vibe being in good shape for the holiday season when people are often chomping at the bit to ski.

[weathafella]

I agree. Although there is the "is that all there is?" aspect to front loaded winters, there's nothing as good as deep snow in the heart of winter.

Last year was great in February and March but I hated above freezing and moistening of the snow in March.

[Typhoon Tip]

I agree. Although there is the "is that all there is?" aspect to front loaded winters, there's nothing as good as deep snow in the heart of winter.

Last year was great in February and March but I hated above freezing and moistening of the snow in March.

 

 

Seeing as you asked ... I'm not a big fan of March snow at any time.  

 

My whole thing with winter is the fascination of watching modeling and other indicators lead a significant event, and then watching it come together ... on into now-casting, but then what ?  Postmortem after winter storms can be a particularly punchy time, especially if it is one of those Rosby-rollback scenarios that clears house and heralds in an unending period of non-events.  In fact, sometimes I think it is better to get into one of those ensemble line patterns where you're guaranteed a 4-6"er ever 3.5 days. But that's a different subject.  

 

Anyway, I run a kind of private sickness/obsession every year to see if this is the year I get 40" of snow in pack, not just the day after a big one and settling hasn't had the chance compact things.   In the last 3 winter, two had deep intervals, but neither tied 1995.  Still, that's a pretty good batting average as of late in getting numbers to even rival.   But it is that venture that makes the in-between times in DJF worth it.  By the time March roles around... that's really just not an option any longer, so yeah, if there is a big historical deal on the charts its fun to watch, but the fun runs out in a real hurry in 4 days of melting and blackening of a rotted pack amid a climbing sun angle.  

 

If I had my druthers, I'd move to a convectively interesting location from march ...10 or so, to about May 15, and then check the pattern before moving back.  Spring is just a dicey time of the year in New England.   

[CoastalWx]

That's a real tough choice. Since snowpack is probably the last metric I use the rate a winter (since we really do not have snowpack)..it makes the choice difficult. However, when it does occcur like '10-'11...it makes it special. Probably have to go with '10-'11 since we had almost 20" in Dec 2010 and a general 14-17" in the area from the big mid Jan storm. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Btw, obviously waaay too early to put out a seasonal 'cast, not to mention any veracity therein...  But I am leaning toward a severe winter this year as a very preliminary guess.  

That may change during Autumn, but summer +AO dominance has a fairly robust lag correlation to -AO, and with ENSO seemingly situating a neutral year, that tends to converging a cold+moisture nexus over eastern N/A.  The PNA may be more negative than positive over the longer term curve, but any MJO propagating through the field, wayward west Pac recurving TC...etc, ..if of sufficient strength, would be enough to off-set and then you got a +PNA/-(AO/(EPO/NAO)) compound influence.   Budda bing budda boom.  

 

This is the landscape I'm toying around with and some reasoning as to why.    

[ORH_wxman]

Btw, obviously waaay too early to put out a seasonal 'cast, not to mention any veracity therein...  But I am leaning toward a severe winter this year as a very preliminary guess.  

That may change during Autumn, but summer +AO dominance has a fairly robust lag correlation to -AO, and with ENSO seemingly situating a neutral year, that tends to converging a cold+moisture nexus over eastern N/A.  The PNA may be more negative than positive over the longer term curve, but any MJO propagating through the field, wayward west Pac recurving TC...etc, ..if of sufficient strength, would be enough to off-set and then you got a +PNA/-(AO/(EPO/NAO)) compound influence.   Budda bing budda boom.  

 

This is the landscape I'm toying around with and some reasoning as to why.    

 

 

Its more of an autumn (specifically October) +AO has a big correlation to a winter -AO, but that hasn't held up well recently.

[Typhoon Tip]

Its more of an autumn (specifically October) +AO has a big correlation to a winter -AO, but that hasn't held up well recently.

 

 

I have read it as both Aug on, and October - both actually.  

 

am aware of the 'held up recently' argument but I am less impressed by it for the time being.  The reason is that no teleconnector land, sea nor air is 1::1.   There are going to be years, perhaps even clusters of them that are anti-correlated to the longer term suggestion.   I'll check but I am pretty sure that the AO study is multi-decadal. 

[tamarack]

 

That's a real tough choice. Since snowpack is probably the last metric I use the rate a winter (since we really do not have snowpack)..it makes the choice difficult. However, when it does occcur like '10-'11...it makes it special. Probably have to go with '10-'11 since we had almost 20" in Dec 2010 and a general 14-17" in the area from the big mid Jan storm.

Farther north, snowpack not only gwets deeper, but also more important both for winter sports and (as a trivia note) for my perception of good/bad winters. It's not "real" snowpack in the foothills until it reaches 20", which it's done 12 of 15 winters. Nine have reached 25" but only four have gotten to 30" - median for winter's deepest is 26". March remains an important snow/snowpack month, especially in big winters; three of the four 30"+ have peaked in March. By depth:

49" on 2/23/09

48" on 3/31/01 and 3/1/08

35" on 3/12 05

[CoastalWx]

 

Farther north, snowpack not only gwets deeper, but also more important both for winter sports and (as a trivia note) for my perception of good/bad winters. It's not "real" snowpack in the foothills until it reaches 20", which it's done 12 of 15 winters. Nine have reached 25" but only four have gotten to 30" - median for winter's deepest is 26". March remains an important snow/snowpack month, especially in big winters; three of the four 30"+ have peaked in March. By depth:

49" on 2/23/09

48" on 3/31/01 and 3/1/08

35" on 3/12 05

Yeah it's definitely more important up your way and across NNE in general for winter sports. My biggest rush for winter is the actual tracking, modeling, and witnessing of storms.

[weathafella]

Tip agreeing with my early call.

[CoastalWx]

Tip agreeing with my early call.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

:weenie:

[powderfreak]

From a skiing perspective, there’s a lot to be said about front loaded winters as well.  A good November, December, and January can set up a snowpack that will enable immediate access to terrain, and access that will typically last throughout the rest of the season, even if snowfall slows down in February, March, and April.  However, if the substantial snows for opening terrain don’t come until February, that’s essentially two to three months of terrain access that you’re never getting back.  Then of course there are the financial aspects of the resort’s snowpack and overall wintry vibe being in good shape for the holiday season when people are often chomping at the bit to ski.

 

Agreed... if I had to pick, I'd take best snows in Nov-Jan over Feb-Apr.  Front end is better for the reason you stated... build the snowpack early and that'll likely hold all season long, at least on the mountains.  Get the stake up to 60" by Christmas and go from there.  Even if snowfall tapers off in the spring, there'll at least be some snowfalls to enjoy on the already set-up base.  I also really enjoy a good, big December snowstorm (like 15"+) for that reason as well... those 15 inches will likely stick around for months without total melt-out, whereas that same system in mid-March can be melted by the following week depending on the pattern.

[powderfreak]

 

49" on 2/23/09

48" on 3/31/01 and 3/1/08

35" on 3/12 05

 

Man you guys do snowpack so well over there in the Maine foothills...speaking essentially for elevations 1,000ft and lower.  When like less than 1,000ft can climb to 48" or greater is pretty freakin' impressive.  You'd never see that at 1,000ft or lower in VT I don't think... even CAD spots like eastern VT can grow to big packs, but its usually those that live at 1,000-2,000ft elevation that would even have a shot at that.

 

2000-2001 though was probably close to that level even in the mountain valleys... years like 2010-2011 are more like the big-winter max depth of 36-40" in the mountain valleys.  Getting that 4 foot mark is very hard to do.

[nzucker]

Man you guys do snowpack so well over there in the Maine foothills...speaking essentially for elevations 1,000ft and lower. When like less than 1,000ft can climb to 48" or greater is pretty freakin' impressive. You'd never see that at 1,000ft or lower in VT I don't think... even CAD spots like eastern VT can grow to big packs, but its usually those that live at 1,000-2,000ft elevation that would even have a shot at that.

2000-2001 though was probably close to that level even in the mountain valleys... years like 2010-2011 are more like the big-winter max depth of 36-40" in the mountain valleys. Getting that 4 foot mark is very hard to do.

00-01 had a ridiculous snowpack in parts of New England...I know the area where I lived (Rindge NH) had around 50" on the ground by late March. The pack lasted well into April given the cold end of winter.

10-11 was too back-loaded to develop a huge snowpack, I think, in that area. Most of your snowstorms were in February and March, when the sun angle starts to inhibit retention. We had our big storms in Westchester on 12/26/10, 1/12/11, and 1/27/11, perfect for big snowpack, and the forested areas behind my house had 30" on the ground, more than I had ever seen in Westchester. The ice storm on 2/3 made the most beautiful snowpack I had ever witnessed, 30" with a half inch glaze on top. 70" fell here that winter.