May 4-6 SE Soaker, Discussion & OBS....

[Met1985]

oh, not me. im talking about for the mtns. the ULL looks like it stalled, which means the areas that are seeing rain will continue to do so for several hours. I hope the dams can handle the volume of water coming at them. 

Ya true. Looking at the models it looks like the system will take a jog back West today before slowly moving West again. Not very good at all and if this thing starts to produce thunderstorms then we will have some major flooding on out hands.

[SN_Lover]

Ya true. Looking at the models it looks like the system will take a jog back West today before slowly moving West again. Not very good at all and if this thing starts to produce thunderstorms then we will have some major flooding on out hands.

i cant recall the last time ive seen storms like this train before. 

[wncsnow]

It just keeps pouring here in Marion... Right when i think the back edge is here it pivots around again..

[SN_Lover]

**ALL WESTBOUND LANES OF I-40 CLOSED AT OLD FORT DUE TO LANDSLIDE. ***YOU CANNOT GET AROUND THIS VIA OLD US 70 DUE TO A LANDSLIDE ON THAT ROAD.***

 

the mtns are cut off from the foothills basically in that area....WOWWW

[dsaur]

 

 

  3.65 from the front.  Sun's out, puddles are gone...looks like I need some more rain.  Come on ULL!  T

 

Edit:   Today was mostly sunny, and by mid afternoon you couldn't tell it had rained.  Late some black clouds started to pass over from time to time, but no rain.  Around dusk the rains came.  Nice steady tropical rain.  Picked up another .6 through 11pm.  Nice!  T

[Met1985]

Looks like the sun will come out which might not be a good thing. If we get enough heating we could see some severe storms firing up like AL had yesterday. I would like to see some pics out from Boone this morning.

[calculus1]

Well, MBY finally got on board the train around midnight.  I've picked up around 2.25 inches since midnight after 1.35 inches yesterday.  Wow.  Nowhere near MM's totals, but pretty heavy amounts for MBY, nonetheless.  It looks like I'm on the edge of the last spoke of precip here, so maybe I'll get a break soon before more precip fires up this afternoon.

 

Crawl space is getting damp...

[Isopycnic]

I now blame Jordan lake for all our failures.

You're just now noticing this? 

 

0.05" so far.

[NCWX]

I was hoping for more rain here in Greenville. But so far very little. The radar has been showing a line on top of us for almost 24 hours but very little has fallen.  Only 0.11 In the last 72 hours.  

[NavarreDon]

We have 1.73" in Weaverville so far. Getting drizzle again in the last 5 minutes. It has been quite a year for rainfall so far.

[WNCwx]

Luckily, this was a minor event in Macon County. The January event was bigger. Less rain fell in a shorter period of time.

 

The rain gauges around the county that are available online show between 2 and 3 inches fell in most of the county a couple of southfacing slopes topped 4 inches in the past 48 hours. I had 1.76 inches in my gauge that is located 4 miles NE of Franklin, NC over the past 48 hours.

 

The online waterflow gauges show the water beginning to ebb. Here is the one that is below the majority of the drainage in the county:

 

 

No trees down or mudslides were reported for the local VFDs to respond to and only a few power outages.

 

I did hear something pretty funny on the scanner yesterday. Someone concerned about the safety of some Kayakers in the Nantahala River called 911 and a Sheriff Deputy was dispatched. You could hear him smiling over the radio as he reported they looked "just like little plastic ducks in the rapids" and there was nothing to be concerned about, they were having the time of their lives. 

[Brick Tamland]

Just cloudy with some drizzle here. I wonder if we're going to see any heavy rain and storms or if this is just going to be another dreary day like we have been having lately.

[BIG FROSTY]

0.64 in the bucket so far.

[MarvelMountain]

8.3 inches so far, and another heavy burst just moved through. The sun appeared for a minute or so, meaning the worst must be over. It was 53 this morning.

Here's a pic of the swing next to Otter Creek from yesterday, and one of Otter Creek as it approaches Bill's Creek Road. I detected rivulets of water running down the face of the earthen dam holding back Otter Pond. Never saw that before.

[Disc]

0.28" since midnight. Rain has been off and on since then. I expect us to get into the heavier/steadier rains later today and tomorrow. In addition to the rain, it's been quite windy this morning.

[mavenhater]

Just hit the 1 inch precip mark in Pinnacle. ( Stokes County)

[buckeyefan1]

2.28 from this system so far at CAE     

[MillerA]

3.25 so far from the system.

[Cold Rain]

Just cloudy with some drizzle here. I wonder if we're going to see any heavy rain and storms or if this is just going to be another dreary day like we have been having lately.

Probably not. Shortwave energy does not travel through eastern SC/NC. It only goes through upstate SC and western NC. At least it's raining now. Looks like the main band is slowly lifting N and NE. RAH says it will likely weaken and a new band, with the potential for T-storms should form and affect areas mostly west of HWY 1...as usual.

[calculus1]

Brad Panovich has released a video discussing today, tomorrow, and following.  Give it a look:

 

[WxJordan]

4.1 inches of rain in the bucket Hildebran, NC. More likely as showers and thunderstorms are now breaking out over the forecast area.

[magpiemaniac]

In GSO, we've had light rain on and off for a couple of days, but nothing really impressive.  It wasn't until this morning that it became heavier.  I think we're up to 0.5" now.  If this were frozen, I'd be pissed at the screw job.  

[Disc]

Interesting.

 

 

...NC/SRN VA THIS AFTN/EVE...
CONTINUED ESELY...LOW-LVL UPSLOPE FLOW...COUPLED SFC HEATING AND
MID-LVL COOLING/ASCENT WITH APPROACHING UPR IMPULSE...SHOULD RESULT
IN A BAND OF SCTD TO BROKEN STORMS ALONG NWD-MOVING CONFLUENCE AXIS
IN NC. SFC DEW POINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO TO MID 60S F FROM SW VA SEWD
INTO CSTL NC COULD YIELD SBCAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG.

DEEP WIND PROFILES LIKELY WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO THOSE NOW PRESENT
OVER REGION...WITH MODEST SPEEDS AND MEAN FLOW/DEEP SHEAR LARGELY
PARALLEL TO THE LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE ZONE. PROFILES
WILL...HOWEVER...EXHIBIT APPRECIABLE LOW-LVL VEERING. TAKEN
TOGETHER...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHORT BANDS OF MULTICELL
CLUSTERS...POSSIBLY WITH OCCASIONAL...EMBEDDED...WEAKLY ROTATING
STRUCTURES. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE A FEW INSTANCES OF SVR HAIL
AND POSSIBLY A DMGG WIND GUST/BRIEF TORNADO.

 

[Cold Rain]

Finally raining hard here. Should be able to pick up a quick half inch.

[Isopycnic]

0.65" in 5 minutes in Hillsborough.

 

0.91" since 10am.

[Disc]

CAPE in this area anywhere from 500-1000j/kg. ML and LL lapse rates improving as well.

[NCsandhills]

1,000 j/kg.  That's a decent amount, isn't it?

 

 

DISCUSSION...OCCLUDED SURFACE CYCLONE IS CENTERED OVER THE TN VALLEY

REGION...WITH A CONFLUENT BOUNDARY EXTENDING ESEWD FROM ERN TN INTO
SERN NC. SURFACE DEWPOINTS RESIDE IN THE 50S ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...MIDLEVEL DRYING IS ALLOWING
SKIES TO CLEAR FROM ERN KY INTO CNTRL TN...WHICH IS AIDING IN
WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S. BOUNDARY LAYER IS RAPIDLY
DESTABILIZING AS A RESULT...WHICH IS GIVING WAY TO DEEPENING CUMULUS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE SOMEWHAT DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...ADEQUATE BUOYANCY...AND SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR OCCURRING ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW...LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS TODAY.

[Jon]

1,000 j/kg.  That's a decent amount, isn't it?

 

for NC, that's enough. Our severe isn't so much cape driven as the central states are.

[NCsandhills]

for NC, that's enough. Our severe isn't so much cape driven as the central states are.

I figured 1,000 was enough.  I didn't know that about our severe, though.  What is ours driven by?

[downeastnc]

1,000 j/kg.  That's a decent amount, isn't it?

 

 

Its not that decent but given the setup with good shear and insane mid level lapse rates its more than enough to get at least low end severe.