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May 4-6 SE Soaker, Discussion & OBS....


NavarreDon

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Over 3.5 inches storm total and the Catawba is flooding...which is amazing to see it flooding with under 4 inches for a 24 hour period. I think the saturation prior to this event has made the flooding a lot more significant. The very concerning part is that our storm is stalling over Alabama which keeps a deep Southeast flow over the escarpment...could be some major problems for a lot of areas by tomorrow.

 

 

here is the levels going down the catawba. crazy how high the level is getting upstream. 

brwn7_hg.png

rhon7_hg.png

oxfn7_hg.png

lksn7_hg.png

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Big difference as you go north in Buncombe.....we have had 1.4" so far in Weaverville. Rained all day at the mall. The River Arts District is going to be a mess.

 

Flood Advisory
FLOOD ADVISORYNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC548 PM EDT SUN MAY 5 2013...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SCHAS ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER IN NC...PIGEONRIVER IN NC...  FRENCH BROAD RIVER IN NC AT ASHEVILLE AFFECTING BUNCOMBE COUNTY  PIGEON RIVER IN NC AT CANTON AFFECTING HAYWOOD COUNTYHEAVY RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA HAS SATURATED THE GROUND AND CAUSEDRIVER LEVELS TO RISE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE RIVERTO CREST JUST BELOW FLOOD STAGE.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR A RIVER FORECAST POINT MEANS THAT NUISANCEFLOODING IS EXCEPTED TO OCCUR ALONG THE RIVER WHEN THE RIVER LEVEL ISFORECAST TO BE JUST BELOW OR AT THE OFFICIAL FLOOD STAGE.CAUTION IS URGED WHEN WALKING NEAR RIVER BANKS...KEEP CHILDREN AWAYFROM DRAINAGE AREAS AND CULVERTS.&&NCC021-060947-/O.NEW.KGSP.FL.Y.0017.130505T2148Z-130506T0947Z//AVLN7.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/548 PM EDT SUN MAY 5 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC HAS ISSUEDA* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR  THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER IN NC AT ASHEVILLE.* UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.* AT 05 PM SUNDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.8 FEET.* BANKFULL STAGE IS 6.5 FEET.* FLOOD STAGE IS 9.5 FEET.* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL RISE TO NEAR 9.0 FEET BY TOMORROW  MORNING. AT 9.5 FEET...FLOOD STAGE...AREAS BETWEEN RIVERSIDE ROAD AND THERIVER SOUTH OF OLD BURNSVILLE HILL ROAD BEGIN TO FLOOD.&&
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Not 1 legitimate drop IMBY so far. What a loser of a system so far in this area. Can't see anything on radar that indicates any real rain will be in here before tomorrow at the earliest.

Must be a combination of the usual "dynamics weakening as the system moves east", "frontal zone to the SE interrupting moisture transport into the area", etc.

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This system has already dropped 2.5 inches of rain in eastern Burke County with more rain to come. Looks like a narrow zone of convergence is continuing to provide rain for the western Carolinas. I would not be shocked to see some 8-10 inch totals from this storm. This storm has been amazing and more is still yet to come tomorrow, Tuesday, and Wednesday. What a storm!

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Looks like we will get a brief window to shut off the rain but that batch in GA coming in is looking more and more impressive. Also if we keep getting heavy bouts of rain through Tuesday then we are going to be in big trouble.

 

Took a ride around Yancey Co. before it got dark and we're close from this thing getting bad. South Toe from Celo to Green Mountain is just about out. This is a big mountain river, it can do some damage when it floods.  We've had 2.71" since lunch time. School Super is considering pulling the trigger on closing schools tomorrow. Training right over us now, picked up .29 in the last  50 minutes. I know these totals don't sound too impressive to some, but in terrain like Yancey it be devastating quickly.

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Took a ride around Yancey Co. before it got dark and we're close from this thing getting bad. South Toe from Celo to Green Mountain is just about out. This is a big mountain river, it can do some damage when it floods.  We've had 2.71" since lunch time. School Super is considering pulling the trigger on closing schools tomorrow. Training right over us now, picked up .29 in the last  50 minutes. I know these totals don't sound too impressive to some, but in terrain like Yancey it be devastating quickly.

Oh I agree when you have run off form mountains 3000+ coming down into streams and rivers there are going to be some major flooding issues into the rivers. Like I had mentioned earlier we have had small streams now that you hav to swim across know. The river is just feet away fro crossing the road in some areas. This is going to get much worst than before it gets better.

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So far, 7.5 inches, and it's raining harder now than at anytime during this event. I can only imagine how bad this is going to be by morning in low lying areas. Luckily I don't have anyplace I need to be tomorrow, but the roads will be treacherous for school and work travel. A state of emergency would be in order right about now.

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So far, 7.5 inches, and it's raining harder now than at anytime during this event. I can only imagine how bad this is going to be by morning in low lying areas. Luckily I don't have anyplace I need to be tomorrow, but the roads will be treacherous for school and work travel. A state of emergency would be in order right about now.

Wow very impressive. Ya this could get out of hand pretty quick. The rain is just training over the sam spot for hour know. Not a good situation at all.

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seeing on facebook the french broad is over its banks. 

flcn7_hg.png

 

Last OBS is over flood stage...

 

 

 

Forecast:

blan7_hg.png

 

Rocky Broad could see major category soon.

 

bcvn7_hg.png

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So far, 7.5 inches, and it's raining harder now than at anytime during this event. I can only imagine how bad this is going to be by morning in low lying areas. Luckily I don't have anyplace I need to be tomorrow, but the roads will be treacherous for school and work travel. A state of emergency would be in order right about now.

You always seem to have amazing weather up at your place and apparently tonight is no different! Very impressive total! Stay safe!

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Not 1 legitimate drop IMBY so far. What a loser of a system so far in this area. Can't see anything on radar that indicates any real rain will be in here before tomorrow at the earliest.

Must be a combination of the usual "dynamics weakening as the system moves east", "frontal zone to the SE interrupting moisture transport into the area", etc.

I now blame Jordan lake for all our failures.

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Things getting much worse here as well.. rain is the heaviest of the day, old fort mtn on I40 W is shut down now due to rockslide

Dang rock slide up on Old Fort. Wow just so much rain and no were for it to soak into. The next few days are going to be crazy if this keeps up. although the GFS looked to give us a break Tuesday from the rain for several hours which would help a lot.

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Ya really. Hey were are you located at?

oh, not me. im talking about for the mtns. the ULL looks like it stalled, which means the areas that are seeing rain will continue to do so for several hours. I hope the dams can handle the volume of water coming at them. 

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