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May 4-6 SE Soaker, Discussion & OBS....


NavarreDon

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For May 4th, I had 0.40 inches in the gauge and have had 0.07 between midnight and 3am.

 

I was forecast to get 1 to 2 inches QPF from 4am yesterday to 4am today and the same in the next 24 hour period.

 

I've also been watching the local gauges, and they all look something like this...

 

 

USGS035000002013042820130505v1_zpsd2547d

 

The most recent minor flooding we had was back in January, when this particular gauge showed this: 

 

USGS035000002013012920130204v1_zps1a226c

 

 

I'll be watching the local CoCoRaHS reports after 7am to see what they say. 

 

If this was a snow event and I were a snow weenie, I'd be saying the forecast was a bust...but it's not and I'm not.

The forecasted event still has 36 to 48 hours to redeem itself after a slow start.  :)

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The NWS EDD map has a River layer among the hundreds of other layers they now have. http://www.daculaweather.com/4_nws_edd.php So far, about ~1.75" EDIT: Bird crap in the weather station gauge was giving me incorrect data. CoCoRaHS gauge had 3.26" in the last 24 hours and still raining. It looks like it will be ending in the next few hours, and after that, dry until the afternoon and rain again. Lather, rinse, repeat.

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It's a whole different world in the Mnts......So far only .52" for me while the escarpment counties have had up to 3". Flood warnings going up for those areas now.

 

Flood Warning
FLOOD WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC717 AM EDT SUN MAY 5 2013NCC021-089-149-161-175-051700-/O.NEW.KGSP.FA.W.0012.130505T1117Z-130505T1700Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/BUNCOMBE NC-HENDERSON NC-TRANSYLVANIA NC-POLK NC-RUTHERFORD NC-717 AM EDT SUN MAY 5 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A* FLOOD WARNING FOR...  HENDERSON COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...  SOUTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...  TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...  WEST CENTRAL RUTHERFORD COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...  WESTERN POLK COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...* UNTIL 100 PM EDT* AT 710 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN  BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.  DOPPLER RADAR  INDICATED OVER 2 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FELL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS  AND MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY.* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING TO OCCUR.  SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...BREVARD...  COLUMBUS...HENDERSONVILLE...AVERY CREEK...BAT CAVE...CHIMNEY  ROCK...DUPONT STATE FOREST...ETOWAH...FLAT ROCK...FLETCHER...GORGES  STATE PARK...LAKE ADGER...LAKE LURE...LAKE TOXAWAY...MOUNTAIN HOME  AND ROSMAN. IN TRANSYLVANIA COUNTY LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS SUCH AS LITTLERIVER AND DAVIDSON RIVER ARE EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGEFLOODING LOCAL ROADWAYS. IN HENDERSON COUNTY LOCAL STREAMS SUCH ASMUD CREEK...CLEAR CREEK AND BAT FORK CREEK WILL LIKELY GO ABOVEBANKFULL FLOODING LOCAL STREETS. IN RUTHERFORD COUNTY AREAS THATWILL BE AFFECTED ARE BAT CAVE AND LAKE LURE AREA.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. IF YOUARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTSLIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TOPROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWINGWATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY AUTOMOBILE.DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THEROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSSSAFELY.
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Heavy rain continuing to train over areas in western North Carolina, upstate South Carolina, and NE Georgia. This will be the general idea today as the system begins to slowly progress eastward. Looks like they may get in the golf at Quail Hollow before the rain arrives there this afternoon. No doubt things will get worse before they get better.

In Hickory, total rainfall .26 inch, Valdese, .50 inch, Asheville .81 inch so far.

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3.12 inches so far been a moderate to sometimes heavy rain all nite temp 45.

Impressive. Ya here in Haywood we really got rocked last night and this morning feels like a tropical storm coming in. Very heavy rain and high winds. All the creeks and streams are way up. River is up and I past a couple of big sized trees that were uprooted from the ground because the ground is so saturated and the winds have been so high also. We keep this up today and we will have major flooding issues by tonight.

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Heavy rain continuing to train over areas in western North Carolina, upstate South Carolina, and NE Georgia. This will be the general idea today as the system begins to slowly progress eastward. Looks like they may get in the golf at Quail Hollow before the rain arrives there this afternoon. No doubt things will get worse before they get better.

In Hickory, total rainfall .26 inch, Valdese, .50 inch, Asheville .81 inch so far.

 

Well, I'm not sure how I missed out, then.  I'm still sitting at 0.05 inch since midnight.  Waiting on the heavy stuff...

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 The last time KATL had 2.76"+ on any one calendar day was all the way back on 5/3/2010, when 2.81" fell!

0800 AM     HEAVY RAIN       HAPEVILLE               33.66N 84.41W

05/05/2013  M3.46 INCH       FULTON             GA   ASOS

            THIS IS THE 24 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 8 AM FOR HARTSFIELD

            KACKSON AIRPORT.

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We have now over 2 inches of rain here along the escarpment and there is an expanding area of heavier rain just to my south coming this way. I'm betting we'll see some Areal Flood Warnings for McDowell by noon or shortly after.

 

Watching this cutoff on the water vapor image is a thing of beauty...

 

20130505_1230_sm_US_wv.jpg

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Thought it was supposed to rain today. Not a cloud in the sky here. Gorgeous weather.

 

 

LOL. Those Upper Level Lows rarely seem to care what weathermen have said they will do...and seem to relish in destroying their forecasts of deluge. 

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Clouds --> drizzle --> showers --> downpours --> tropical flooding!  (Okay, maybe not the flooding...)

 

I've progressed to stage 3, now.  Steady showers since about 10 AM or so.  I'm up to 0.25 inch since midnight now.  Lots of precip blossoming on radar.  Time to bunker down for the afternoon...

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