My Summer/Hurricane 2013 Forecast

[RaleighWx]

For those interested.

 

http://www.examiner.com/article/summer-and-hurricane-forecast-2013-part-1

 

 

http://www.examiner.com/article/summer-and-hurricane-forecast-2013-part-2

 

Thanks.

[WxFreak11]

I enjoyed the presentation.. Very informative and well presented. Thanks for sharing.

[Ellinwood]

17/9/3

You're welcome, everyone else.

[andyhb]

Good stuff here, very nicely laid out as always.

[hurricaneman]

You're right Allen, the QBO could cause more upper shear in the MDR lessening hurricane activity in that area, as for landfalling Idea I can see a hodgepodge of 2004 and 2005 here as in most of the activity will form anywhere west of 50W where 2005 comes in and alot like 2004 where the anywhere from Destin to Cape Hatteras could be in the target range. So looking at it our ideas are not all that different

 

Thank you for the presentation as always, and it puts my concern for the SE states this hurricane season in the bears watching stage

[Supercane]

Very nice presentation. Do you have a link to the PDO dataset you showed? I'm only familiar with the JISAO series. Thanks.

[Eyewall2005]

Very nice presentation. Do you have a link to the PDO dataset you showed? I'm only familiar with the JISAO series. Thanks.

 

Weres your outlook?

[Eyewall2005]

Thanks Allen! Ready here in florida.

[Ground Scouring]

As usual, you offer a pithy yet well-reasoned (and -organized) outlook. I definitely agree with a more interesting season this year as the vertical instability in the MDR, while still somewhat below average, is at least keeping pace with the expected, seasonal trend line. It is definitely more unstable than it was at this time in 2011 and 2012. The Caribbean is also consistently maintaining average or slightly-above-average instability this year, a welcome contrast to that of the past two seasons. Your landfall forecast, with a Florida-centric tinge, also broadly reflects what I have seen from other sources, reputable and non-reputable alike. I think the weaker signal from the Indian Ocean will allow a more robust African ITCZ this year which, along with the +TNA, bodes well for development even with the +EPO signal. As far as the "occasional" strength of the WAR is concerned, the strong +AMO should tend to favor higher heights near the Southeast, as should the expected -NAO, thus opening SE FL to the threat of at least one major hurricane. With vertical instability being at least average this season, the door opens to a more active landfall regimen in the U.S. All in all, Floridians should probably be advised to pay more heed to this year than to 2010-2012.

[RaleighWx]

Thanks everyone for the kind words. Supercane this is the link to the PDO data I use:

 

ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v3b/pdo/pdo.dat

 

[Floydbuster]

Very nice presentation. It would seem to imply less Cape Verde Hurricanes and more bubbling closer to home.