Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

December 19th-20 Storm Thread III


Baroclinic Zone

Recommended Posts

my wife is pretty anxious when it comes to driving in the snow...and has a job that does not allow her to skip out work for it either. may only come in handy a couple times a year...but better safe than sorry.

also...pretty sure we got more snow than you last year...just saying whistle.gif

thats cool if it make her feel safer but its not to hilly down their and snow tires only help you go not stop and thats when you have accidents .

all wheel drive with no snows we have no trouble up here . you should get that for her she would love it

hahah you may have 3 inches here and their but you dont need snow tires for that :lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 2.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I can foretell this solution pretty easily I think. The low goes way out and curves back in based on where the PV is going. Our last and only hope is that. And I hate to hang on those crazy uncle solutions but I'll take what I can get and be happy with it. Congrats nzucker...the new sage.

It's gonna bury donweast, ME....it's pretty easy to see the type of "no snow for you" consensus developing this time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Still holding out hope for Sunday's storm. The kids are dying to go sledding and it seems a little less Christmassy without snow. Seeems like the end result of this storm is a continuation of last winter's trend - lot's of storms, lots of near misses or downgrading of threats and snow totals as storms approached. Should be some interesting reading on this forum over the next 24-36 hours.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm beginning to lose hope. We need a shift in the 12z runs and the NAM was a bad start.

I hear yah.

People may not want to hear this but from a purely scientific/modeling retrospective analysis there would probably be some fascinating post-mortem research into why the models performed, probably the worst for any specific event spanning the last 10 years of the technology, regarding this particular system.

Really, there's got to be some interesting reasons behind this, what really should be counted as "miss"guidance rather than guidance. From where I am sitting, 'no system at all' really could not be ruled out at this point. Every possibility is still on the table; though subjectively it may be really easy to throw your hands and walk away as a no show -

One thing I am noticing is that this was becoming less a southern stream interaction with SPV or SPV fragmentation, but an intermediate jet max now entering N/A near the Washington border with Canada, beginning on Tuesday. This became very evident and trackable during the 12z guidance initializaiton yesterday, and then proceding through the charts out to 96 hours. Those dynamics were amplifying in the OV--MA states, altimately closing off along or SE of New England. That synoptic evolution has been muted over the the last 12 hours worth of cycles across the board, showing now lesser intermediate stream injection than the model unilaterally targeted on the 12z run yesterday.

I suspect at least some of this would be evidenced in any aforementioned post-mortem study, and how well the models handled this stream insert. Why they are discontinuous with that feature is a mystery - is it really that invisible in the sounding? Was it data assimilation perhaps over emphasizing that stream's wind max, thus forcibly inserting too much dynamics down stream?? It is hard to say, but fascinating questions.

That all said, this is probably still not entirely hopeless from an objective view point. But in all fairness, that objectivity requires that the probability of this returning, however not 0, is on the S side of 50% no doubt. Thankfully for the snow enthusiasts, this isn't March 15th ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow....easy come, easy go lol... .I guess even the cape might not do more than advisory level at best..unbelievable...

Just curious...anyone who has spent a good number of years in the hfd/spfd area, what is the greatest snow depth that you have ever observed???

During the winter of 95/96 I observed just under two feet on the ground after the jan blizzard and in Feb 01 after the big snow of Feb 5 I observed just about two feet on the ground (snow depth). In the blizzard of 96 there was seven to nine inches of snow on the ground from previous storms and before the early feb storm there was four to seven inches of glacier snow on the ground ( i remember i had to use force to get the yard stick through it). For both of these storms I lived in Bristol Ct. It is unfortunate that I left Bristol two years before the Feb 06 storm which dropped about two feet in town.

Greatly appreciate all honest replies.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Two things: One, that OV s/w will probably trend slower with each run/hang back more for another run or two. Unless it digs more we're not going to be happy as it will just serve to block moisture from shooting north.

Second, this is probably the east outlier or at least I hope.

And I guess three, the GFS is a total miss too irregardless of the obligatory .1, there will be some precip down this way if it is right but nothing of consequence.

Someone should check the GW Bridge webcam to make sure Kevin doesn't have his climbing gloves on.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We have two tracks for storms this winter it seems. 1.) cutters 2.) offshore lows that develop too late and come back for ME and NB.

Now if you look at this - it is looking for and more like #2. Maybe we should have expected that all along.

Northern and Eastern Maine. The SW portion of the state has gotten almost nothing. Had 0.8" IMBY from retro #1 and nada from #2, and that's better off than most of the Maine posters south and west of me.

Most folks daring enough to offer winter forecasts had December as the best month for snow and cold in the Northeast, though the few who made March forecasts had that also colder and snowier than avg. Given what was said about La Nina winters (saw lots of "good early, bad middle, maybe good again late"), watching all these December opportunities pass by gets discouraging. Oh well, it's only weather.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...