mattb65 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Big hole in the precip nearly surrounding the entire state of Maine, where are the maine friends to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 Damn, so close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I think once all the data is sampled...we will see a nw adjustment from the 8 straight days of 150 miles se of the bm track. LOL. This event has to be one of the most sensitive potential cyclogenesis events I have seen in a long time dependent upon so many small scale weather features interacting with one another at the right time. That said, there is a distinct possibility the models don't get this right all the way up until the event. Will be interesting to see if they ever actually catch on to a definitive solution, but there is an outside shot (small, but a chance) they don't catch on until the very last second. i see moisture converging at 37 / 69 http://www.ssd.noaa....l/flash-wv.html I DO like that wv trend would be nice to get one giant conslidating low in that area being pulled back by a 5H trough going negative tilt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 To use a term from TT. This ultimate "cosmic dildoing" Ha. Lol. hadn't heard that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Definitely looks like there are some convective areas per WV just posted out where they "should be" per guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Big hole in the precip nearly surrounding the entire state of Maine, where are the maine friends to Good stuff in Maine at 54 though,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 Sharp gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Sharp gradient. WTNH out of New Haven still has 1"-3" up on its website for the eastern third of the state. Uhh, time to update that. http://www.wtnh.com/dpp/weather/coastal-storm-arrives-sunday-evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Pressure map looks better than the first one I posted a few pages back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 NAM looks off it's rocker after about 36h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Sharp gradient. yup u can't write this off just yet. this is now cast. THE ONLY reason i'm still beating this dead horse zuck....err ....anyway is that models are keying in on a MAIN PIECE of vorticity SE of NC that may not be the MAIN SHOW. and if it's not and we have this sharp gradient on the nam....then it's now cast time who's coming with me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 NAM looks off it's rocker after about 36h. NAM-HGH ... new model. Maine gets punished severely with this ... total outlier though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 if someone would like to placate a special needs patient (me) then could they tell me if there is any significane to this "moving part" rotating thru n. alabam/miss tennessee. the reason i ask is because i know that big low in the pac nw is firing short waves like weenies over the weak west ridge and i wonder if this is an example of that. i also didn' think there was supposed to be anything that close on the heels of the SW coming off the jersey coast now and it makes that look like it could dig more. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 NAM-HGH ... new model. Maine gets punished severely with this ... total outlier though. Well the Euro had like 0.5" for all of ENE and like 1" for E ME if I recall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 NAM-HGH ... new model. Maine gets punished severely with this ... total outlier though. Man--congrats, Bethel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 Man--congrats, Bethel! All of the ski areas in the interior of ME stand to do well with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Well the Euro had like 0.5" for all of ENE and like 1" for E ME if I recall? yes, but NAM just took those totals and doubled them. lol. I'm pretty confident shovelable snow falls imby but 12+ seems like a pipe dream. Perhaps 6? I could open my wallet for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 File this one under, not gonna verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 yes, but NAM just took those totals and doubled them. lol. I'm pretty confident shovelable snow falls imby but 12+ seems like a pipe dream. Perhaps 6? I could bend over for that. keep your dignity for Christ sake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 19, 2010 Author Share Posted December 19, 2010 I guess the one thing to take not of on the QPF maps is the clear trough signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 File this one under, not gonna verify. Dobbs Ferry FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Dobbs Ferry FTL Ha! Nary a flake was seen by Socks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 keep your dignity for Christ sake lol .. if that QPF map were to verify I'd lose all sorts of dignity. Dignity that I wasn't even aware I possessed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I think once all the data is sampled...we will see a nw adjustment from the 8 straight days of 150 miles se of the bm track. LOL. You're delusional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Does the 12Z have any merit for Maine? The one thing I will say is that it has been consistant showing snow for three runs now. The GFS is far different, which is troubling since the NAM and GFS have been piggypacking on similar solutions it seemed for awhile now. I need to see the 12Z GFS before getting excited... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 A few things. NAM obviously is a delight for this old weenie sitting in eastern MA but it may not be fast enough with push #1. I suspect we have light snow moving into the area around dinner time tonight and it will end by morning. By then, we should have model consensus on where the trof s going to go (inverted). Also, FOUS (NAM) shows big snows for PWM but borderline bl temps for BGR on NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Does the 12Z have any merit for Maine? The one thing I will say is that it has been consistant showing snow for three runs now. The GFS is far different, which is troubling since the NAM and GFS have been piggypacking on similar solutions it seemed for awhile now. I need to see the 12Z GFS before getting excited... 0z Euro showed something like 0.5" QPF for us if what I read last night is correct. I'd opt for that right now and see what it sells us at 12z. This NAM run is not going to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 A few things. NAM obviously is a delight for this old weenie sitting in eastern MA but it may not be fast enough with push #1. I suspect we have light snow moving into the area around dinner time tonight and it will end by morning. By then, we should have model consensus on where the trof s going to go (inverted). Also, FOUS (NAM) shows big snows for PWM but borderline bl temps for BGR on NE. Fine with me, I am a little north of Portland, ME. I think I would be happy with a solid 3-6 at this point, since I know it won't go anywhere by Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 This thread is way too long...if someone wants to start a new one for the "threat" tonight and early tomorrow, then feel free, otherwise move to the thread that is already specific for the inverted trough/norlun signature for middle of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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