dendrite Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 CRAS model FTW http://cimss.ssec.wi...00/model_l.html Posting a CRAP link should be grounds for an automatic banning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 24hr precip valid 00z/21 00z NAM 06z NAM Horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 BOS lucky to see a flake on the 6z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 BOS lucky to see a flake on the 6z NAM. Ugh **** **** **** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 24hr precip valid 00z/21 Horrible Pretty much a 75%-100% QPF Reduction across the board, SE to NW... disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Never doubt the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Posting a CRAP link should be grounds for an automatic banning. I didn't even know this model existed until today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Current radar and WV is putrid, have to see where the pivot takes place and the inverted trough sets up, FYI this is NOT a retro situation. Could be interesting for a lot of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 BOS lucky to see a flake on the 6z NAM. From the initial passing of the system, yes. But the trough is kind to ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Current NE Americanwx grief stage index- 4-5 1 Denial (this isn't happening to me!) 2 Anger (why is this happening to me?) 3 Bargaining (I promise I'll be a better person if...) 4 Depression (I don't care anymore) 5 Acceptance (I'm ready for whatever comes) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Nice to see mdels dropping the Mon night-Wed snows on all of us now..Hopefully it can get all the way back to NY state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 From the initial passing of the system, yes. But the trough is kind to ENE. Yes, and even kinder to Buoy 44018 30 nm E. of Nantucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Like Will was saying of one of last night model runs, advisory or even lower warning critera is possible this coming week. 03z SREFs overall look very good for at least a few inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Current radar and WV is putrid, have to see where the pivot takes place and the inverted trough sets up, FYI this is NOT a retro situation. Could be interesting for a lot of people. It's not going to be interesting for anyone. Like I said last night, cute trend, but it would level off and tic back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Nice to see mdels dropping the Mon night-Wed snows on all of us now..Hopefully it can get all the way back to NY state Thats awfully nice of you, nothing for you and I but our friends to the east may do ok, but we know how the euro did with retro snows last week. I wish them well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Nice to see mdels dropping the Mon night-Wed snows FROM all of us now..Hopefully it can snow this winter yeah if we cross our fingers the inv trough will fall apart...and bos breaks the record for snowless days and then we could put a note that the nao was- throughout the streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Maybe Wachusett can loan BOS a few snow guns before the week is done to save them Rays year of futility drags on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 So much negativity and fatalism. Snow is in the forecast ... and not 8-10 days out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Maybe Wachusett can loan BOS a few snow guns before the week is done to save them Rays year of futility drags on I'd be shocked if we don't salvage a mod event from this next threat....that would mesh really well with what I had outlined for this mnth; below avg-avg snow with subnormal temp departures and much angst due to highly anomalous FAILS. I don't expect a virtual December shutout, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I'd be shocked if we don't salvage a mod event from this next threat....that would mesh really well with what I had outlined for this mnth; below avg-avg snow with subnormal temp departures and much angst due to highly anomalous FAILS. I don't expect a virtual December shutout, however. but ray don't you think we earned the record. with all the potential last year and then this year with the "good set up". the inv trough goes out to sea only takes model error 50 miles east 3 days out. then xmas threat is supressed and bingo record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 but ray don't you think we earned the record. with all the potential last year and then this year with the "good set up". the inv trough goes out to sea only takes model error 50 miles east 3 days out. then xmas threat is supressed and bingo record. You have lost it pickles. You need some sleep, I know how you feel, been there done that, but now its just crazy talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 but ray don't you think we earned the record. with all the potential last year and then this year with the "good set up". the inv trough goes out to sea only takes model error 50 miles east 3 days out. then xmas threat is supressed and bingo record. I'm just telling you what I feel will happen....I think I'll tally about 4-8" of snow on the month when all is said and done; it's difficult for me to fathom a shut out given the regime that we have been in. Wow...have a gander at the 06z GFS, that pg is just about '78 esc, but it's progressive and further se than I would like.....not that any of that matters at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I'd be shocked if we don't salvage a mod event from this next threat....that would mesh really well with what I had outlined for this mnth; below avg-avg snow with subnormal temp departures and much angst due to highly anomalous FAILS. I don't expect a virtual December shutout, however. Only takes one event to bring most of us to average and we have 10 days to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Only takes one event to bring most of us to average and we have 10 days to do it. Exactly....probably won't be huge, but I think the month salvages one appreciable event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 NWS ALB. keeping the Xmas threat on the table for now. I'll embrace the GFS for the time being. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS...A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH SETS UP EAST OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. A SIGNIFICANT STORM ACCORDING TO THE MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE COULD IMPACT THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...AND POTENTIALLY THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE TAKING THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTHWARD UP THE COAST TOWARD NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE ECMWF TAKES IT SOUTH OF THE ALY FCST AREA ON CHRISTMAS. THE 00Z GEFS INDICATED A 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF QPF BTWN 18Z 25 DEC TO 06Z 26 DEC FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST. THE SRN HLF OF THE FCST AREA MAY GET SOME LIGHT TO POTENTIALLY MODERATE SNOWFALL FROM THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE SYSTEM. OVERALL...HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN CHRISTMAS PM...AND BETTER CHANCE POPS IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ENSEMBLE PLUME FOR KALB INDICATES QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY/SPREAD IN TERMS OF LITTLE TO NO SNOWFALL VS. QUITE A BIT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WE WILL WATCH THE TRENDS WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I'd be shocked if we don't salvage a mod event from this next threat....that would mesh really well with what I had outlined for this mnth; below avg-avg snow with subnormal temp departures and much angst due to highly anomalous FAILS. I don't expect a virtual December shutout, however. You've got borderling warning snows coming Wednesday/Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 You have lost it pickles. You need some sleep, I know how you feel, been there done that, but now its just crazy talk. lol then fine i will be optomistic here we go look at the precip shiled developing of S. NJ coast here http://www.intellica...62&animate=true and here http://www.intellica...14&animate=true the next 6 hours are when things are supposed to try and get going. the nam could have had a burp run poisened by convective feed back at 6z ....lets see what 12z shows in 45 minutes. john (typthoon) said that we need to watch this area yesterday in his post......and ill be damned if i'm gonna stay up to 3 an and let one bad nam run take the wind out my sails. if 12z nam comes back more amped with this energy approaching / hitting n. j coast then i will have hope .....game freakin on. surface maps show there is a lp about 100 miles e of hatteras at least here does http://www.ssd.noaa....l/flash-wv.html just ignore the area near 28/75 hopefully that craps out...well it actually looks abit strung out anyway. i wanna watch some energy transfer from SE of hatteras to N of hatteras off delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Thats awfully nice of you, nothing for you and I but our friends to the east may do ok, but we know how the euro did with retro snows last week. I wish them well. LOl..all modelling gives us snow..well maybe not so much your area..but everyone else it drops accum. snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Wow, I slept in. Thought for sure the sound of the plow would have woken me up. Wait a minute, there's not a cloud in the sky, WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 LOl..all modelling gives us snow..well maybe not so much your area..but everyone else it drops accum. snow Best of luck with the euro retro, how did that work out last wed/thur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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