dryslot Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Just stop it. Its a blizzard at H5...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Its a blizzard at H5...... That kid means well, but I'm convinced he has special needs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 For the GEFS guy... http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/00zp72f072.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 That kid means well, but I'm convinced he has special needs There are a few others on here that probably fit that bill and not just in the Northeast....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 There are a few others on here that probably fit that bill and not just in the Northeast....... Xmass blizz!!! :drunk: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Xmass blizz!!! :drunk: Looks like we may get santa instead of the grinch..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Looks like we may get santa instead of the grinch..... Whoomp there it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Whoomp there it is Nice Miller B'ish, We may actually have a chance........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 984mb passing over the BM. PV drops in over SW QB. Too bad it's d8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 This run was particularly kind to eastern New England...first the inverted trough snows on steroids for mid-week and then the Merry Christmas storm (really the 26th) that turns into an ENE special . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Guys so what is the summary no bs ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Guys so what is the summary no bs ? GFS ensembles are bullish on tomorrow night (but not the OP run)...no other models agreed with the NAM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 GFS ensembles are bullish on tomorrow night (but not the OP run)...no other models agreed with the NAM though. will since i am a little slow what is different from the gfs ens and nam that makes these models both bullish but not 'agreeing" . different mechanism....for getting qpf in here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 will since i am a little slow what is different from the gfs ens and nam that makes these models both bullish but not 'agreeing" . different mechanism....for getting qpf in here? NAM might keying in on a different set of lifting mechanisms than most models...with its very high resolution. It might be the case of two extremes, and this is just speculation...but the NAM has such a high resolution that it might be keying on something smaller than the main batch of convection to bring this further NW...the GFS ensembles are low enough resolution that they generally might be missing the critical convection that has been mucking up this setup...so they all mostly agree with each other on a further NW track. I'd be skeptical at believing them though. Who knows though, even other guidance came NW a bit, but just not nearly as much. I won't be surprised if SE areas do see some accumulating snow from the initial low, but likely in the 1-2" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 NAM might keying in on a different set of lifting mechanisms than most models...with its very high resolution. It might be the case of two extremes, and this is just speculation...but the NAM has such a high resolution that it might be keying on something smaller than the main batch of convection to bring this further NW...the GFS ensembles are low enough resolution that they generally might be missing the critical convection that has been mucking up this setup...so they all mostly agree with each other on a further NW track. I'd be skeptical at believing them though. Who knows though, even other guidance came NW a bit, but just not nearly as much. I won't be surprised if SE areas do see some accumulating snow from the initial low, but likely in the 1-2" range. My guess is the nam starts backing off (maybe even completely) on the upcoming 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 toss the f'n euro . lol sorry where can i find gfs ens members Yes we should toss the best model because it doesn't show what we like. GEFS always has a wide distribution of QPF that isn't reflective of what a CCB actually delivers in terms of precipitation; it's a tool to be used more for long-range forecasting and trends than for a synoptic analysis of a storm's cold sector. not sure if this even makes sense...but i'm DISGUSTED by something....this; low pressure looks like it is really going to town east of the NW bahamas tonite....pressures falling rapidly at bouy 41047 ....prob just enough to screw us on ccb and inv trough down the line ....good nite . looks like just as flow along the coast is gonna get going sw-ne the biggest height falls off FLorida robs energy from the MA coast and shunts it eastward....perhaps i'm seeing things and perhaps robs moisture isn't the best terminology....perhaps that littLE POS East of florida is the ghost of 2010 screw jobs riding away with our 9'th inning comeback.. Why are you so worried about this storm? The only thing interesting is the inverted trough potential, and we know how difficult those are to predict. The main show is clearly going to miss OTS, regardless of what the NAM showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 NAM might keying in on a different set of lifting mechanisms than most models...with its very high resolution. This. The SPC-WRF has SE-SNE rakeage at 35 hrs and that is a very good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Yes we should toss the best model because it doesn't show what we like. GEFS always has a wide distribution of QPF that isn't reflective of what a CCB actually delivers in terms of precipitation; it's a tool to be used more for long-range forecasting and trends than for a synoptic analysis of a storm's cold sector. Why are you so worried about this storm? The only thing interesting is the inverted trough potential, and we know how difficult those are to predict. The main show is clearly going to miss OTS, regardless of what the NAM showed. 1. was a joke .....your sarcasm meter is off 2. you speak like you KNOW what the outcome is.....that is a joke as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 This. The SPC-WRF has SE-SNE rakeage at 35 hrs and that is a very good sign nope it's out to sea....the signs are clear....didn't you hear.....nzucker has spoken. sorry but actually is this a reliable model at this time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Well if the Euro still has very little through 48.. I'd take a compromise between that and the 00z NAM.. maybe 2-4 Cape..1-2 east of there.. not counting anything after 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 You all might as well go have a snack or something and come back in 45 minutes. If the NAM is full of it ...it should back off at 6Z. I'm amusing myself listening to BBC radio 5 coverage of how 4 to 10 inches of snow has crippled an entire nation. 4 inches at Heathrow Airport as closed the airport through Sunday apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 so the box disco says the mid level low will be too far SE to have good frontogenesis in SNE? what is the consensus track on this one....is there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 all hopes riding on 6z nam? if the nam curls a 980 in toward the bench mark i'm chugging this bottle of wine and waking up around 1pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 nam better amplify on hr 12 or i'm throwing something thru window and taking 4 sleeping piills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 CRAS model FTW http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/00/model_l.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 So did all other modles miss us? p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 So did all other modles miss us? p nam's 12 hr panel is less impressive.....also prob some convective feed back E of fl ......toss it. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 NAM outside of 24 Hours FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The NAM is awful through 21hr. Sometimes I wonder how operational forecasters can even use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 NAM outside of 24 Hours FTL yup radar trends confirm the precip shield isn't gonna party rignt now and expand Nw....now just wonderin if models are keying in on righ area of LP with all those little convective blobs....but n. stream came in flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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