Logan11 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Details shouldn't matter this far out but.... If they consistently show it hooking ENE and missing us from about 43N + ...I'll tend to believe it after what we went through with most storms last year. So I hope some runs show it getting further north to make me feel better. 204 is the 1st panel...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I think the Canadian came into more in line with the NAM regarding where the heaviest precip is located. Although it is offshore it is much further nw then the 12z Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 GEFS is further west than even the past two runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Canadian sucks to my untrained eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Yes the difference is in the H5 pattern. The Canadian closes off the H5 trough as well as positions it further southwest as well like the NAM and GFS showed. Clear trend is our friend in the H5 setup. I need some sleep though. Tomorrow could potentially be a big day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 204 is the 1st panel...... Yeah...204hr is the first truncated panel. Maybe I'm missing what you guys are talking about here. Either way...yeah that's still somewhat out in fairy tale land and a lot can go wrong. There seems to be a good chance for a storm somewhere though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I think the Canadian came into more in line with the NAM regarding where the heaviest precip is located. Although it is offshore it is much further nw then the 12z Canadian. but does not give much of anything that I could tell.. but b&w is hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 but does not give much of anything that I could tell.. but b&w is hard to tell. Regardless of looking at QPF at hour 36 this model is much closer to the benchmark then the previous model run had it, this is good news and the H5 pattern is getting better. Models are still trending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Yeah...204hr is the first truncated panel. Maybe I'm missing what you guys are talking about here. Either way...yeah that's still somewhat out in fairy tale land and a lot can go wrong. There seems to be a good chance for a storm somewhere though. Yeah, Probably Dc and Ric........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Regardless of looking at QPF at hour 36 this model is much closer to the benchmark then the previous model run had it, this is good news and the H5 pattern is getting better. Models are still trending. got it..thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 but does not give much of anything that I could tell.. but b&w is hard to tell. Ggem is a whiff for everyone. Just a windbag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Although the lack of heavy QPF over the area, the 00z CMC has taken a huge leap towards the NAM and GFS H5 patterns. Remarkable how much of a change has occurred within 24 hours. H5 closes off furhter southwest then previous 12z run and also the surface low is further southwest as well. THis will likely show a better QPF resolution for the 12z run tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Although the lack of heavy QPF over the area, the 00z CMC has taken a huge leap towards the NAM and GFS H5 patterns. Remarkable how much of a change has occurred within 24 hours. H5 closes off furhter southwest then previous 12z run and also the surface low is further southwest as well. THis will likely show a better QPF resolution for the 12z run tomorrow. Trend is our friend......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Ggem is a whiff for everyone. Just a windbag. I am looking at the trending the model is doing and it is a clear sign that it wants a track similar to the 00z NAM. While the NAM may be bullish with the QPF amounts, it is not however on the H5 setup, because the GFS and CMC have trended towards it with a faster close up of the H5 trough and a more southwestward adjustment then previous 12z run. QPF is also a lot closer to the coastline while the 12z CMC yesterday had a total whiff out to sea. I think the signs are clear, the NAM could have this one right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Trend is our friend......... No Joke this time around. I need some sleep. Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 So realistically Cape Cod has a decent shot a plowable snowstorm now. The rest of E. Mass and maybe RI should be thrilled to get a few inches and guarantee a white christmas that way. Although the lack of heavy QPF over the area, the 00z CMC has taken a huge leap towards the NAM and GFS H5 patterns. Remarkable how much of a change has occurred within 24 hours. H5 closes off furhter southwest then previous 12z run and also the surface low is further southwest as well. THis will likely show a better QPF resolution for the 12z run tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Although the lack of heavy QPF over the area, the 00z CMC has taken a huge leap towards the NAM and GFS H5 patterns. Remarkable how much of a change has occurred within 24 hours. H5 closes off furhter southwest then previous 12z run and also the surface low is further southwest as well. THis will likely show a better QPF resolution for the 12z run tomorrow. The GGEM tickles the Cape with at most 2mm I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 I am looking at the trending the model is doing and it is a clear sign that it wants a track similar to the 00z NAM. While the NAM may be bullish with the QPF amounts, it is not however on the H5 setup, because the GFS and CMC have trended towards it with a faster close up of the H5 trough and a more southwestward adjustment then previous 12z run. QPF is also a lot closer to the coastline while the 12z CMC yesterday had a total whiff out to sea. I think the signs are clear, the NAM could have this one right. well hope you are right, would love to get 2-3" of snow as we head towards x-mas week.. kids would be stoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 If 00z EURO does not change like the rest of the guidance then I don't know what to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 The GGEM tickles the Cape with at most 2mm I think. It seems that the NAM likely took us on one of its fantasies...which certainly wouldn't be too surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Dendrite I don't care about the QPF at this point, I am talking about the concrete trend at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Will, it would appear the NAM is too bullish on QPF, but I can't say that I don't see an appreciable trend at H5 with the latest GFS and CMC towards a sooner phase, a faster H5 closed low and a further south H5 low as this storm progresses. The models are hanging the low back as it gets captured by the H5 low and tries to occlude southeast of Nova Scotia. 00z EURO is the most progressive with, taking the storm out to sea quickly. 00z trends towards a better H5 setup and the surface low and QPF trend NW, but not close enough until 12z run to get everyone excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveSolutions Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Times on these 3 models differ but, possible OES band setting up sometime tomorrow afternoon/early evening? Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Wonder what happened to Scott... Did the RUC turn bad and cause him to give up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Now good night everyone. Need some sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 Wonder what happened to Scott... Did the RUC turn bad and cause him to give up? Xmas Party.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 qpf coverage on ensemble mean of the GFS is WAY more robust than the OP model. Actually brings 0.75 line (5 day total) almost up to Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 qpf coverage on ensemble mean of the GFS is WAY more robust than the OP model. Actually brings 0.75 line (5 day total) almost up to Boston. as we thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 qpf coverage on ensemble mean of the GFS is WAY more robust than the OP model. Actually brings 0.75 line (5 day total) almost up to Boston. stop it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 19, 2010 Share Posted December 19, 2010 qpf coverage on ensemble mean of the GFS is WAY more robust than the OP model. Actually brings 0.75 line (5 day total) almost up to Boston. i'm curious to see the individual members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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