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December 19th-20 Storm Thread III

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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CCPSUSuperstorm2010

CCPSUSuperstorm2010

Posted
Posted

I wouldn't say it "means" it will trend nw, just be on the lookout for it.

Man, if you closed my eyes and showed me where the vortmax is, I'd be almost certain the low would be way west of where it's modeled. It's just too bad the baroclinic zone is so far se. However, like Tip mentioned....the forcing from the vortmax may help lower pressure and expand the precip shield south of LI. I can envision tomorrow as a day where lots of peeps are glued to satellite and radar, hoping for a massive nw bulge.

THanks Scott. Yeah I know it doesn't mean it will trend west. I am just watching it. That Vort max is certaintly moving quickly southeastward. I hope it changes the modeled dynamics enough by 00z run that the models actually begin to show some changes for the better, but right now it just does not look like it will happen. Just too late.

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

If it snowed that much, the effect would be to cheapen the value of it. Of course I would love all the snow, but there is something for watching the nuances and intricacies of a Noreaster coming together for us. Most of the things that bomb mammoth are frontal systems swinging in from the Pacific that just fall as +SN at that elevation. After awhile you would probably shrug your shoulders at a foot of snow.

mammoth 2006

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Hambone

Hambone

Posted
Posted

Anyone wanna take a trip to mammoth lakes, CA?

Late Afternoon: Snow. Steady temperature around 20. Wind chill values as low as -3. Windy, with a west southwest wind around 49 mph, with gusts as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 26 to 32 inches possible.

Tonight: Snow. Temperature rising to around 25 by 1am. Wind chill values as low as -2. Windy, with a southwest wind between 40 and 44 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 27 to 33 inches possible.

Sunday: Snow. Temperature falling to around 21 by 11am. Wind chill values as low as -2. Windy, with a southwest wind 40 to 45 mph increasing to between 50 and 55 mph. Winds could gust as high as 75 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 35 to 41 inches possible.

Sunday Night: Snow. Low around 13. Wind chill values as low as -7. Windy, with a west southwest wind 40 to 43 mph decreasing to between 26 and 29 mph. Winds could gust as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible.

Monday: Snow. High near 19. Windy, with a southwest wind between 26 and 31 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 15 to 21 inches possible.

Monday Night: Snow. Low around 14. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches possible.

Tuesday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 22. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

Taking the average forecast is 159" of snow!!!

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

boy this thread is great tonite :weight_lift:

weenies everywhere.

pete perhaps lord blankfein could help us out...if he's not too busy making toxic securitys.

i'm just ready to get slapped in the face for having hope at 0z .

quick math says mammoth lakes looking at 140-180 inches over that period. LOL

Here I am waaaayyyy west and I'm watching for the 1 in 1,000,000 chance I get a little action. That's how badly I have this disease.

You may have to abandon God's Country and head to that congested metropolis to the east for deep snow. :)

I would never choose city life over the rural one. Even if there was snow there what good is it laying on flatland.lol

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

My chances are less than half of yours, but I still find it fascinating to watch it play out. Still a symbolic victory of sorts if the models bust and decent snow gets well west into NE.

Here I am waaaayyyy west and I'm watching for the 1 in 1,000,000 chance I get a little action. That's how badly I have this disease.

I would never choose city life over the rural one. Even if there was snow there what good is it laying on flatland.lol

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

If it snowed that much, the effect would be to cheapen the value of it. Of course I would love all the snow, but there is something for watching the nuances and intricacies of a Noreaster coming together for us. Most of the things that bomb mammoth are frontal systems swinging in from the Pacific that just fall as +SN at that elevation. After awhile you would probably shrug your shoulders at a foot of snow.

That's where you and I differ. I would love every flake. I've spent a lot of time in the truly bottomless snow and it never gets old and there is never enough. 30' of snow is even better after a 6" snowfall.

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ptspvd

ptspvd

Posted
Posted

That's where you and I differ. I would love every flake. I've spent a lot of time in the truly bottomless snow and it never gets old and there is never enough. 30' of snow is even better after a 6" snowfall.

That is true but how good would a 6" snowfall feel after 30'? It would feel like a trace. I think thats what he means.

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

My chances are less than half of yours, but I still find it fascinating to watch it play out. Still a symbolic victory of sorts if the models bust and decent snow gets well west into NE.

I wish I had Will's memory for snowstorms. I seem to remember other instances where the models depicted a massive hit only to back way off but in the last hours the big hit idea came roaring back to fruition. Probably have to go back a few years and the models were probably not nearly as sophisticated as they are now. Holding out hope for a miracle is free and no one gets hurt.lol Hey, do you remember Ray Falconer or more recently Mike Landin. Both broadcast on WAMC for years. I miss their take on things. Ray was an old school Met and I had the good fortune to listen to him at the end of his career. He always said N'oreasters were fickle creatures and one could never be comfortable predicting their behavior. I also remeber him saying that there were times when we'd get locked into a storm cycle that would provide threats every 5-7 days for protracted periods. Hoping we're slipping into that kind of a rythm.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

I'm very confident now that we will see a nasty comma head develop just around/off the Delmarva/jersey up to just under LI, BI and the Cape about mid afternoon Sunday. The big question will be, is this going to be the worst tease in ages, or will it find a way to rotate up over us?

The RUC to me is really siding with the NAM and is about to hit us just beyond this time frame. Hit as in the 1-2/2-4 type deal over SE areas. It continues to strengthen the OV s/w

I'll be checking in and out at the party, the 0z nam should be very interesting :)

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cpickett79

cpickett79

Posted
Posted

what's that feature on the SE side of the long range hatteras radar

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=mhx&product=N0Z&loop=yes

looks like it's riding the NW wall of Gulf stream

http://www.sstcharts.com/nc_10_12_16_04_45_AM_H.shtml

don't know if there is a low out there....or wether ncep is not fully updated yet. prolly not a low?

http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfctest/new/viewsector.php?sector=17#

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

That is true but how good would a 6" snowfall feel after 30'? It would feel like a trace. I think thats what he means.

I know precisely what he means. What I'm saying is, for me, a 3" snowfall is still exciting for me even when I've already witnessed many feet of snow. I love snow in any amount and it never gets old. The magic never diminishes.

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MaineJayhawk

MaineJayhawk

Posted
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I know precisely what he means. What I'm saying is, for me, a 3" snowfall is still exciting for me even when I've already witnessed many feet of snow. I love snow in any amount and it never gets old. The magic never diminishes.

More is better, whether 3' or 3" at a time. It is never enough ... though I haven't lived someplace that'll get 160" over the next week. lol

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cpickett79

cpickett79

Posted
Posted

So people are getting worked up over a possible 1-2" on the Cape?

I understand... I hope they get it...

LOL :gun_bandana:

c'mon dave get pumped :weight_lift:

at 11 pm we are going to co-odrinate a deep meditation coupled with collective visualizations of a 0z euro showing a curled up 978mb low tucked just SE of BM. and then chart the results.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Ok I'm out have fun guys. No way to say which way it's going but I think SE NE sees the first accumulating snow now lets just hope it's cold enough. Still wiggle room west too. Ruc wants to make this oh so close but my gut says 19-24 there is as much lateral as vertical movement.

Don't drink to much.....lol

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

Wow, that's really horrible 'music' and I use the term loosely.

More is better, whether 3' or 3" at a time. It is never enough ... though I haven't lived someplace that'll get 160" over the next week. lol

If anything it gets a little freaky. You can't really do much but hunker down, shovel the roof after hearing it creak and groan under the weight. Eventually though, you emerge into a completely surrealistic landscape and ski, ski, ski your azz off.

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