Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Flow is really fast, downstream radars show precip flying off the coast. I think cc gets a few flurries, maybe a period of light snow and that is it, could there be an inverted trough somewhere. sure very local amounts of an inch or less. The Nam was fun, but I think the overwhelming evidence otherwise points to a miss in general terms. I hate to say it, I was stoked at the srefs eta and nam, meh. That precip down the coast has zero to do with the precip forecast by the NAM sunday night. That develops in place NW of the low center. RUC at 22z still shows it going gangbusters much like the map below but wll it make it N? hopefully we can get the two vorts over the lakes and va to interact more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 LOL Ryan hits the Xmas storm much harder than tomorrow nite,. and mentions maybe a few flurries in CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 have you taken a look at the individual sref members on the latest run? I havent had time plus i only have my cell at the moment. Im wondering if the sref mean is being domimated by a couple of members that are way left or if most of the members are actually trying to show an appreciable shift to the left. A lot of the SREF members are NW of the OP runs we've been seeing though there are definitely 2 or 3 members that are basically a full fledged blizzard for eastern SNE...but I'd say a good half dozen of them or so probably bring an inch or more of snow to SE MA...so its not totally dominated by the W members, though bringing an inch of snow back to BAF is a result of that. I think its not an east forecast in terms of whether its 0 snow or 1-2 inches of snow for SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Well if we can approach this as a good learning opportunity and not get bent out of shape if it doesn't snow it would be great. I'm going to try but can't promise.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Well Ch5 just went with a dusting from about cohasset down to New bedford with 1-2" about 20 miles either side of the CC. Outer cape rain mix. HDH goes with dusting into BOS and shifts those same totals an additional 20 or so miles east and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 messenger funny that in the end this thing could be more latitude challenged with a cutoff from LI to nantucket. what could pull this far north enough...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 If I were on Cape Cod, I would be getting pretty excited now. JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 messenger funny that in the end this thing could be more latitude challenged with a cutoff from LI to nantucket. what could pull this far north enough...? The hand of God. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 LOL Ryan hits the Xmas storm much harder than tomorrow nite,. and mentions maybe a few flurries in CT And as much as I hate it he's usualy right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 God can only help us now. Maybe if everyone prays for it, it will come. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 The hand of God. lol, i was thinking "the finger of God" you know, from my favorite weather weenie movie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 LOL Ryan hits the Xmas storm much harder than tomorrow nite,. and mentions maybe a few flurries in CT I could see a period of -SN (as I mentioned) tomorrow night... but I really can't call for anything else at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 And as much as I hate it he's usualy right. Could be about tomorrow,,but to put more emphasis on a Christma storm that all modelling takes well out to sea is a little crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 God can only help us now. Maybe if everyone prays for it, it will come. lol. I just traveled into the future and got the 2010-2040 weather almanac...it shows that 6-12 inches of snow fell on Sunday and Monday 12/19 and 12/20 2010 across all of N NJ, SE NY, CT, RI, and E MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Thing is I think my perception of timing is off on this one....I keep thinking early Sun but this is a LATE sunday deal. What Will is saying is interesting and it was kind of true with the GFS ENS too....enough members are NW that we have to take a peak it isn't just the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 have you taken a look at the individual sref members on the latest run? I havent had time plus i only have my cell at the moment. Im wondering if the sref mean is being domimated by a couple of members that are way left or if most of the members are actually trying to show an appreciable shift to the left. It's a good thing to check, but I suspect if there is some short term model correction underway the entire cluster is probably in trend anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I just traveled into the future and got the 2010-2040 weather almanac...it shows that 6-12 inches of snow fell on Sunday and Monday 12/19 and 12/20 2010 across all of N NJ, SE NY, CT, RI, and E MA. THat would be pretty amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 It definitely is interesting that the ensembles members (seemingly both SREF and GEFS) are near or nw of the op. Tough to say what 00z does, but that's somewhat of a red flag seeing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Could be about tomorrow,,but to put more emphasis on a Christma storm that all modelling takes well out to sea is a little crazy LOL I said, "and some models show snow for Christmas... but it's 7 days out so way too early to say what will happen with that' also said, "Looks like our best hope for a white Christmas won't be this week but will be anything we see on Christmas Day" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 It definitely is interesting that the ensembles members (seemingly both SREF and GEFS) are near or nw of the op. Tough to say what 00z does, but that's somewhat of a red flag seeing that. Yup agreed. To be honest that's the only reason why I mentioned flurries or -SN thinking that a tug back NW is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 It definitely is interesting that the ensembles members (seemingly both SREF and GEFS) are near or nw of the op. Tough to say what 00z does, but that's somewhat of a red flag seeing that. I agree Scott, also the ensemble mean of the GFS is also showing a further west QPF maximum which means it will probably trend west some. Let's see if the 00z models begin to notice that the vorticity over MO and TN will spark a change in the phase timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Scooter... mind pulling the skin back and giving a tug possibly? What in the sam hell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Anyone wanna take a trip to mammoth lakes, CA? Late Afternoon: Snow. Steady temperature around 20. Wind chill values as low as -3. Windy, with a west southwest wind around 49 mph, with gusts as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 26 to 32 inches possible. Tonight: Snow. Temperature rising to around 25 by 1am. Wind chill values as low as -2. Windy, with a southwest wind between 40 and 44 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 27 to 33 inches possible. Sunday: Snow. Temperature falling to around 21 by 11am. Wind chill values as low as -2. Windy, with a southwest wind 40 to 45 mph increasing to between 50 and 55 mph. Winds could gust as high as 75 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 35 to 41 inches possible. Sunday Night: Snow. Low around 13. Wind chill values as low as -7. Windy, with a west southwest wind 40 to 43 mph decreasing to between 26 and 29 mph. Winds could gust as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible. Monday: Snow. High near 19. Windy, with a southwest wind between 26 and 31 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 15 to 21 inches possible. Monday Night: Snow. Low around 14. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches possible. Tuesday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 22. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 boy this thread is great tonite weenies everywhere. pete perhaps lord blankfein could help us out...if he's not too busy making toxic securitys. i'm just ready to get slapped in the face for having hope at 0z . quick math says mammoth lakes looking at 140-180 inches over that period. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I agree Scott, also the ensemble mean of the GFS is also showing a further west QPF maximum which means it will probably trend west some. Let's see if the 00z models begin to notice that the vorticity over MO and TN will spark a change in the phase timing. I wouldn't say it "means" it will trend nw, just be on the lookout for it. Man, if you closed my eyes and showed me where the vortmax is, I'd be almost certain the low would be way west of where it's modeled. It's just too bad the baroclinic zone is so far se. However, like Tip mentioned....the forcing from the vortmax may help lower pressure and expand the precip shield south of LI. I can envision tomorrow as a day where lots of peeps are glued to satellite and radar, hoping for a massive nw bulge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 What in the sam hell? Enjoy your altostratus tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Anyone wanna take a trip to mammoth lakes, CA? Late Afternoon: Snow. Steady temperature around 20. Wind chill values as low as -3. Windy, with a west southwest wind around 49 mph, with gusts as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 26 to 32 inches possible. Tonight: Snow. Temperature rising to around 25 by 1am. Wind chill values as low as -2. Windy, with a southwest wind between 40 and 44 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 27 to 33 inches possible. Sunday: Snow. Temperature falling to around 21 by 11am. Wind chill values as low as -2. Windy, with a southwest wind 40 to 45 mph increasing to between 50 and 55 mph. Winds could gust as high as 75 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 35 to 41 inches possible. Sunday Night: Snow. Low around 13. Wind chill values as low as -7. Windy, with a west southwest wind 40 to 43 mph decreasing to between 26 and 29 mph. Winds could gust as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible. Monday: Snow. High near 19. Windy, with a southwest wind between 26 and 31 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 15 to 21 inches possible. Monday Night: Snow. Low around 14. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches possible. Tuesday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 22. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. I guess those totals would be considered flurries............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Anyone wanna take a trip to mammoth lakes, CA? Late Afternoon: Snow. Steady temperature around 20. Wind chill values as low as -3. Windy, with a west southwest wind around 49 mph, with gusts as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 26 to 32 inches possible. Tonight: Snow. Temperature rising to around 25 by 1am. Wind chill values as low as -2. Windy, with a southwest wind between 40 and 44 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 27 to 33 inches possible. Sunday: Snow. Temperature falling to around 21 by 11am. Wind chill values as low as -2. Windy, with a southwest wind 40 to 45 mph increasing to between 50 and 55 mph. Winds could gust as high as 75 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 35 to 41 inches possible. Sunday Night: Snow. Low around 13. Wind chill values as low as -7. Windy, with a west southwest wind 40 to 43 mph decreasing to between 26 and 29 mph. Winds could gust as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible. Monday: Snow. High near 19. Windy, with a southwest wind between 26 and 31 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 15 to 21 inches possible. Monday Night: Snow. Low around 14. Windy. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 18 to 24 inches possible. Tuesday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 22. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. i mean that is ridiculous i usually say its the mountains, so who cares but that is ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 LOL I said, "and some models show snow for Christmas... but it's 7 days out so way too early to say what will happen with that' also said, "Looks like our best hope for a white Christmas won't be this week but will be anything we see on Christmas Day" Geez, Kev made it sound like you were real high on the X-mas storm with all the "hit it harder" language. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I wouldn't say it "means" it will trend nw, just be on the lookout for it. Man, if you closed my eyes and showed me where the vortmax is, I'd be almost certain the low would be way west of where it's modeled. It's just too bad the baroclinic zone is so far se. However, like Tip mentioned....the forcing from the vortmax may help lower pressure and expand the precip shield south of LI. I can envision tomorrow as a day where lots of peeps are glued to satellite and radar, hoping for a massive nw bulge. scott what depicts where the barcoclinic zone is? what feature on models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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