December 19th-20 Storm Thread III

[moneypitmike]

The way I look at it, the slower the storm evolves the more time we have to be surprised. Most of us can't be disappointed--we already crossed that bridge.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looking more like the Euro though at H5. Plenty of time though.

Like I just said in the other thread, I need to see the EURO on board for that.....I know the cool thing to do will be to point out this recent EURO fail, but it's usually like a pitbull once it latches onto a shi**y soloution.

[Damage In Tolland]

JB admits bust still gives most of us snow...get shovels ready

BTW, while this storm is a bust on my part, it should leave and inch of snow on the Jersey shore to the CT river valley, 2-4 inches on the coastal Delmarva and Long island as well as Boston and PVD with heavier amounts on the cape. PHL to DC get off with a snowy sky, and little beyond. However its not yet a completely done deal... the vort max at 500 mb is coming right through the area where you want to see it for bigger snows, but the surface map is not co-ordinated with it. If the low develops more in close to the coast, the upward motion field would cause snow to break out further west and that is still a concern of mine.

[SnowGoose69]

IF anyone wants a clearer explanation of what I was talking about offshore read John's thread. Clearer=educated I don't know why the models do this I just know they do it.

If you look at the 36h 18z 700mb RH vs the 42h 12z you'll see how it all can tie together. We are starting to lose the signal for the bulge east. As a result at 700mb we are a smidge further west but we still have the cut in the moisture. Instead of a real nice comma head we have a NW shield a gap to the north and then more way out associated with the remnant low. So when it wraps up at 700mb it's wrapping in not much. About all our hope rides in the models being wrong on that low center being so far out to sea and instead the northern center takes over.

I'd say just sit and watch at this point.

You're exactly right IMO....if they are incorrectly resolving which low center is the dominant one we've got big issues....I have been worried about the bizzare depictions of multiple low centers for days and its probably a convective feedback issue.

[cpickett79]

The way I look at it, the slower the storm evolves the more time we have to be surprised. Most of us can't be disappointed--we already crossed that bridge.

i like how on the wV loop it seems some energy charges NE from central florida and seems like it may try and consolidate just se of myrtle beach s.c

http://www.ssd.noaa....s/flash-wv.html

also here is our little missouri vortex friend saying "hey guys wait for me." as it drops over/into NW tennessee SW kentucky

it looked like the flow was backing a bit more NE (over new england) SE of the Polar vortex ...but it also looks like there is a three pronged appendage hanging from that vortex that is acting now to make the flow a bit more zonal over ny and western new england. not sure what factor if any this plays. but is this appendage where the phase is gonna morph down in from eventually and what factor does the tenn/ky shorwave play now. i picture other players behaving and then the polar vort being too far east and screwing us....(although that may make zero sense based on 0bs) anyone have any clue

[Bryan]

Even if it is only an inch or so, excited to see my first snow of the season. Each light snowfall we've had this season i've missed it from sleeping or being in the library studying. Feel like I haven't seen a snow flake in a year....oh wait...

[40/70 Benchmark]

A xmas HECS would make this year worth it.

[Damage In Tolland]

A xmas HECS would make this year worth it.

Xmas snowstorm seems to me to have very little chance of happening

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Mike love the jaws quote

messenger looking at the current Ncep meso analysis pressures stopped dropping and are steady near south of hatteras and the only pressue falls i can find is near Palm beach, FL lol..

So according to the gfs and euro for that matter the low we are tracking is now near fort myers and will be exiting donald trumps high rises in Palm beach florida later tonite...? no c'mon

you can see a circulation about 100 miles SE of myrtle beach nc... bout 1012/1011 is this are "baby"

http://www.spc.ncep....r.php?sector=17#

Right now I see some drying on the WV in the northern GOM in the base of the trough. There's a faint curl there too (just sw of the hump in the panhandle). The spin coming down through MN is pretty tight. That's a player later too. The elongated feature coming into the TN....lots of components.

Hint that a little lobe of vorticity is racing off FL/GA right now. I can see where the models are hitting the developments well east of there. You can see some evidence of that already but can also see moisture increasing east of HAT. Quite a conflict.

I haven't changed my thinking even with the 18z models. Potential has increased but we live in the real world. There's some things that could change that could make this a much bigger deal but the chances that this is the time it happens? Slim....or we could say we are due...

[CoastalWx]

LOL, screw a HECS...any snow would be worth it.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

You're exactly right IMO....if they are incorrectly resolving which low center is the dominant one we've got big issues....I have been worried about the bizzare depictions of multiple low centers for days and its probably a convective feedback issue.

The RGEM I'd expect to have these issues. The GFS is known for it, the EC never seemed to suffer from it until last year when the made the changes. At this moment there is no indication which side is right. There's some hints of further east development and then there's a blossoming area of moisture way north where we need it.

The 18z NOGAPS came west pretty significantly. Let's see if the ORH rule takes effect.

[Damage In Tolland]

The RGEM I'd expect to have these issues. The GFS is known for it, the EC never seemed to suffer from it until last year when the made the changes. At this moment there is no indication which side is right. There's some hints of further east development and then there's a blossoming area of moisture way north where we need it.

The 18z NOGAPS came west pretty significantly. Let's see if the ORH rule takes effect.

Schwartz Synoptic Seven

[cpickett79]

Xmas snowstorm seems to me to have very little chance of happening

my $$ thanks to a Don S post is this thing is supressed south of here.....like a M/A to RUD special. i think D.C to RIC will be best for that.

[Boston-winter08]

18z GEFS still looks healthy

[Damage In Tolland]

my $$ thanks to a Don S post is this thing is supressed south of here.....like a M/A to RUD special. i think D.C to RIC will be best for that.

Our hopes for a solid White Christmas rest on tomorrow night and then the norlun Tuesday nite/Wed

[CT Rain]

A xmas HECS would make this year worth it.

18z GFS is a miss

[WeatherX]

18z GEFS still looks healthy

For Nova Scotia, yes

[cpickett79]

Our hopes for a solid White Christmas rest on tomorrow night and then the norlun Tuesday nite/Wed

agree strongly and if that doesn't work out i will be taking a christmas day flight 6am to GF's parents for 108 round trip out of manchester to RUD.

i stayed north for a better shot of snow......LOL.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

my $$ thanks to a Don S post is this thing is supressed south of here.....like a M/A to RUD special. i think D.C to RIC will be best for that.

And that post is the reason I haven't budge from the earlier thinking even with the NAM. This is a historic pattern though, so who knows if things get so far to one side that unexpected results occur.

18z GEFS still looks healthy

Yes

Our hopes for a solid White Christmas rest on tomorrow night and then the norlun Tuesday nite/Wed

Agree

18z GFS is a miss

10 seconds is too much time spent on that storm.

[cpickett79]

And that post is the reason I haven't budge from the earlier thinking even with the NAM. This is a historic pattern though, so who knows if things get so far to one side that unexpected results occur.

messenger not sure if we are talking about the same thing but he was reffering to the xmas threat as was i not this one. (supressed south of us)

speaking of this one.... l like this wv loop

http://aviationweath...lt_big&itype=wv

[ORH_wxman]

LOL, screw a HECS...any snow would be worth it.

The last 1,000 posts of this thread might be dedicated to hallucinating a NW trend that results in some inverted trough snow showers.

That's how you know its getting desperate with all these misses.

[CT Rain]

The last 1,000 posts of this thread might be dedicated to hallucinating a NW trend that results in some inverted trough snow showers.

That's how you know its getting desperate with all these misses.

Yeah it's going to be rough for those with the weenie goggles. I bet some of the mets in the NYC thread will also fall victim to the hallucinations.

[Damage In Tolland]

Not bad..hopefully wrong about Feb

Yes the end of December and sometime in January in the second half will be snowier times for you. In January, a classic gradient in snowfall departures may setup across New England/N. Mid Atlantic, and you would likely be on the positive side. The cold shot looks like it would start out west though and ultimately build east, akin to late Nov/early December. I don't think the NAO will cooperate as well as it did with the December shift; however, I don't think it will be positive either at the end of January. It may be more negative on the CPC calculation given the expected h5 heights at that time. February still looks warm overall; but as many here pointed out, changes late in the month into March seem probable.

[ROOSTA]

The last 1,000 posts of this thread might be dedicated to hallucinating a NW trend that results in some inverted trough snow showers.

That's how you know its getting desperate with all these misses.

Have to feed the weenie. Have to have some fun....there you go ruining it.

The fate of this was sealed 6 cycles ago. Hope beyond hope for a surprise. No? Ah.........imfatically NO.

Well there's always next Sunday

[CoastalWx]

The last 1,000 posts of this thread might be dedicated to hallucinating a NW trend that results in some inverted trough snow showers.

That's how you know its getting desperate with all these misses.

I know, I can just see that snow shield moving west and falling apart once it hits land..lol. Eh, hopefully I get something out of it.

[Mr Torchey]

Yeah it's going to be rough for those with the weenie goggles. I bet some of the mets in the NYC thread will also fall victim to the hallucinations.

Flow is really fast, downstream radars show precip flying off the coast. I think cc gets a few flurries, maybe a period of light snow and that is it, could there be an inverted trough somewhere. sure very local amounts of an inch or less.

The Nam was fun, but I think the overwhelming evidence otherwise points to a miss in general terms. I hate to say it, I was stoked at the srefs eta and nam, meh.

[forkyfork]

hopefully we can get the two vorts over the lakes and va to interact more

[ORH_wxman]

I know, I can just see that snow shield moving west and falling apart once it hits land..lol. Eh, hopefully I get something out of it.

Well hopefully a chunk of the area can pick up an inch or two our of it. That's certainly better than nothing.

[dendrite]

Every GEFS member is NW of the OP.

[Arnold214]

The last 1,000 posts of this thread might be dedicated to hallucinating a NW trend that results in some inverted trough snow showers.

That's how you know its getting desperate with all these misses.

have you taken a look at the individual sref members on the latest run? I havent had time plus i only have my cell at the moment. Im wondering if the sref mean is being domimated by a couple of members that are way left or if most of the members are actually trying to show an appreciable shift to the left.