Typhoon Tip Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 The thing is, the NAM may well be a signal for what we'll see at 0Z. It was that way when we were getting dampened down and this may also be the case. GFS will continue to show a miss but 0Z should be way better guidance and we should be able to (maybe not) run with it. Jer' If you are interested, I wrote a discussion that attempts to outline what is going on, and why [most likely] the NAM is doing this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 You're a fast phone typist. qpf blobs all over the place but it's tugging NW ward at 30 hours. Have to be careful because sometimes those are real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 You're a fast phone typist. qpf blobs all over the place but it's tugging NW ward at 30 hours. Woman in front of me looks like supermodel, heart about to give out on treadmill but it's been worth the 30 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 At 12z tomorrow the RUC has the 546dm contour over SE CT, the GFS has it over ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptspvd Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Jer' If you are interested, I wrote a discussion that attempts to outline what is going on, and why [most likely] the NAM is doing this. Tip, where can I find this discussion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Gotta look for subtle clues that the GFS may be catching up to the NAM on this run. I mean if it persists in forming the low way out on that baroclinic zone then you wont see a NAM-like solution... But maybe we'll see hints that it is "conflicted" via a more robust inverted trof etc. Then wait for 0Z for any true shift. On phone so it's tough to see but it hasn't come north right on coast at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I'm pretty happy with gfs. We will see some type of secondary maximum near us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Right when you think it's a miss. This trends any more W, could be a surprise Game On. The 12Z MM5 has this damn close. Kind of looked that way with all the chaos amongst the models. Best to stay conservative and keep the fingers from typing something jibberish. My prediction of cweat reappearence dead-on. Like clockwork....he-he-he Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Jer' If you are interested, I wrote a discussion that attempts to outline what is going on, and why [most likely] the NAM is doing this. Well we've talked about the possible convective feedback off and on for the past few days, but we've got every model popping a weak sfc reflection way off of the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 That little arm of qpf extending NW in SNE at 30 hrs is most def a signal of an inverted trough..same area Euro had it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 The speculation as to whether this can come west reminds me of Quint: He can't stay down with three barrells--not with three barrells!!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Does the GFS' solution with several QPF maximums and dual LP systems make logical sense to any? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Jer' If you are interested, I wrote a discussion that attempts to outline what is going on, and why [most likely] the NAM is doing this. Where is it John? TYIA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Where is it John? TYIA. Check the thread he made today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Does the GFS' solution with several QPF maximums and dual LP systems make logical sense to any? the placement could be off but the idea is not necessarily wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Well we've talked about the possible convective feedback off and on for the past few days, but we've got every model popping a weak sfc reflection way off of the coast. GFS wether East or West is CFB balls, now using a CFB as 850 center west, screwy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 GFS wether East or West is CFB balls, now using a CFB as 850 center west, screwy. what??? int to see that smattering of qpf in ct on the nam. lol 28.9/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Jer' If you are interested, I wrote a discussion that attempts to outline what is going on, and why [most likely] the NAM is doing this. Yeah what you said appears to be coming to SOME fruition in the modeling. I thought when the MAJORITY of GFS ensemble members had a decent hit for eastern NE including the big population centers that was a ruby red flag considering we're within 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 what??? int to see that smattering of qpf in ct on the nam. lol 29.0/19 Convective feedback, see Tippys thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 The speculation as to whether this can come west reminds me of Quint:He can't stay down with three barrells--not with three barrells!!!" Something like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Well I'll miss the dicso re 0Z. Another dance show tonight. It's a great show and what parent doesn't get pleasure from watching their child perform? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Something like this. I was trying to find a clip from the movie. Couldn't get it on youtube. Found it somewhere else, but couldn't get it to embed. Alas. http://movieclips.com/x8dLp-jaws-movie-barrels/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 IF anyone wants a clearer explanation of what I was talking about offshore read John's thread. Clearer=educated I don't know why the models do this I just know they do it. If you look at the 36h 18z 700mb RH vs the 42h 12z you'll see how it all can tie together. We are starting to lose the signal for the bulge east. As a result at 700mb we are a smidge further west but we still have the cut in the moisture. Instead of a real nice comma head we have a NW shield a gap to the north and then more way out associated with the remnant low. So when it wraps up at 700mb it's wrapping in not much. About all our hope rides in the models being wrong on that low center being so far out to sea and instead the northern center takes over. I'd say just sit and watch at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Well I'll miss the dicso re 0Z. Another dance show tonight. It's a great show and what parent doesn't get pleasure from watching their child perform? I hope you return to find good things, Jerry. I have futile imaginings of coming in and finding the 00z EC run from 12/16 28.3/18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 IF anyone wants a clearer explanation of what I was talking about offshore read John's thread. Clearer=educated I don't know why the models do this I just know they do it. If you look at the 36h 18z 700mb RH vs the 42h 12z you'll see how it all can tie together. We are starting to lose the signal for the bulge east. As a result at 700mb we are a smidge further west but we still have the cut in the moisture. Instead of a real nice comma head we have a NW shield a gap to the north and then more way out associated with the remnant low. So when it wraps up at 700mb it's wrapping in not much. About all our hope rides in the models being wrong on that low center being so far out to sea and instead the northern center takes over. I'd say just sit and watch at this point. Not much choice in the matter. I hope you guys get a good across the board nudge come 00z. It'll be nice to have some of the SNE eople getinto synoptic snows from this crazy roller coaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Not much choice in the matter. I hope you guys get a good across the board nudge come 00z. It'll be nice to have some of the SNE eople getinto synoptic snows from this crazy roller coaster. I'm sticking with a 50/50 shot of light snow or light rain from about marshfield to new bedford S&E. No clear trend. The RUC waivers around with some hints it's slowing it all down even more than the NAM but it's about at the edge of where it's useful. It's great for tracking features in continent, weak once we deal with features in the ocean. I'd say if its right it's raining on the NAM parade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Mike love the jaws quote messenger looking at the current Ncep meso analysis pressures stopped dropping and are steady near south of hatteras and the only pressue falls i can find is near Palm beach, FL lol.. So according to the gfs and euro for that matter the low we are tracking is now near fort myers and will be exiting donald trumps high rises in Palm beach florida later tonite...? no c'mon you can see a circulation about 100 miles SE of myrtle beach nc... bout 1012/1011 is this are "baby" http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfctest/new/viewsector.php?sector=17# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 ho ho ho potential from the GFS still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 really like how consistent the gfs is on the christmas potential. pattern looks good with +pna and relaxing -nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 really like how consistent the gfs is on the christmas potential. pattern looks good with +pna and relaxing -nao. Looking more like the Euro though at H5. Plenty of time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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