CT Rain Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 They rarely come to fruition...the 500mb setup is not ideal as you generally want to see more of a vort max or PVA, but its not bad either...the 850 setup though is very good. Models insist it primarily stays south of LI and SNE. Not the most impressive setup but it's something. What I'm saying is that the radar tomorrow afternoon is going to give a lot of weenies further north some false hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 The weenies are going to be going nuts tomorrow night. A lot of the models are developing an inverted trough/norlun signature south of LI that comes close to the NJ shore. The radar is going to look awesome as that's developing and the precip blossoms NW but in the end I think it will leave many still disappointed. I was thinking that. There will be a lot of radar hallucinations and Jan 2000 posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Snow chances look better than 50% right now..Hopefully 00z doesn't yank it away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I was thinking that. There will be a lot of radar hallucinations and Jan 2000 posts. Weenie goggles will make tomorrow unbearable on here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Flakes? Looks like about 0.25" near BOS and the 1.50" line tickles the south coast of ACK thru 51. Where's ACKwaves? I missed any disco on the 12z EC. Did it shed any light? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I missed any disco on the 12z EC. Did it shed any light? far east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Weenie goggles will make tomorrow unbearable on here Not as unbearable as yesterday was on here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 far east With a norlun extending into Eastern CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Not as unbearable as yesterday was on here lol yesterday was fine... wasn't much complaining at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 With a norlun extending into Eastern CT Yes, like 0.02" of it. 0.1" QPF makes it to Montauk and HYA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 lol yesterday was fine... wasn't much complaining at all Were you drunk? It was so bad I had to stay away for most of the afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 The weenies are going to be going nuts tomorrow night. A lot of the models are developing an inverted trough/norlun signature south of LI that comes close to the NJ shore. The radar is going to look awesome as that's developing and the precip blossoms NW but in the end I think it will leave many still disappointed. I alluded to that earlier...I hope it's not something that looks great over water and then the nw part fizzles as it comes towards the nw. We should have the over/under on how many wv images and radar shots will be posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Yes, like 0.02" of it. 0.1" QPF makes it to Montauk and HYA You know as well as anyone models don't do qpf justice on norluns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Norlun signature remains evident on 18Z NAM for LI...at 850mb you can almost see the NE winds on the east side and the NW winds to the east. most of us are not cheery to hear that a norlun is gonna hit LI and miss us teasingly. and from a NY perspective you make look more at LI but do you think this norlun will effect SNE? or the sref and 18z nam is out to lunch with qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I leave for 2 hours and come back to 4 pages about the 18z nam I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 You know as well as anyone models don't do qpf justice on norluns A lot of times they're overdone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I was thinking that. There will be a lot of radar hallucinations and Jan 2000 posts. You're missing the point. Its the lead shortwave that should be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 far east Thanks, im in attleboro this wknd...it would be nice if we somwhow could pick up an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Were you drunk? It was so bad I had to stay away for most of the afternoon Yeah cweat nailed the potential for this to come back NW and impact SE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 A lot of times they're overdone! I don't really see a strong NORLUN signature near sne on this run of the NAM...maybe off to the south, but not really near sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I don't really see a strong NORLUN signature near sne on this run of the NAM...maybe off to the south, but not really near sne. Yeah a signal south of LI but it doesn't really make it north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I think people are using the term NORLUN loosely. You can have some inv troughs with storms, but NORLUNS are unique. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 it's just east of NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 http://weather.wbztv.com/US/MA/Boston.html LOL. 1-2 feet on cape cod Good thing its an obvious mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I think the norlun is a red herring. It's a weakness that the models probably recognize this storm should be further nw than a position not far from Bermuda. I'm actually glad the Ec had it. I think we will have a good idea even at 0z...ruc will either be ramping up or tossing in the towel then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I think people are using the term NORLUN loosely. You can have some inv troughs with storms, but NORLUNS are unique. Never very well modeled either.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Funny the NAM eventually gets echoes all the way back to here with the retro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I think the norlun is a red herring. It's a weakness that the models probably recognize this storm should be further nw than a position not far from Bermuda. I'm actually glad the Ec had it. I think we will have a good idea even at 0z...ruc will either be ramping up or tossing in the towel then These systems are absolutely your specialty and it looks like you may nail another one. Not a done deal yet but you nailed the potential certainly and models are now picking up on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Still looks like snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 BOX: SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... THE MODELS HAVE NOW COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DEVELOPING OCEAN STORM WILL PASS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE BENCHMARK. WE DID NOTICE THAT SOME OF THE 12Z MODEL RUNS DID INCH A BIT TOO THE NORTHWEST FROM 00Z WITH THE QPF SHIELD. IN FACT...THE 15Z SREFS SNOW PROBABILITIES INCREASED AND THE 18Z NAM MADE A DEFINITIVE JUMP TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE QPF SHIELD. WE ARE CERTAINLY NOT GOING TO JUMP ON ONE MODEL RUN SUCH AS THE 18Z NAM...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE REST OF THE 18Z AND 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE THIS EVENING TO SEE HOW THE MODELS TREND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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