CT Rain Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Start whipping a few around the studio Just whipped it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Hopefully this gives more life to the mid-week inverted trough/retro stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 How much further do you guys think we can trend this before go time? Looking decent. Good job by all who stayed on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Scott (messenger) might have some fun in that. Comma head gets into se mass. What I hope doesn't happen, is for the comma head to look wonderful on radar, but then as it backs in...the radar starts going to crap as the fringe gets eaten up. I hated seeing that. This is still a miss mostly. I could see a period of moderate mixed rain and snow in this scenario, but we need more intensity. We really need one more run of the 500mb pretend features to vanish off the carolinas. That would help the models develop the low to the north, allow it to wrap a fwe hours earlier lifting precip into SNE and putting the pivot point over the SE MA/CC area. Right now the pivot point is still out to sea so it's the up and around which I hate. But lets face it, this is so close and the trend significant enough it has to be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 So NAM gives me advisory snow but I remain greedy. Such is the disease.....but I'll enjoy it if it comes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 So NAM gives me advisory snow but I remain greedy. Such is the disease.....but I'll enjoy it if it comes. lol absolutely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 This could be a case where the NAM sees the energy near MO diving southeastward more then modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 So NAM gives me advisory snow but I remain greedy. Such is the disease.....but I'll enjoy it if it comes. Agree 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 So NAM gives me advisory snow but I remain greedy. Such is the disease.....but I'll enjoy it if it comes. NAM weenie radar backs it right back in at hr 60 again..lol. This is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I will take warning criteria snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Coastal, how much weight in the short range do you into the NAM for your forecasts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Wow....just wow! 63 hour totals bring the 0.25 line to Ray and more pivoting down the coast per radar sim after storm gets captures and can't go further east. This is an interesting solution. Hello 12/26/04! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 NAM weenie radar backs it right back in at hr 60 again..lol. This is interesting. I refuse to use that composite sim radar...lol. So much of that NW edge goes into virga-sublimational hell. Nice trend nonetheless...especially for you guys. Of course, it's the NAM and it has let everyone down before...even inside 24hrs. Hopefully we see a little shift in the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Could the EURO be wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Nuckin' futs, what the hell is going on here? What are the mets going to call for now? Funny seeing the news last night having to go with their Pat's snow/game scenarios only to have the mets call out the change in forecast. Imagine if it's storm on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I refuse to use that composite sim radar...lol. So much of that NW edge goes into virga-sublimational hell. Nice trend nonetheless...especially for you guys. Of course, it's the NAM and it has let everyone down before...even inside 24hrs. Hopefully we see a little shift in the globals. Could we see anything out of this dendrite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 NAM weenie radar backs it right back in at hr 60 again..lol. This is interesting. We aren't much of a model perturbation away from a major snowstorm again. RUC each cycle is really going to down on the developing CH off th Delmarva. IF we can just get the models to be wrong about the phantom low offshore it could be party time. Need to see more support from the RGEM/even 18z NOGAPs moving NW and of course the GFS which always seems to make less severe moves. If it jumps well NW...screw the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I refuse to use that composite sim radar...lol. So much of that NW edge goes into virga-sublimational hell. Nice trend nonetheless...especially for you guys. Of course, it's the NAM and it has let everyone down before...even inside 24hrs. Hopefully we see a little shift in the globals. I never use it, but it's pretty funny...hence the name weenie radar. I'm not sure what to think. I mean I wouldn't be shocked if it came back a little west after yesterday's runs, but I wouldn't have expected an 18z nam type deal. I guess if the 18z gfs comes a little more west..it could be real, but I just don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Arguably the Euro having measurable snow into Eastern CT was sort of on this even though it was more with the norlun extension than the actual storm itself..Lots of signals from the models today..but they all do it in different ways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 This could start or continue the trend of showing a stronger, more consolidated low pressure center then previous runs indicated. THe northern jet stream energy over MO I believe is the key in determining whether or not this storm is closer to the coast or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Cool...downslope hell from the retrograding low. At least interior Maine gets walloped before the maritime air floods in. Wish the after-storm precip affected us via an inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Rotating the low down towards the SW in the later panels. Would not be surprised for this in the big picture to be a weenie delight solution for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 We aren't much of a model perturbation away from a major snowstorm again. RUC each cycle is really going to down on the developing CH off th Delmarva. IF we can just get the models to be wrong about the phantom low offshore it could be party time. Need to see more support from the RGEM/even 18z NOGAPs moving NW and of course the GFS which always seems to make less severe moves. If it jumps well NW...screw the euro. I need some more evidence. RGEM should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Arguably the Euro having measurable snow into Eastern CT was sort of on this even though it was more with the norlun extension than the actual storm itself..Lots of signals from the models today..but they all do it in different ways 100% agree those inverted troughs are often a signal of something else such as the models not being 100% sure on placement. Need the GFS to come NW too and the RUC to stay the course. It's been so good if it starts to slip east I'd buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 We aren't much of a model perturbation away from a major snowstorm again. RUC each cycle is really going to down on the developing CH off th Delmarva. IF we can just get the models to be wrong about the phantom low offshore it could be party time. Need to see more support from the RGEM/even 18z NOGAPs moving NW and of course the GFS which always seems to make less severe moves. If it jumps well NW...screw the euro. if this comes to fruition i will be taking shots for every inch of snow. i promise....sunday nite and monday i will stay up and cxl all my appointments. i will stay on the board aside from taking breaks to dance outside and throw weenies out into the parking. But settle down guys given the 5H set up and current WV trends etc....what is the most realistic placement for a LP ? does it seem like we not only need to back it west more but north as well ....at least with the intial CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Rotating the low down towards the SW in the later panels. Would not be surprised for this in the big picture to be a weenie delight solution for many. Rappers/weenies delight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 lol messanger this would be a major RUC win. This solution looks like a lot of the 12z GFS ensemble members - would be such a coup if this occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I need some more evidence. RGEM should be interesting. RGEM has been bad. But it did shift NW pretty handily just not with QPF. If it too bumps the moisture nw even if it's aloft...thats a biggie. what time is it out? What blows is I've got the hood christmas party tonight. If I'm on here making less sense than usual by about 11 you'll all know why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Whats funny is that the same places that got hit with the 2009 december KU get hit with this storm now. Merrimack Valley screwed again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Hopefully this gives more life to the mid-week inverted trough/retro stuff. yeah im pulling for you guys down there one of the funnier things ive noted during my time the past few years is that its often the 18z NAM which leads a charge when getting rather close to an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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