cpickett79 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 turns out there's a bit of weenie in everyone nam says this baby wants to curl up next to the NW wall of the Gulf stream? Eastern end of long island back to the islands FTW....seems most 12z guidance went a bit south with LP positioning? does moisture/lift RH look good for a nice precip shield NW of lp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 LOL, what's gonna be devastating is if a wall of 35dbz echoes is 30 miles se of the Cape. LOL yes exactly that's the wall I was looking at. If it can keep trending they'll get it. Wow 33 for them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Convective robbing of baroclinic zone is a real thing though....a lot of times models do it incorrectly, but it doesn't mean its fake in nature. The models may be over playing it here, but if its still happening to some degree, then it really isn't enough to make a huge difference. I highly doubt this is going to go 1/25/00 on us. Maybe we'll get lucky enough to pull out an inch or two though. Of course, it's inherently and highly dubious, or we wouldn't characterize it as "1\25\00". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Convective robbing of baroclinic zone is a real thing though....a lot of times models do it incorrectly, but it doesn't mean its fake in nature. The models may be over playing it here, but if its still happening to some degree, then it really isn't enough to make a huge difference. I highly doubt this is going to go 1/25/00 on us. Maybe we'll get lucky enough to pull out an inch or two though. I agree for a couple of reasons. 1, by the time the 1/25 situation became apparent this possiblities were no storm at all, or the 2nd energy triggering the storm. We have a storm here, it was just a mess. 2, totally different scenario with nowhere near the energy. But I really do believe there is something to the models doing this same thing in this type of pattern. We are now finally heading towards a consolidated big low near us. This map....heck wow. One more run of trends and it'll be like a viking holiday around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Not true down here my friend. 2-3" might be one of our larger events, and would be the largest event in a long time plus it's christmas snow you humbug bastage. 2-3" would be my largest event in over 10 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 2-3" would be my largest guy in over 10 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Models appear to be trying to focus on convection that develops from a weak piece of energy that races ewd well off the sern US coast away from main baroclinic zone which is much closer to the e coast...I find it hard to believe and will expect models to make some adjustment to account for the stg baroclinic bndry closer to the coast...I would expect a weak wave well offshore but main focus to take place much closer to this baroclinic bndry. I would expect some major adjustment to the models next few runs...we'll see. out the box triple bunnner :weenie: mets is there any credence to think the best barcolinic zone will be much closer to the coast given what we see on WV now and with models ? messenger...i think this latest 18z run has a LP position that matches the 5H map best. i think the trend is done...but i'm just a bumbling weenie but we need this TO GAIN LATITUDE now just as much as back west IMO. nantucket gets smoked at hr 36....congrats gay head, nantucket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Well, I've been stuck with you and Ryan this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 POTENTIAL STORM UNCANCEL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 18Z NAM.....would break BOS measurable snow drought tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Heck if the ground whitens for me...it'll make my day. Rather interesting run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 1-2 up to the CT river with higher amts farther east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 ITS A FESTIVUS MIRACLE!!!! :snowman: :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I'm hoping we can keep trending through 00z and 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I'm hoping we can keep trending through 00z and 06z Watch the RUC. It's even more serious than the 18z NAM. It's been right for the 30 hours I've been following it. Leading the charge so to speak. DISLCAIMER COMAPARISON ONLY FOR MENTION: If you were to go back and replay the tapes from 1/250/00 it was the RUC that blew up first. When the other models were still scratching one anothers balls on the strength the FSL site had some version of the RUC running that had it. I think this storm is like a bowling alley. We had gutter balls right for several runs. This may be the gutter ball left but the fact that we are gradually disrupting the feedback and as a result we see more precip up north...cool. Historic, unrecorded patterns have surprises. This may be the beginning of a major model change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Who is the former messenger from WWBB. Obviously a lot of you don't go back that far, but we all remembered him as messenger back then. He was less pessimistic back then than he is now...but he always has had the RUC fetish. I remember him when he used his real name on ne.weather about a dozen or so years ago. There was a time when many of us did....before the psets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 LOL at the NAM. Kind of thought this might happen after seeing the SREFs so far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 1-2 up to the CT river with higher amts farther east Flakes? Looks like about 0.25" near BOS and the 1.50" line tickles the south coast of ACK thru 51. Where's ACKwaves? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 LOL at the NAM. Kind of thought this might happen after seeing the SREFs so far NW. You gonna have snow in the forecast at 6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Flakes? Looks like about 0.25" near BOS and the 1.50" line tickles the south coast of ACK thru 51. Where's ACKwaves? .10 line straddles the river north to south based on that map Messy posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 You gonna have snow in the forecast at 6? Might. Last night I said a period of light snow was the "worst case scenario" this would be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 mets what features is the nam putting in a more favorable position for us that we may care to follow at 0z synoptically speaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Scott (messenger) might have some fun in that. Comma head gets into se mass. What I hope doesn't happen, is for the comma head to look wonderful on radar, but then as it backs in...the radar starts going to crap as the fringe gets eaten up. I hated seeing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Might. Last night I said a period of light snow was the "worst case scenario" this would be it. Unless the strong norlun sig. surprises Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I remember him when he used his real name on ne.weather about a dozen or so years ago. There was a time when many of us did....before the psets. It seems to have quieted down now which is good. I've learned to stay away from any type of role in any of these weather things because that's when the shi* show starts. Just look at the implosion of the other board. About every 5-8 years something catastrophic happens. I've already registered americanwx2 in anticpation (joking). Will yeah I was less pessimistic back then. But I enjoyed these "non" events just as much. Models have been screwing with us for a few years, it's these inside of 72 hour deals that have been beneficial to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Hopefully the GFS can follow suite for you guys up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 This is ridiculous, now it looks like it wants to stall it out SE of ACK with retrograding banding moving down from downeast ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Wow SREF >1"+ snow probabilities are decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Wow SREF >1"+ snow probabilities are decent. Start whipping a few around the studio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Flakes? Looks like about 0.25" near BOS and the 1.50" line tickles the south coast of ACK thru 51. Where's ACKwaves? Yeah through 54 the 0.25 line runs along the north shore of MA over or slightly west of BOS encompassing almost all of RI. 0.5 from messenger on SE, and 0.75 kissing Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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