Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Yeah it's the ruc but it's been good so far and it's game on per it You banging it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Just go find some girl and forget about wx for a week. You're still a young and single. LOL I'm single, but 90% the women my age have teenage kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 SREF came way NW just now...but not sure I really trust it. It could be just 2 or 3 weenie members skewing the mean. It has the 0.10" line though getting just W of ORE-HFD and 0.25" to south shore towns. Maybe sensing the norlun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Either NCEP site is not updating or the 18Z nam is very late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Maybe sensing the norlun? It might be, but the way it looked on the mean was that there were probably a few members that went nuts with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Either NCEP site is not updating or the 18Z nam is very late. well as Ray would say, if its showing snow for new england, they are probably reconfiguring the initialization Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Either NCEP site is not updating or the 18Z nam is very late. Its out to 15 hours on WSI...so some sort of data is getting through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 It might be, but the way it looked on the mean was that there were probably a few members that went nuts with it. Could this be why? From Johnny Dean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Either NCEP site is not updating or the 18Z nam is very late. Got it out to 15...you're not missing much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 West so far. I'm thinking it might be showing 1" QPF to cape and islands Rotten joke, jsut kiddin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Its really a shame we have this convection garbage focusing a baroclinic zone offshore like that....because the actual vortmax is tracking in a terrific spot for something to blow up SE of LI and track NE....as Tip alluded to in his new thread. This is what may help focus an inverted trough though...the tendency for the pressure field to want to lower in response to the vortmax tracking in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I'd like to lock in Eta5 of the SREFs. Lol, it gives us basically a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Its really a shame we have this convection garbage focusing a baroclinic zone offshore like that....because the actual vortmax is tracking in a terrific spot for something to blow up SE of LI and track NE....as Tip alluded to in his new thread. This is what may help focus an inverted trough though...the tendency for the pressure field to want to lower in response to the vortmax tracking in a good spot. You mean the atmoshere found a fluke way to make it not snow here in 2010; I don't believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I'd like to lock in Eta5 of the SREFs. Lol, it gives us basically a blizzard. Eta5 has been doing that almost every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 24 is looking a bit better with the comma head developing into us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 NAM says bring it baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 WOW, frame 5 of the NAM appears it will smoke us 12 hours later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Its getting so close now this is going to be devastating if it teases us back and then gives us blue balls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 The NAM brings the snow shield back to NYC at hr 27. Hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Its getting so close now this is going to be devastating if it teases us back and then gives us blue balls. If it actually started showing a big storm again it would be devastating...it it shows 2 or 3 inches and then pulls it away...big deal. That's nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Its really a shame we have this convection garbage focusing a baroclinic zone offshore like that....because the actual vortmax is tracking in a terrific spot for something to blow up SE of LI and track NE....as Tip alluded to in his new thread. This is what may help focus an inverted trough though...the tendency for the pressure field to want to lower in response to the vortmax tracking in a good spot. Yeah but I think that garbage is just that garbage. I know it's not true feedback but it is model generated stupidity. You can see now as we get inside of the 36/42 hour mark we're getting our developed classic comma head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Uh oh weenies...uh freaking oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 The NAM is actually further south with the vortmax at hr 27, allowing for the comma head to wrap further west. I'm a little surprised at the difference from 12z and 18z to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 If it actually started showing a big storm again it would be devastating...it it shows 2 or 3 inches and then pulls it away...big deal. That's nothing. Not true down here my friend. 2-3" might be one of our larger events, and would be the largest event in a long time plus it's christmas snow you humbug bastage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Even I'm nearly into OK snow for a bit there at 27, wow...this trend keeps on coming. Look how close the real fun snow is to the coast on 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Eta5 has been doing that almost every run. I was half jokingly telling some people that if any event would ever pull a Jan 2000, it would be this one. I hook myself up with a 3-spot: :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Forky should probably post his thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Yeah but I think that garbage is just that garbage. I know it's not true feedback but it is model generated stupidity. You can see now as we get inside of the 36/42 hour mark we're getting our developed classic comma head. Convective robbing of baroclinic zone is a real thing though....a lot of times models do it incorrectly, but it doesn't mean its fake in nature. The models may be over playing it here, but if its still happening to some degree, then it really isn't enough to make a huge difference. I highly doubt this is going to go 1/25/00 on us. Maybe we'll get lucky enough to pull out an inch or two though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 LOL, what's gonna be devastating is if a wall of 35dbz echoes is 30 miles se of the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman_bob Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Models appear to be trying to focus on convection that develops from a weak piece of energy that races ewd well off the sern US coast away from main baroclinic zone which is much closer to the e coast...I find it hard to believe and will expect models to make some adjustment to account for the stg baroclinic bndry closer to the coast...I would expect a weak wave well offshore but main focus to take place much closer to this baroclinic bndry. I would expect some major adjustment to the models next few runs...we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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