CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Congrats! just found out I'm gonna be a daddy too! Hope it's a boy also Congrats to you as well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Nam is effed up with 2 lows still.. it actually looks faster with the s/w at 54hr.. makes no sense Hopefully, this will be the abberation (sp?) of the 12z runs. At least no one has to worry about mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I think that the GFS has been leading the trends all along. Everytime is comes out with a run, all of the other models, besides maybe the NAM, are 2 steps behind it. It blows up the storm west, then changes east, then all the other models blow it up west, then head east. I have hopes that the 12Z run will come west, but my gut is telling me it will be either be where it is now, or even further east. I have a sickening feeling in my stomach right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Nam is effed up with 2 lows still.. it actually looks faster with the s/w at 54hr.. makes no sense Our southwest s/w totally outruns the Pacific energy.edit: congrats to everyone having babies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I think we have to wait til the euro this afternoon to call this dead. If the GFS, UK, Euro all come in way east, we can put it to bed. Just give it a few more hours.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Our southwest s/w totally outruns the Pacific energy. Is this a situation where it also robs energy from the trailing system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Ouch the NAM is brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Congrats! just found out I'm gonna be a daddy too! Hope it's a boy also Congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Ouch the NAM is brutal. At least in the Ct River Valley we all know how to keep our expectations in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Ouch the NAM is brutal. The lobster fleet on Georges will hopefully send us a snow report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 This was the run several well respected mets said mattered and I 100% agree. I think SE NE is still in the line of fire, but hopes are dwindling to the west of Bos to PVD. This is the NAM, until we see others with a similar whiff....not to worry but if this whole suite goes east forget-a-bout-it. I would say based on trends since 12Z yesterday, the threat is significantly lowered. The wild card is the back in which is notoriously difficult to achieve and predict and is now outside of the 3-4 day window of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I would say based on trends since 12Z yesterday, the threat is significantly lowered. The wild card is the back in which is notoriously difficult to achieve and predict and is now outside of the 3-4 day window of the models. Yeah I agree. I'm starting to think this could be a total whiff again. The chances for a blockbuster snow are dwindling fast everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Ouch the NAM is brutal. OES dusting for the Cape? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Where's Kevin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Is this a situation where it also robs energy from the trailing system? No, they just don't phase at the right time, thus the offshore development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 interesting how the two camp split we've seen on a lot of the ensemble packages is showing itself in the op runs...that is...OTS or massive hit. yesterday's 15z sref run for example was basically split in half - with hardly any middle ground. they were either full on crushers or nearly complete whiffs. a lot of the gefs members have been that way too for quite a while. it's been interesting though because it's produced a mean that "looks" good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 interesting how the two camp split we've seen on a lot of the ensemble packages is showing itself in the op runs...that is...OTS or massive hit. yesterday's 15z sref run for example was basically split in half - with hardly any middle ground. they were either full on crushers or nearly complete whiffs. a lot of the gefs members have been that way too for quite a while. it's been interesting though because it's produced a mean that "looks" good. Yup. And that's one of the things that can throw you off just looking at a mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 interesting how the two camp split we've seen on a lot of the ensemble packages is showing itself in the op runs...that is...OTS or massive hit. yesterday's 15z sref run for example was basically split in half - with hardly any middle ground. they were either full on crushers or nearly complete whiffs. a lot of the gefs members have been that way too for quite a while. it's been interesting though because it's produced a mean that "looks" good. That's a good point. There were literally two camps for a few days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well lets see how the rest of the runs do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 interesting trends. hvy hvy baby boy. Congratulations Mr and Mrs Phil, wondered why you were up for the Euro last night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Where's Kevin? Getting excited for 4 days of on and off accumulating snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Congrats Phil!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'm beginning to lose hope. We need a shift in the 12z runs and the NAM was a bad start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'm really worried about mixing, though. I might get some clouds on my otherwise sunny Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'm beginning to lose hope. We need a shift in the 12z runs and the NAM was a bad start. I think we can effectively cancel the Sunday snow. The 2-3 days later event may still be on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Aside from nzucker, this is something that nobody wanted to see. I remain optimistic for eastern areas, however. Close enough and still a couple days before gametime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well, Its the Nam, Looks like it wants to start retrogradeing on the last panel, Hopefully we can get the S/W to slow down on the GFS for an earlier phase, 0-1 so far, Takes 3 strikes to be out, Have to wait and see what the rest of 12z has to offer, But this run did not start this pkg off on the right foot.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I might be pulling at straws, but we could still see another flip flop with this.. this might be one of the rare cases Where the models change until 24 hours out... look at what they've done over the past 24 hours why can't they do it again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'm beginning to lose hope. We need a shift in the 12z runs and the NAM was a bad start. How come it seems the only times the models will always agree in these situations is when they all are going to miss? I really hope this is the NAM doing the usual thing and overfocusing on the first impulse. What scares me is everyone said yesterday that today was the key run where data is being sampled and we have this first model with a huge shift OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 That was a tough start. Maybe hope for wrap around Jerry..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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