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December 19th-20 Storm Thread III


Baroclinic Zone

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If worse comes to worse...just take a day trip up to like central NH to use them. :) I know that if I'm still stuck with a few inches of snow cover after Xmas - I'm taking some day trips to the Adirondacks at least to x country ski or snow shoe etc. In a real emergency, I'll go to Tremblant (the provincial park).....not the ski resort ..great x country ski trails.

I guess the sleds were not a good idea for this year at Christmas

:angry:

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Now that I think about it, I guess the river does get kinda wide south of Montreal Island in that direction of the Chataguey.. Sounds fun. :) I always cross on the Champlain Bridge and don't see that wide part.

it is extremely rare, in fact i cant remember a situation where it has ever happened, and i doubt env canada can either, since they had massive amounts of pie on their faces since. but i dont blame them, never in a million yrs would i have thought such a situation occurs around here.

but in fact Logan, Env Canada do occasiaonlly post a snowsquall warning due to river effect bands, usually 1-2 times a yr....but those warnings are for intense fast moving squalls aided by an arctic boundary and enhanced by the river on a westerly flow, and they last a couple hours and drop 2-4 inches max

but nothing like that past event a couple weeks ago which was on a retro flow, and if you looked at radar, there were distinct narrow horizontal E-W bands that kept dropping through the city repeatedly from the NE banks of the st.lawrence, while there was nothing to the east. it was a fascinaitng event to be sure, i guess in this strange pattern we are in, anything is possible. its the only significant snowfall we have seen since last janaury 1st retro storm, which in of itself was bizarre, lol.

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NOGAPS moved the snow shiled west a few hundred miles. It is kind of clear there will be a wall of snow near cape cod, probably within sight/radar range but just off with maybe some ocean enhanced precip just to the nw.

It's hard to argue the models are wrong when they absolutely all point to the southern low pressure monkeying it all up and causing the eventual consolidated low to form too far east but more importantly the southern low takes ALL of the important moisture with it.

By the time it all wraps up, there's nothing to wrap back.

EC shall be interesting, off to go shopping. It's not over yet down here.

from the freebe site it looked like the Euro was the only model 12z yest to have the 12z sunday lp 100 miles or so off hatteras (instead of halfway between bermuda and hatteras)

last nite looked very similiar to 12z's 24 hour low position extrapolated out....only 250 miles ene/NE of the 12z 48 hr position (yesterday) then seemed to hook it north a tad sharper last nite. (when compared with the run before)

so interested to see 12z position of the LP tommorrow sun 12...on the euro... it will probably move it 200 miles se of yesterday's 12z run.

i would love to see this euro show a low in the same position it did yesterday for 12z sunday and with a bit more amplified pattern taking it 100miiles west of last nite's position.

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from the freebe site it looked like the Euro was the only model 12z yest to have the 12z sunday lp 100 miles or so off hatteras (instead of halfway between bermuda and hatteras)

last nite looked very similiar to 12z's 24 hour low position extrapolated out....only 250 miles ene/NE of the 12z 48 hr position (yesterday) then seemed to hook it north a tad sharper last nite. (when compared with the run before)

so interested to see 12z position of the LP tommorrow sun 12...on the euro... it will probably move it 200 miles se of yesterday's 12z run.

i would love to see this euro show a low in the same position it did yesterday for 12z sunday and with a bit more amplified pattern taking it 100miiles west of last nite's position.

I would love it to show the same position as Thursday's 12z run.

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It is the former cweat.

Good luck on the possible snow, Cape dwellers. I'll wait for mine a couple days later.

Who is the former messenger from WWBB. Obviously a lot of you don't go back that far, but we all remembered him as messenger back then. He was less pessimistic back then than he is now...but he always has had the RUC fetish.

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Just went down into the snowless Ct.Valley. Jeeeessh, a brown landscape at Christmasis depressing. I can better understand the frustration/desperation of some of the posters here. Fear not, however, snow will be here for all.

Bare ground here, too. That's why I went for a drive in the Whites last weekend. Good for the soul.

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Yeah at least we have snowcover. 2 to 3 inches in open/wind swept areas and 4 inches on average in the woods. Not enough to enjoy winter recreation, but it beats bare ground.

Just went down into the snowless Ct.Valley. Jeeeessh, a brown landscape at Christmasis depressing. I can better understand the frustration/desperation of some of the posters here. Fear not, however, snow will be here for all.

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Even this close in the ensembles have qpf way west of the op. Guess we go old school and look at radar....lol...out with the doggie for a couple of hours.

Its not just do to one bullish member either...almost all of them are west of the OP...though only problem I have with really believing it is that none of the other models are coming in like that except maybe the NAM which was grazing eastern areas. I would have liked to see the RGEM/GGEM/Ukie come in a bit snowier.

f48.gif

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Bare ground here, too. That's why I went for a drive in the Whites last weekend. Good for the soul.

Funny, I was thinking of doing something similar -- maybe head up to the midcoast, where they've gotten some love from the recent retro action. I think there's snowcover as close as Wiscasset.

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Yeah at least we have snowcover. 2 to 3 inches in open/wind swept areas and 4 inches on average in the woods. Not enough to enjoy winter recreation, but it beats bare ground.

It's a little shocking to see it bare down there. I haven't been out of the hills in a while so my eye has gotten used to Winter white. I think there is snow down to the valley floor on the West side. I know Columbia County has picked up 5-6" this past week (at least the area around Chatham over to Austerlitz down to Catamount. Hope the poor CT. valley gets something soon those poor people have seen almost nothing it would seem.

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