December 19th-20 Storm Thread III

[NorEastermass128]

DC-BALT-PHI get crushed on the 12z GFS for the Christmas storm. Something tells me this will eventually be suppressed when all said and done...classic repeat of the Jan-Feb '10 pattern.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

48 hours ago the EC and the GFS also had a monster blizzard for us tomorrow and Monday. Look where we are now. I would daresay it's way to soon to say much of anything regarding the Christmas event (good or bad).

I'll bet a $25 donation that storm doesn't occur 24 hours either side of midnight christmas eve (christmas morning).

Having the GFS forecast a storm is like having Kev lock it up this year.

Our best shot will be a model bump inside of 48 hours, but we shall see. To me the GFS looks less impressive this run already for the 12/25.

[Tropopause_Fold]

White Christmas 100% for all of SNE

tend to agree yeah.

[weathafella]

I don't see the Christmas system happening. EC really doesnt have it and the new GFS isn't moving the big old low far enough NE fast enough.

I don't think much of the wrap around either, thing that will go bye bye south of the ME/NH/VT area.

I'm starting to think about pulling a goose egg for the season. j/k but we are 7 days short of tying the BOS record as the longest period between measurable snow. That record may have legs but a little lobe of pinwheeling shmutz coming down the coast dropping 0.1 can ruin it...

[Organizing Low]

already read it (the AO is forecast to plunge)

....i'm talking about the current storm and when the radar returns start heading NE or where they do (off shore)?

ahh ok

i thought you were taking about a pattern change

[weathafella]

I'll bet a $25 donation that storm doesn't occur 24 hours either side of midnight christmas eve (christmas morning).

Having the GFS forecast a storm is like having Kev lock it up this year.

Our best shot will be a model bump inside of 48 hours, but we shall see. To me the GFS looks less impressive this run already for the 12/25.

GFS is an absolute blizzard beginning mid day 12/25 fwiw.

[CoastalWx]

DC-BALT-PHI get crushed on the 12z GFS for the Christmas storm. Something tells me this will eventually be suppressed when all said and done...classic repeat of the Jan-Feb '10 pattern.

LOL, and all of sne. Probably will be in Montreal when the 12z/24 run comes.

[weathafella]

DC-BALT-PHI get crushed on the 12z GFS for the Christmas storm. Something tells me this will eventually be suppressed when all said and done...classic repeat of the Jan-Feb '10 pattern.

UHHHH ME is the jackpot for that storm per this run of the GFS

[Organizing Low]

well at this point I am more interested in the X-mas day or abouts storm.

well at least its something to look at, i agree.

[NorEastermass128]

GFS is an absolute blizzard beginning mid day 12/25 fwiw.

Just 7 days away...hold serve for 7 days...no biggie. IDC what the EURO shows this go around...no solution will be correct until 48 hours before the storm/lack of storm.

[weathafella]

Just 7 days away...hold serve for 7 days...no biggie. IDC what the EURO shows this go around...no solution will be correct until 48 hours before the storm/lack of storm.

It sure would be foolish thinking a 7 day storm is going to verify verbatim. But it's fun to watch on the guidance.

[Logan11]

Remember those seasons when everything seemed to trend north? What ever happened to those good old days.

LOL, and all of sne. Probably will be in Montreal when the 12z/24 run comes.

[Organizing Low]

LOL, and all of sne. Probably will be in Montreal when the 12z/24 run comes.

well we havent had a synoptic snowstorm here in nearly 12 months......so we're all in the same boat here.

with the AO tanked, id say you're chances are a lot higher than mine.

conversely, id say the MA has an even better chance.

but of course, there may not even be a storm lol.....but signals are worth watching.

[cpickett79]

Remember those seasons when everything seemed to trend north? What ever happened to those good old days.

ya where's kev with his southern stream rule

[weathafella]

If only....

[Logan11]

Didn't you you recently get like 25 cm from that retro situation?

well we havent had a synoptic snowstorm here in nearly 12 months......so we're all in the same boat here.

with the AO tanked, id say you're chances are a lot higher than mine.

conversely, id say the MA has an even better chance.

but of course, there may not even be a storm lol.....but signals are worth watching.

[wxeyeNH]

t

GFS is an absolute blizzard beginning mid day 12/25 fwiw.

For the Christmas blizzard do you think the coastal front would setup inside or outside Rt 128?

(Just kidding, had to do it. I am not even going to look beyond day 3 now, I spent hours and hours on tomorrow's non event and I am making a early New Years resolution not to look past 72 hours out on the modelst, its not good for my health!)

[Clinch Leatherwood]

If only....

based on recent model performance the safest place to be on that date will be the jackpot as modeled if you are flying or traveling.

I'm with you at least that I think Boston breaks the record, and that we likely make it to 1/1 without significant snow.

[Logan11]

Nice Jerry, but 40 miles more to the west please.

If only....

[moneypitmike]

Remember those seasons when everything seemed to trend north? What ever happened to those good old days.

Funny. As I was looking at the first 24 hours of the GFS Christmas storm in the BWI/DCA area, I had a flashback to the blizzards they had last year and seeing them in the bull's-eye several days out. I kept waiting for that target to move north. Waited, waited, waited. We all have those sad memories etched in collective memories.

It's a new year though! (actually, its' the same year......but a new season!!!!)

[moneypitmike]

ya where's kev with his southern stream rule

He's outside hoping his tears are confused with the water dripping off his newly washed car.

[weathafella]

t

For the Christmas blizzard do you think the coastal front would setup inside or outside Rt 128?

(Just kidding, had to do it. I am not even going to look beyond day 3 now, I spent hours and hours on tomorrow's non event and I am making a early New Years resolution not to look past 72 hours out on the modelst, its not good for my health!)

Yeah this week was a cruel lesson learned ( as it must be each season......maybe each storm....)

[Logan11]

Hey Gene you called this one right in being skeptical of that 12Z Euro. HAH I just couldn't believe that Dr. No would blow it within that time range. There were plenty of reasons for skepticism, but you come to look at the model as omnipotent after past successes, but no longer............

t

For the Christmas blizzard do you think the coastal front would setup inside or outside Rt 128?

(Just kidding, had to do it. I am not even going to look beyond day 3 now, I spent hours and hours on tomorrow's non event and I am making a early New Years resolution not to look past 72 hours out on the modelst, its not good for my health!)

[Organizing Low]

Didn't you you recently get like 25 cm from that retro situation?

they were bands forming off the st.lawrence river form the retro flow. not a synoptic event, and a total fluke like LE/OES. i posted the env canada brief explanation in the upstate thread. the heavy rain washed a lot of the snow away but luckily we got a little backside snow to freshen things up a bit.

though im not going to complain, since it was welcome as the call was for 1 inch....but fluke doesnt even adequately describe what happened....and deifntely

not as satisfying to me as a weather weenie, since there was nothing to track, lol.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

NOGAPS moved the snow shiled west a few hundred miles. It is kind of clear there will be a wall of snow near cape cod, probably within sight/radar range but just off with maybe some ocean enhanced precip just to the nw.

It's hard to argue the models are wrong when they absolutely all point to the southern low pressure monkeying it all up and causing the eventual consolidated low to form too far east but more importantly the southern low takes ALL of the important moisture with it.

By the time it all wraps up, there's nothing to wrap back.

EC shall be interesting, off to go shopping. It's not over yet down here.

[wxeyeNH]

Hey Gene you called this one right in being skeptical of that 12Z Euro. HAH I just couldn't believe that Dr. No would blow it within that time range. There were plenty of reasons for skepticism, but you come to look at the model as omnipotent after past successes, but no longer............

Not being a Met I lurk a bunch but don't post much. I never had a good feeling for this storm except for maybe a 3 hour period after the 0Z then the 12Z Euro came in the other day. I couldn't understand how a model would jump from way way offshore to an almost 1978 type storm. It made no sense. Then just a few hours later the 18Z the other models started backing off. I have noticed in the big events, 1978, 1993 etc the guidance is usually pretty clustered. There just seemed to be so many short waves etc.

[Logan11]

That's interesting. I wouldn't have thought that the St. Lawrence would be a big enough body of water there to generate snow bands. Of course it gets very wide above Quebec City I know. I get that rare Lake Champlain snow that makes it down to ALB on north winds...very rare and minor, but interesting.

they were bands forming off the st.lawrence river form the retro flow. not a synoptic event, and a total fluke like LE/OES. i posted the env canada brief explanation in the upstate thread. the heavy rain washed a lot of the snow away but luckily we got a little backside snow to freshen things up a bit.

though im not going to complain, since it was welcome as the call was for 1 inch....but fluke doesnt even adequately describe what happened....and deifntely

not as satisfying to me as a weather weenie, since there was nothing to track, lol.

[shawnmov]

I guess the sleds were not a good idea for this year at Christmas

[Organizing Low]

That's interesting. I wouldn't have thought that the St. Lawrence would be a big enough body of water there to generate snow bands. Of course it gets very wide above Quebec City I know. I get that rare Lake Champlain snow that makes it down to ALB on north winds...very rare and minor, but interesting.

it is extremely rare, in fact i cant remember a situation where it has ever happened, and i doubt env canada can either, since they had massive amounts of pie on their faces since. but i dont blame them, never in a million yrs would i have thought such a situation occurs around here.

but in fact Logan, Env Canada do occasiaonlly post a snowsquall warning due to river effect bands, usually 1-2 times a yr....but those warnings are for intense fast moving squalls aided by an arctic boundary and enhanced by the river on a westerly flow, and they last a couple hours and drop 2-4 inches max

but nothing like that past event a couple weeks ago which was on a retro flow, and if you looked at radar, there were distinct narrow horizontal E-W bands that kept dropping through the city repeatedly from the NE banks of the st.lawrence, while there was nothing to the east. it was a fascinaitng event to be sure, i guess in this strange pattern we are in, anything is possible. its the only significant snowfall we have seen since last janaury 1st retro storm, which in of itself was bizarre, lol.

[moneypitmike]

NOGAPS moved the snow shiled west a few hundred miles. It is kind of clear there will be a wall of snow near cape cod, probably within sight/radar range but just off with maybe some ocean enhanced precip just to the nw.

It's hard to argue the models are wrong when they absolutely all point to the southern low pressure monkeying it all up and causing the eventual consolidated low to form too far east but more importantly the southern low takes ALL of the important moisture with it.

By the time it all wraps up, there's nothing to wrap back.

EC shall be interesting, off to go shopping. It's not over yet down here.

Messenger--where are you located? Are you Cweat?