December 19th-20 Storm Thread III

[Boston-winter08]

12z GFS slightly more amplified out to 36 hours with comma head forming...next few frames could be interesting

[moneypitmike]

Anyway, good look guys from PYM S and E. Maybe you'll get something. It looks ready outdoors but we all recall the classic snow sky as the DC/BWI/PHL bomb was moving out under us last February with nary a flake beyond a few lonelies in the Cape and maybe minor measurable at ACK?

Not a whole lof of real estate PYM S and E, but we have some good board members there. Congrats may be in order.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

H7 RH fields at 30 look more impressive for a lot of you guys. It seems like the H5 low is closer to capturing the low, which the RGEM also hinted at.

Yes QPF is sparse to the NNW of the QPF bombs. At 700 it looks much better.

At one point the GFS has the "main" low way out under the convection. Right to the north of it, it has strong SW winds. Not likely.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Look on the bright side, we only need some minor changes in the upper levels for some action this upcoming week.

The players are on the field.

I am not going to get too nervous about the amount of snow until after Xmas. That's when things normally get going anyway.

At least I have snow on the ground, be it only about an inch or less.

Smith's Country Cheese FTW

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

12z GFS looks too spread out with all of the maximum QPF pools. There are three on three sides of the developing low. One to the NE, SE and NW of the low pressure. I think it is still going through convective feedback problems.

[moneypitmike]

and MPM you wanted to bury this thread......tisk tisk. SE mass peeps have snow dreams as well.

I was wondering when that (and who) would bring that up. I guess I'm to myb-centric. lol

[Boston-winter08]

12z GFS looks too spread out with all of the maximum QPF pools. There are three on three sides of the developing low. One to the NE, SE and NW of the low pressure. I think it is still going through convective feedback problems.

completely agree, NAM setup appears more reasonable

[weathafella]

GFS has some light snow on the Cape up to PYM beyond 42 hours.

[cpickett79]

the best thing would be if models were off on main LP placement hours 24-36 on latching on to the main LP near florida maintaining itself as the main LP.

Any mets care to share wether the 5H pattern would lend itself to the main low being situated say 150 miles east of N.C instead of being 350 miles wsw of bermuda ....like the 12z gfs depicts at h 30.

more interested in looking at 12z ensembles and comparing them with the 0z members which had 2 showing decent hits for E SNE.

[mattb65]

Convective blobs flying left and right on the 12z gfs lol. Might get a caper scraper

[Clinch Leatherwood]

GFS has some light snow on the Cape up to PYM beyond 42 hours.

the best thing would be if models were off on main LP placement hours 24-36 on latching on to the main LP near florida maintaining itself as the main LP.

Any mets care to share wether the 5H pattern would lend itself to the main low being situated say 150 miles east of N.C instead of being 350 miles wsw of bermuda ....like the 12z gfs depicts at h 30.

more interested in looking at 12z ensembles and comparing them with the 0z members which had 2 showing decent hits for E SNE.

Here's my thoughts on all of this:

1. We get the rear end of the horse many different ways the last 12 months. When in doubt we need to assume the worst will happen.

2. The GFS/RGEM and even the NAM all seem to be struggling with either make believe feedback or legitimate disruptions that will occur offshore. They look very suspicious to me right down to the SW winds north of the supposed low.

3. In a normal year I'd think that we would see a comma head develop back over at least SE NE. But the way things are going the double barrel setup the GFS has where we get heavy heavy cirrus under a pseudo comma head while all the moisture is cutoff to the east is plausible.

We right now are getting hit by a heavy cirrus comma head on the GFS. Heavy heavy broken hearts.

Would seem suspicious but we're going on like ten years without snow so.

If I had to make a forecast from Hingham to New Bedford S & E it would be chance of light snow or rain and leave it at that. Probably only 50/50 we see anything versus zilch. But luckily it's still about 36 hours away.

[Logan11]

I'm suspicious that the GFS is jumping the low development too far out to sea - possibly where the main baroclinic zone lies now. I have seen this model do that before. Best vorticity may suggest further west. At the least - I think the Cape sees a long duration of light snows..have to see if gets west of CCC.

Here's my thoughts on all of this:

1. We get the rear end of the horse many different ways the last 12 months. When in doubt we need to assume the worst will happen.

2. The GFS/RGEM and even the NAM all seem to be struggling with either make believe feedback or legitimate disruptions that will occur offshore. They look very suspicious to me right down to the SW winds north of the supposed low.

3. In a normal year I'd think that we would see a comma head develop back over at least SE NE. But the way things are going the double barrel setup the GFS has where we get heavy heavy cirrus under a pseudo comma head while all the moisture is cutoff to the east is plausible.

We right now are getting hit by a heavy cirrus comma head on the GFS. Heavy heavy broken hearts.

Would seem suspicious but we're going on like ten years without snow so.

If I had to make a forecast from Hingham to New Bedford S & E it would be chance of light snow or rain and leave it at that. Probably only 50/50 we see anything versus zilch. But luckily it's still about 36 hours away.

[Bostonseminole]

well at this point I am more interested in the X-mas day or abouts storm.

[Logan11]

Sure ...but after this debacle we gotta remember the xmas storm is nothing but a computer fantasy now. So I just look at the models for amusement on that now...wake me up around Wednesday.

well at this point I am more interested in the X-mas day or abouts storm.

[cpickett79]

Here's my thoughts on all of this:

In a normal year I'd think that we would see a comma head develop back over at least SE NE. But the way things are going the double barrel setup the GFS has where we get heavy heavy cirrus under a pseudo comma head while all the moisture is cutoff to the east is plausible.

i remember last year in january these lows kep dampening out as they tried to head NE.....the confluence was so overbearing from the GOM over to the maritimes it was maddening.

messenger look at the 30 hr nam positon.....there is a heart shaped 1004 mb lp contour well east of sc/nc. the lp is positiioned on the SE side of this 1004 area. seems 5h argues it would be further NW. also western wall of g.s is along the NW side of this 1004 lp blob/heart shaped area.....which would place the main low about 200 miles further nw. this isn't pure weenieism talking. so here's to watching this unfold

[moneypitmike]

Here's my thoughts on all of this:

1. We get the rear end of the horse many different ways the last 12 months. When in doubt we need to assume the worst will happen.

2. The GFS/RGEM and even the NAM all seem to be struggling with either make believe feedback or legitimate disruptions that will occur offshore. They look very suspicious to me right down to the SW winds north of the supposed low.

3. In a normal year I'd think that we would see a comma head develop back over at least SE NE. But the way things are going the double barrel setup the GFS has where we get heavy heavy cirrus under a pseudo comma head while all the moisture is cutoff to the east is plausible.

We right now are getting hit by a heavy cirrus comma head on the GFS. Heavy heavy broken hearts.

Would seem suspicious but we're going on like ten years without snow so.

If I had to make a forecast from Hingham to New Bedford S & E it would be chance of light snow or rain and leave it at that. Probably only 50/50 we see anything versus zilch. But luckily it's still about 36 hours away.

So--50% chance of snow or rain. Sounds like you've got a winning forecast no matter the outcome. lol

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I'm suspicious that the GFS is jumping the low development too far out to sea - possibly where the main baroclinic zone lies now. I have seen this model do that before. Best vorticity may suggest further west. At the least - I think the Cape sees a long duration of light snows..have to see if gets west of CCC.

I'd agree but the last few years we've had these situations and the best outcome is some snow on ACK sometimes.

It's usually not until -h24 before the issues resolve, so maybe 18z or 0z.

The GFS should have delivered more significant precip much further NW but its getting cutoff and cant wrap west.

[moneypitmike]

well at this point I am more interested in the X-mas day or abouts storm.

I'm more interested to see if I get flurries in the middle of the week.

[Bostonseminole]

Sure ...but after this debacle we gotta remember the xmas storm is nothing but a computer fantasy now. So I just look at the models for amusement on that now...wake me up around Wednesday.

oh i agree, I am not staying up for it or anything..

[cpickett79]

is there a piece of energy to watch which would incidate wether the main LP scenario plays out or wether more of a double barrell area takes shape.

do we snow weenies want to see the area over florida that moves ENE/NE to weaken /dampen out.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I'm more interested to see if I get flurries in the middle of the week.

I think the next one is going poof.

[ORH_wxman]

is there a piece of energy to watch which would incidate wether the main LP scenario plays out or wether more of a double barrell area takes shape.

do we snow weenies want to see the area over florida that moves ENE/NE to weaken /dampen out.

There's nothing to track for 95% of the area for tomorrow/Monday...if you are on Cape Cod, you might keep an eye out for an inch or two. We probably want closer track overall since it will enhance the Wednesday threat.

[Bostonseminole]

I think the next one is going poof.

why?

[Logan11]

I still think that by far the primary problem with this event is that the southern stream s/w is just a P. of S...t. LOL The confluence wouldn't be overbearing if we had a strong s/w that went negative and pumped up against the block. The long wave features were decent at least for NE. But you got to have a consolidated piece of energy to work with and southern stream is an under performer this season with the sub tropical jet not even a player as it was last year.

So eventually even with the less than stellar southern stream a storm does have to evolve given the upstream block, but too far east for most....

As to Xmas.... we are dealing with the southern stream again...they want to form a storm because the pattern argues that there should be low pressure in that spot, but it could implode into a weak thing just like this ...or maybe we get luckier.

i remember last year in january these lows kep dampening out as they tried to head NE.....the confluence was so overbearing from the GOM over to the maritimes it was maddening.

messenger look at the 30 hr nam positon.....there is a heart shaped 1004 mb lp contour well east of sc/nc. the lp is positiioned on the SE side of this 1004 area. seems 5h argues it would be further NW. also western wall of g.s is along the NW side of this 1004 lp blob/heart shaped area.....which would place the main low about 200 miles further nw. this isn't pure weenieism talking. so here's to watching this unfold

[Clinch Leatherwood]

why?

I don't see the Christmas system happening. EC really doesnt have it and the new GFS isn't moving the big old low far enough NE fast enough.

I don't think much of the wrap around either, thing that will go bye bye south of the ME/NH/VT area.

[cpickett79]

There's nothing to track for 95% of the area for tomorrow/Monday...if you are on Cape Cod, you might keep an eye out for an inch or two. We probably want closer track overall since it will enhance the Wednesday threat.

.....so long as the 12z gfs shows a couple member showing accums for E SNE i will be tracking.

i'm not jumping on to believing this will happen but i'll be tracking.

[Bostonseminole]

well good all GFS has the storm for x-mas day.. we will see.. pretty funny.. wake me up on Thursday.

[moneypitmike]

I don't see the Christmas system happening. EC really doesnt have it and the new GFS isn't moving the big old low far enough NE fast enough.

I don't think much of the wrap around either, thing that will go bye bye south of the ME/NH/VT area.

48 hours ago the EC and the GFS also had a monster blizzard for us tomorrow and Monday. Look where we are now. I would daresay it's way to soon to say much of anything regarding the Christmas event (good or bad).

[Bostonseminole]

would be nice to have some snow around come x-mas day.. anything...

[Bostonseminole]

48 hours ago the EC and the GFS also had a monster blizzard for us tomorrow and Monday. Look where we are now. I would daresay it's way to soon to say much of anything regarding the Christmas event (good or bad).

yeah, i agree, way to early to downplay or hype anything.. specially after the beating we just took.