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December 19th-20 Storm Thread III

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted

Nobody, and I mean nobody, can make snow like they do in the East.

Some places don't really need to...

:whistle:

Point Forecast: 20 Miles ENE Blue Canyon CA

39.38°N 120.36°W (Elev. 8397 ft)

Today: Snow. Temperature falling to around 26 by 4pm. Windy, with a southwest wind between 32 and 38 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.

Tonight: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature rising to around 29 by 1am. Windy, with a southwest wind between 21 and 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible.

Sunday: Snow. High near 30. Windy, with a south southwest wind between 26 and 36 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 13 to 19 inches possible.

Sunday Night: Snow. Low around 21. Windy, with a southwest wind between 25 and 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

Monday: Snow. High near 27. Breezy, with a south southwest wind around 26 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Monday Night: Snow. Low around 19. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Should be a 3 day total in the 50"-60" range.

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cpickett79

cpickett79

Posted
Posted

The other big change I think we're seeing is the feedback is resolving. Look down well east of the carolinas, h24 at 12z vs h36 at 0z.

Notice those spurious type 500mb vortices that are above the QPF bombs are shifting hard NW. That's HUGE. One more run of that going away and I think we put Bos to PVD SE back in the game.

wow i'm being out :weenie:'ied this morning

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted

Scott assuming the NAM is right now in blowing up the feedback (sometimes although it's feedback related we still do see clusters of storms out there that rob QPF..I do think this time it's leading ot spurious low placement and a dilluted low earlier) and that other models will show the same, I think we're good to go. The diseased comma head will fill in as we approach the system.

GFS ensembles and SREFs are almost universally misses except extreme SE. WV and radar look so so. RGEM could confirm or deny the NAM close call. I'd like to see more digging, s/w vorticity, and precip response across coastal plain on radar/satellite. I'd have some interest right now if I were on the Cape, Islands, or downeast Maine. Otherwise minimal.

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Organizing Low

Organizing Low

Posted
Posted

I had a nice sleep, enjoyed time with the kids and laughed as the NAM 0h came out.. This is our only shot and I still think there' s a major issue with feedback which is preventing a much more forbidable comma head from showing.

It's not over yet but I've come to another realization.

Model performance has been so bad for a year it is STILL too far out to really care. Tonight maybe, first thing Sunday sure. This could be a fun run, but it is still too far out.

This is two main runs in a row that have ticked back 100+ miles.

and thats scary isnt it.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

So Cape Cod, MA does get in on the comma head. Nice. We just need to see a better trend with the rest of the guidance. 00z EURO looked closer to the coast then the 12z run yesterday. I am excited for a few inches of snow. By the way, the 9z SREF probs showed about a 45-50% chance of 12" or more of snow from the BOS to PVD back to ORH. Unless that was from a different run, which I doubt, how does the SREF show such high probabilities? Also they show no accumulation for Cape Cod, MA, probably because of the mesoscale environment of the Cape and predicted low level temperatures. However dynamic cooling should be sufficient enough to offset the warmer bl temperatures.

Scott do you think delta ts will be sufficient enough for snowfall rates around 1"/hour?

SREFs look all messed up to me on the PSU site. I don't how they could have those probs for the Cape...seems totally out to lunch..throw that out. I mean it barely has any qpf for the Cape.

As far as delta t goes, it's proably enough for oes, but I would not guess on snowfall rates because oes is extremely mesoscale. It's not even a given....but the chance is there.

I would hold back any excitement right now. Wait until the rest of the 12z run comes in to see of the Cape can get synoptic snow.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

GFS ensembles and SREFs are almost universally misses except extreme SE. WV and radar look so so. RGEM could confirm or deny the NAM close call. I'd like to see more digging, s/w vorticity, and precip response across coastal plain on radar/satellite. I'd have some interest right now if I were on the Cape, Islands, or downeast Maine. Otherwise minimal.

100% agree. This is being driven entirely by what may be phantom moves. There are two big changes one that I believe is real another that I am not sure. The first is west of Chicago at 24-36 hours. This has been the trend the RUC has been on for a day. That s/w is a little stronger keeps ending up west/sw of guidance. The NAM really latched on that this time and maybe it took it being in the US for a run or two for the models to see it. Related downstream SE of the OV s/w we are now seeing a more consolidated s/w complex that is further NW. Now if this is being driven by feedback we will see this disruption continue to diminish as is common in the next 18 hours. IF IF that is truly a model issue without the distraction of that southern low appendage it may get much more interesting up here. The problem is we stll have a brick wall that won't allow much to pass from Bos to PVD north on the NAM scenario. Snow may make it to about the canal, and then just flurries. I shouldn't even say snow...could be rain.

The GFS is always slow to change in these situations. I need to see it make at least a solid 50 shift NW. RGEM I worry less about, it seems to have some real issues with the offshore lows. Sure a move NW would be nice.

The NAM run looks like a great move but it might be totally alone...who knows.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Anyway, good look guys from PYM S and E. Maybe you'll get something. It looks ready outdoors but we all recall the classic snow sky as the DC/BWI/PHL bomb was moving out under us last February with nary a flake beyond a few lonelies in the Cape and maybe minor measurable at ACK?

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Look on the bright side, we only need some minor changes in the upper levels for some action this upcoming week.

The players are on the field.

I am not going to get too nervous about the amount of snow until after Xmas. That's when things normally get going anyway.

At least I have snow on the ground, be it only about an inch or less.

Good post. It may not be this week but EVENTUALLY our run of bad luck will end.

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cpickett79

cpickett79

Posted
Posted

looks like the 12z gfs doesn't initialize the current down stream prceip trends in the SE very well.

this based of it's 6 hr 12z qpf field and reports out of the SE regional thread of higher than forecast rainfall totals. not a bad thread for weenies to lurk in.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/4082-weekend-storm-discoobs-dec-18th-19th-part-2/page__st__520

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Just spent 2 hrs washing the salt off the cars..what a mess

You and I have such different approaches to life. It would kill you if I were you're neighbor. Leaves on the lawn until they're completely dropped. I haven't washed a car in a few years. lol

I do mow the lawn though. But that's as much for a few hours of riding in solitude than the need for nicely cut grass, though that is the outcome.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

looks like the 12z gfs doesn't initialize the current down stream prceip trends in the SE very well.

this based of it's 6 hr 12z qpf field and reports out of the SE regional thread of higher than forecast rainfall totals.

Eh, problem is changes are minor and the GFS programming always seems to dampen anything out beyond 12 hours.

Be interesting to watch it come in.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted

You and I have such different approaches to life. It would kill you if I were you're neighbor. Leaves on the lawn until they're completely dropped. I haven't washed a car in a few years. lol

I do mow the lawn though. But that's as much for a few hours of riding in solitude than the need for nicely cut grass, though that is the outcome.

Well you must really annoy your neighbor if she had to take a trip to space to be away from you :P

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