Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

December 19th-20 Storm Thread III


Baroclinic Zone

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

12z NAM is much closer with the comma head to SNE then earlier runs today. This is a good trend, actually let's see if the other models can trend westward, because the 00z EURO looked closer then the 12z run yesterday. Can we trend towards a bigger event within the next 36 hours? Maybe. OES seems like a great bet right now, but delta ts are not that intense. This time around we are relying on appreciable delta ts and not the wind direction.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pete, it is good to be optimistic, but injecting a bit of realism is prudent as well. BOS could set a futility record for going snowless. Good chance it (the record) won't happen, and I really hope the switch gets flipped somehow - at this point not sure what it would take to get things over the hump towards Epicville. It will snow of course, it has here and I have snow on the ground... sort of... My snowblower sits in the shed and weeps.

Many of us (novices like me, wise folks, mets), were teased and had a big football yanked from us.

We are all Charlie Brown and the models have been Lucy.

I'm going to take a page out of Ray's play book. I don't care if Boston never sees snow again. As long as it snows at the ski areas here on North. I'm not sure any of the Mets here were duped. I remember Scott offering up some healthy doubt. One model run does not a KU make. I for one didn't get overly jazzed. I'll wait for a threat that doesn't have as many moving parts and has a well modeled, consistent track. It's White here now and will likely get Whiter as we go on in time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Where do you see light snow covering allof ct on the nam? Am I missing something, you sent me into cardiac arrest, I just looked and see flurries brushing Montauk pt????

I'd relax...it's not a big deal. It's a close hit and some flurries or very light snow for us. Still beats nothing. We will likely end up with a T-1 kinda thing if the slight trend continues. It will be a decent event for SE MA though, good for them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So we are having breakfast in the Employee Cafe this AM,WTNH Met says and knocks on wood, I am so glad this storm went out to sea, FU weather guy I say go into the used car business or move to Puerto Rico.

I could puke when I hear these mindless dolts say that stuff. We should run them out of New England on a rail.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z NAM is much closer with the comma head to SNE then earlier runs today. This is a good trend, actually let's see if the other models can trend westward, because the 00z EURO looked closer then the 12z run yesterday. Can we trend towards a bigger event within the next 36 hours? Maybe. OES seems like a great bet right now, but delta ts are not that intense. This time around we are relying on appreciable delta ts and not the wind direction.

I'd be a little concerned about lower levels over the Cape. Temps may be a little too warm, especially if the precip is light. It's pretty cold aloft, so if we have decent precip rates, it probably would be snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm going to take a page out of Ray's play book. I don't care if Boston never sees snow again. As long as it snows at the ski areas here on North. I'm not sure any of the Mets here were duped. I remember Scott offering up some healthy doubt. One model run does not a KU make. I for one didn't get overly jazzed. I'll wait for a threat that doesn't have as many moving parts and has a well modeled, consistent track. It's White here now and will likely get Whiter as we go on in time.

Pretty sure most of the mets (if not all) were offering at least grains of salt with this one, in some cases really downplaying it, but they also were getting excited by the Euro on Thursday and into the night. Definitely no one at that end was duped.

Obviously it will get snowy at some point, but you would have thought that we (including you, BOS, Maine, whatever) would get 1 decent storm before New Year's. Still could happen, in fact I think this week will be better than projected.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12Z NAM is interesting for se mass.

exactly.....now let's see if this is a 9'th inning trend.

the once bitten twice shy group is emotionally burned from the model flip flop IMO and is traumatized from getting their hopes up again. (and before you labe this pure weeniesm as i'm sure your mentally inclined given the above.

a very good met i read on the board "barcolonic instability" said

there is a chance that the models don't get this right to the last minute (due to the set up) coupled with the following

scott do you remember (as i have been searching all morning to no avial) the process the HPC was alluding to on tues of this week....when they were tossing the euro....and mentioning the SST anomalies and rapid deepening of surface lows and barcolinic instability resulting from said SST anomalies would play a part in the track and strength of the system but is not modeled well?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

MRG is a big booster of Dusty Springfield !

I have know idea who he is but if he's a can do American with a never say die attitude he's got my vote. America was not built by mamby pamby defeatists. We need tough as nails people that don't curl up in the fetal position when adversity strikes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have know idea who he is but if he's a can do American with a never say die attitude he's got my vote. America was not built by mamby pamby defeatists. We need tough as nails people that don't curl up in the fetal position when adversity strikes.

Female singer who had a few hits late 60's -early 70's. One of her biggies was Wishin and Hopin ! It's fair to say that she has more than a few fans here, myself included.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd be a little concerned about lower levels over the Cape. Temps may be a little too warm, especially if the precip is light. It's pretty cold aloft, so if we have decent precip rates, it probably would be snow.

Are delta ts sufficient enough for significant snowfall rates?

Your screen name is longer than my address, first name, sorry. Wait a minute Nickname, hmm OESfreak?

James, my name is James.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pretty sure most of the mets (if not all) were offering at least grains of salt with this one, in some cases really downplaying it, but they also were getting excited by the Euro on Thursday and into the night. Definitely no one at that end was duped.

Obviously it will get snowy at some point, but you would have thought that we (including you, BOS, Maine, whatever) would get 1 decent storm before New Year's. Still could happen, in fact I think this week will be better than projected.

I basically doubt model solutions whether good or bad for anything beyond 48-72 hours. I've been on the snow vigil for decades now and it seems like when things look bleak something always comes along to renew my faith in Ullr. I suspect this Winter will be no different. BTW, New Year's Day is still a long way away in weather terms. Something will pop.

Your screen name is longer than my address, first name, sorry. Wait a minute Nickname, hmm OESfreak?

Lol. CapeKid.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...