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December 19th-20 Storm Thread III

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

Wow, you guys all give up so easily. What the hell? Waaa waaaa waaaa. It's never going to snow ever again, waaaa. Santa's not coming this year waaaa. Geez, get it together. Act like can do American's and not defeatists. You act as if the models provide a measure of clairvoyance. This last episode should tell you that they are fallible. Snow will come to all. Oh, and save the "but if we don't get snow now it won't happen because January and February will torch." arguement for someone that believes that crap.

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cpickett79

cpickett79

Posted
Posted

3 of the 12 0z gfs members last nite give eastern new england accumulating snows from the main lp pressure system..2 of which seems plowable just eyeballing for eastern 1/3 of new england.

a subtle shift west today and there IS ROOM and all those that are once bitten twice shy from this system may be late to admit there is still something possible.

now it would appear that the latent heat release mechanism which is poorly modeled if memory serves me correct could be the culprit for a more NW expansion of precip shield as well as IF we could get this low to consolidate into one system further west along the edge of the gulf stream

also looks like the nam continues to under perform with qpf in the initial utilization of this system looking at the 0z , 6z models and there short term 6 hour qpf fixes compared to radar presentation in the south.

still watchin.......

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

3 of the 12 0z gfs members last nite give eastern new england accumulating snows from the main lp pressure system..2 of which seems plowable just eyeballing for eastern 1/3 of new england.

a subtle shift west today and there IS ROOM and all those that are once bitten twice shy from this system may be late to admit there is still something possible.

now it would appear that the latent heat release mechanism which is poorly modeled if memory serves me correct could be the culprit for a more NW expansion of precip shield as well as IF we could get this low to consolidate into one system further west along the edge of the gulf stream

also looks like the nam continues to under perform with qpf in the initial utilization of this system looking at the 0z , 6z models and there short term 6 hour qpf fixes compared to radar presentation in the south.

still watchin.......

That's the never say die spirit that made this country great. Go Pickles!

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

3 of the 12 0z gfs members last nite give eastern new england accumulating snows from the main lp pressure system..2 of which seems plowable just eyeballing for eastern 1/3 of new england.

a subtle shift west today and there IS ROOM and all those that are once bitten twice shy from this system may be late to admit there is still something possible.

now it would appear that the latent heat release mechanism which is poorly modeled if memory serves me correct could be the culprit for a more NW expansion of precip shield as well as IF we could get this low to consolidate into one system further west along the edge of the gulf stream

also looks like the nam continues to under perform with qpf in the initial utilization of this system looking at the 0z , 6z models and there short term 6 hour qpf fixes compared to radar presentation in the south.

still watchin.......

:weenie:

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DomNH

DomNH

Posted
Posted

00z EC inv trof QPF

0.50" line...EFK-LCI-ASH-ORH-TAN

0.25" line...PBG-VSF-BAF-BDL-GON

0.10" line...ALB-DXR-BDR

Nice...if the norlun is what's going to give us snow then so be it. All I want at this point is 1-3'' to make it look nice for Christmas. Something has to give.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

3 of the 12 0z gfs members last nite give eastern new england accumulating snows from the main lp pressure system..2 of which seems plowable just eyeballing for eastern 1/3 of new england.

a subtle shift west today and there IS ROOM and all those that are once bitten twice shy from this system may be late to admit there is still something possible.

now it would appear that the latent heat release mechanism which is poorly modeled if memory serves me correct could be the culprit for a more NW expansion of precip shield as well as IF we could get this low to consolidate into one system further west along the edge of the gulf stream

also looks like the nam continues to under perform with qpf in the initial utilization of this system looking at the 0z , 6z models and there short term 6 hour qpf fixes compared to radar presentation in the south.

still watchin.......

I am going to wait for my inverted trough on tues, 3-5" if the modeled qpf holds...... :snowman:

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

Wow, you guys all give up so easily. What the hell? Waaa waaaa waaaa. It's never going to snow ever again, waaaa. Santa's not coming this year waaaa. Geez, get it together. Act like can do American's and not defeatists. You act as if the models provide a measure of clairvoyance. This last episode should tell you that they are fallible. Snow will come to all. Oh, and save the "but if we don't get snow now it won't happen because January and February will torch." arguement for someone that believes that crap.

Pete--don't take such offense, man. I'm refering to this thread--Dec 19-20 is a non-event. Just trying to keep the board in order and keep the threads current. So, close this down and move forward to the next possibilities (Eric has a thread for that one started).

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

From Noyes on Facebook

FB4cast: Awesome Saturday. Light wind and sun makes mid to upper 30s feel delightful - bit cloudier and tad cooler in the North Country, but absolutely perfect skiing/winter sports weather. Sun fades behind thickening clouds Sunday, and light snow develops afternoon/eve for Eastern New England. Bit steadier Sunday eve/night Southeast MA. Total amounts dusting to 2" Eastern areas, perhaps a few inches Cape/Eastern ME

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cpickett79

cpickett79

Posted
Posted

hpc chucked half a weenie from Bos- PVD Se'ward

AS THE LOW

TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY...SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS IS

EXPECTED TO BE CLIPPED BY THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE STORM WITH

LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW.

i thought the 0z euro looked a bit further west then the 12z . couldn't we just get the southern stream to amplify a bit more from the latent heat release b.s.....and extend precip shield nw.....and/or have that hold back the southern stream a tad longer so the phasing occurs a tad further west. so than ENE cashes in.

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

Pete--don't take such offense, man. I'm refering to this thread--Dec 19-20 is a non-event. Just trying to keep the board in order and keep the threads current. So, close this down and move forward to the next possibilities (Eric has a thread for that one started).

LOL, I was refering to you specifically Mike. Although, you are a repeat offender. I just dislike the general sorry for myself tone of a lot of posts. When I first joined over at Eastern I would read the MA threads occasionally and the general "woe is me we'll never see snow" tone was just pathhetic. I hate seeing our threads morph into that crapfest. We've had a string of misses but we'll get off the schnide soon, it's inevitable. This is New England, snow is a way of life. Our history is replete with examples of big snows and tough Winters. In the end this Winter will provide as well. I'd rather exist in the warm glow of optimism than the cold shadow of pessimism. Think Snow.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
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Posted

HIGHLIGHTS...

*** OCEAN STORM TO TRACK FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO SPARE SOUTHERN NEW

ENGLAND OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL ***

SUN NIGHT AND MON...

00Z MODELS CONTINUE THE THEME FROM THE 12Z/17 CYCLE THAT NORTHERN

AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL REMAIN UNPHASED UNTIL MERGING WELL

EAST OF NEW ENGLAND LATE MON/MON NIGHT. THIS WILL STEER THE

DEVELOPING OCEAN CYCLONE WELL OUT TO SEA WITH ONLY THE NORTHWEST

EDGE OF ITS SNOW SHIELD POSSIBLY SWIPING NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD WITH

SOME LIGHT SNOW.

AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR EAST NORTHEAST MARITIME FLOW INCREASES

ACROSS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET ALONG WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DELTA-T

VALUES OF -8C AT 850MB AND +7C SST EAST OF CAPE COD. THE COMBINATION

SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROF AND

MOIST UNSTABLE NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...OCEAN EFFECT SNOW BANDS

SHOULD DEVELOP AND MAY ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL ACROSS CAPE COD AND

NANTUCKET. THIS MAY YIELD A MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1-2 INCHES

ACROSS THIS AREA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC

SCALE LIFT WILL BE SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL LIMIT ANY

PRECIP TO PROBABLY JUST SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES IF AT ALL.

TUE THROUGH WED...

AS THE OFFSHORE LOW OCCLUDES AND WARM AIR ALOFT WRAPS CYCLONICALLY

BACK INTO NEW ENGLAND...COMMA HEAD/TROWAL SNOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE

ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. THIS MAY YIELD A MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION

ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...PERHAPS ENOUGH TO DECORATE THE SOUTHERN

NEW ENGLAND LANDSCAPE. ACTUALLY THE PROBABILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW

REGIONWIDE IS HIGHER TUE AND WED THAN SUN NGT AND MON! IN ADDITION IF

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK OCEAN EFFECT SNOW

SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET THIS

PERIOD YIELDING ADDITIONAL ACCUMLUATION.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

LOL, I was refering to you specifically Mike. Although, you are a repeat offender. I just dislike the general sorry for myself tone of a lot of posts. When I first joined over at Eastern I would read the MA threads occasionally and the general "woe is me we'll never see snow" tone was just pathhetic. I hate seeing our threads morph into that crapfest. We've had a string of misses but we'll get off the schnide soon, it's inevitable. This is New England, snow is a way of life. Our history is replete with examples of big snows and tough Winters. In the end this Winter will provide as well. I'd rather exist in the warm glow of optimism than the cold shadow of pessimism. Think Snow.

You have missed my change in tone of late, Pete. I found the unfathomable collapse of the models disappointing like everyone else (I actually laughed it was so ridiculous). I know we'll have snow. Will it be coming in increments of 6"+ or increments of 1-2"? We'll see. Probably a bit of both. I have my snowtires now, am prepared, and happy to have winter weather. Even if it is just cold (actually, looks like just a warm jacket will cover it with the highs in the 20's and even warmer tomorrow/Monday).

21.8/18

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cpickett79

cpickett79

Posted
Posted

. I'm refering to this thread--Dec 19-20 is a non-event. Just trying to keep the board in order and keep the threads current. So, close this down and move forward to the next possibilities (Eric has a thread for that one started).

ummm......NAH

yes this looks unlikely to do squat for most of area. However since 2 of 12 0z gfs members still show decent hits for E / SE SNE from this main lp i.e sun/ early mon the thread should of course stay and flourish so weenies have a place to play. this is as Current as things get.

yes we will probably be tracking sn- from kTAN over to plymouth and accumulating maybe on the other side of the bourne bridge an inch or two but it's not over yet.

this is america and abolishing this thread would make you an enemy of democracy mike.....you don't want that do you :scooter:

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cpickett79

cpickett79

Posted
Posted

from that same taunton noaa dicussion<BR><BR>THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW AN OFFSHORE TRACK TO THE SURFACE<BR>LOW. <B>THE SURFACE LOW SEEMS FURTHER SE THAN ONE MIGHT EXPECT WITH<BR>JUST A LOOK AT THE 500 MB PATTERN</B>. THE REASON <B>MAY BE</B> THAT THE BEST<BR>BAROCLINICITY HAS BEEN SUPPRESED RELATIVELY FAR S IN THIS CURRENT<BR>LARGE SCALE PATTERN...AND THERE IS NO REALLY IMPRESSIVE COLD POOL TO<BR>TIGHTEN THE BAROCLINICITY FURTHER NW.<BR><BR>however hadn't hpc been harping on some type of latent heat release stuff or something talking about the difference in water and/or air temps near the SE/MA coast being a sufficient driver of pushing best barcolinity NW.....which would be poorfy forecast by models.<BR><BR>and <IMG class=bbc_emoticon alt=:weenie: src="http://www.americanwx.com/bb/public/style_emoticons/default/hotdog.gif"> is my nameo<BR><BR>i cant find any HPC archive but they were tossing the euro earlier this week and they looked great on wednesday...but trying to find the exact wording of the mechanism.......people were referring to an eddy of the gulf stream current that displaced from the main stream and was just off maryland and such and such<BR><BR>

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

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from that same taunton noaa dicussion

THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW AN OFFSHORE TRACK TO THE SURFACE

LOW. THE SURFACE LOW SEEMS FURTHER SE THAN ONE MIGHT EXPECT WITH

JUST A LOOK AT THE 500 MB PATTERN. THE REASON MAY BE THAT THE BEST

BAROCLINICITY HAS BEEN SUPPRESED RELATIVELY FAR S IN THIS CURRENT

LARGE SCALE PATTERN...AND THERE IS NO REALLY IMPRESSIVE COLD POOL TO

TIGHTEN THE BAROCLINICITY FURTHER NW.

however hadn't hpc been harping on some type of latent heat release stuff or something talking about the difference in water and/or air temps near the SE/MA coast being a sufficient driver of pushing best barcolinity NW.....which would be poorfy forecast by models.

and :weenie: is my nameo

Me thinks it's that southern s/w that pushes the best baroclinic zone further offshore.

But what do I know. And I didn't stay at a Holiday Express last night.

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

Posted
Posted

:weenie:

LOL Hey that was my one line, one complaint, I stayed up like a fool all night last night trying to be positive, now its clear all hopes here in sw ct rest on the xmas storm and Upton agrees. I had a one liner, you were put in solitary confinement for two days due to your meltdown!!:bike:

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted

Pete, it is good to be optimistic, but injecting a bit of realism is prudent as well. BOS could set a futility record for going snowless. Good chance it (the record) won't happen, and I really hope the switch gets flipped somehow - at this point not sure what it would take to get things over the hump towards Epicville. It will snow of course, it has here and I have snow on the ground... sort of... My snowblower sits in the shed and weeps.

Many of us (novices like me, wise folks, mets), were teased and had a big football yanked from us.

We are all Charlie Brown and the models have been Lucy.

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CCPSUSuperstorm2010

CCPSUSuperstorm2010

Posted
Posted

Problem is there is a secondary northern stream disturbance entering into the Rockies. This system is within the progressive flow pushing our trough out to sea more then anticipated. The energy that was off the WA coast last night is now a full blown low pressure system producing its fair share of heavy precipitation across the west.

Models are closer then the 12z runs of yesterday, but are still far enough away to the southeast to not effect anyone with snowfall. Only chance seems to be based upon NE OES event. Let's see if we can get one of those classic long duration LES like events. If so we could have some accumulations, problem is that the delta ts are not intense enough for significant accumulations.

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scoob40

scoob40

Posted
Posted

LOL, I was refering to you specifically Mike. Although, you are a repeat offender. I just dislike the general sorry for myself tone of a lot of posts. When I first joined over at Eastern I would read the MA threads occasionally and the general "woe is me we'll never see snow" tone was just pathhetic. I hate seeing our threads morph into that crapfest. We've had a string of misses but we'll get off the schnide soon, it's inevitable. This is New England, snow is a way of life. Our history is replete with examples of big snows and tough Winters. In the end this Winter will provide as well. I'd rather exist in the warm glow of optimism than the cold shadow of pessimism. Think Snow.

MRG is a big booster of Dusty Springfield !

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