Ice Warrior commander Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/492_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Christmas storm looks great on the GFS It likely will for the next 4 days before something goes wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Clearly something is very wrong with that model because it's ultimately missing the vortmax that spins only slightly faster than my toilet that will be moving across the deep south robbing all of the moisture. We may see some OES. It'll probably end up collapsing the eventual new roof on the Metrodome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 http://www.weatherof...ast/492_100.gif last nights run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 http://www.weatherof...ast/492_100.gif Looks old to me. 72hr should be 00z the 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 It likely will for the next 4 days before something goes wrong. It'll turn into our annual Christmas cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 last nights run? Woops, sorry. I thought the GGEM updated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 It'll turn into our annual Christmas cutter. based on the last comments.....if this was a wall street forum it would be very wise to be bullish on this christmas storm ....when all others have gone bearish. too bad mother nature could screw us all nit....ehhh year long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastBayWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 It'll turn into our annual Christmas cutter. Completely agree. Although this year, at least there won't be a snowpack to wipe away on Christmas Day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 X-Mas event is overall a much much easier event to have happen...the setup is not classic in Canada but there is enough of a vortex present likely to prevent the storm from being able to go too far north....furthermore, phase, no phase, coastal development or no coastal development SOMETHING is likely to fall either way....the coming event on the difficulty scale 1 to 5 is a 5...this one is a 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 X-Mas event is overall a much much easier event to have happen...the setup is not classic in Canada but there is enough of a vortex present likely to prevent the storm from being able to go too far north....furthermore, phase, no phase, coastal development or no coastal development SOMETHING is likely to fall either way....the coming event on the difficulty scale 1 to 5 is a 5...this one is a 2. This year will find a way to prevent that SOMETHING from falling. Can't wait to see the models take away my flurries for Tue-Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 X-Mas event is overall a much much easier event to have happen...the setup is not classic in Canada but there is enough of a vortex present likely to prevent the storm from being able to go too far north....furthermore, phase, no phase, coastal development or no coastal development SOMETHING is likely to fall either way....the coming event on the difficulty scale 1 to 5 is a 5...this one is a 2. It''ll find a way to miss us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 X-Mas event is overall a much much easier event to have happen...the setup is not classic in Canada but there is enough of a vortex present likely to prevent the storm from being able to go too far north....furthermore, phase, no phase, coastal development or no coastal development SOMETHING is likely to fall either way....the coming event on the difficulty scale 1 to 5 is a 5...this one is a 2. And the fact many people here would have some travel issues because of it, or at the very least not be able to enjoy it to the degree they would on any other day, helps our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 wow this thread fell off the face of the earth lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 you guys have no idea how bitter i am. I tracked this storm for almost a week..stayed up till 1am...2am...Euro gave me 6 inches at 12z yesterday and i am getting nothing now. Its embarrassing too as I told friends a potential snowstorm was coming this sunday. Worst Hobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Is the Euro that bad? I would have thought it would correct itself west a good margin to fall into agreement with the rest of modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Is the Euro that bad? I would have thought it would correct itself west a good margin to fall into agreement with the rest of modeling. judging by the cricket sound going on in here I'd guess it's awful. I guess I'll go look, nothing better to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Not seeing 00Z yet on E-wall Where is everyone for the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Not seeing 00Z yet on E-wall Where is everyone for the Euro? I think 95% of the SNE posters may have legitimately killed themselves... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 The ECM gives Boston about .5" QPF with a Norlun event Day 5, but the main storm is well offshore. Christmas Day storm hits the Midwest hard, starts to minor out over Missouri, but then a PV phase occurs....could be interesting to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 The ECM gives Boston about .5" QPF with a Norlun event Day 5, but the main storm is well offshore. Christmas Day storm hits the Midwest hard, starts to minor out over Missouri, but then a PV phase occurs....could be interesting to follow. Thanks Nate. What is qpf back to ORH area ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Thanks Nate. What is qpf back to ORH area ? Heavy heavy weenies in my mouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I just saw it myself and Main Low is well Offshore. Hopes pinned on inverted trough. However, they are fickle as H*ll to place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 00z EC inv trof QPF 0.50" line...EFK-LCI-ASH-ORH-TAN 0.25" line...PBG-VSF-BAF-BDL-GON 0.10" line...ALB-DXR-BDR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Christmas Day storm hits the Midwest hard, starts to minor out over Missouri, but then a PV phase occurs....could be interesting to follow. I think it was SnowGoose that said it, and I agree, that it's going to be easier to get a biggie out of that system rather than this one. There won't be as many needles to thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I think it was SnowGoose that said it, and I agree, that it's going to be easier to get a biggie out of that system rather than this one. There won't be as many needles to thread. I'm confused as to why the GEM/Euro seem to shear out the X-Mas system a bit too much as it comes east...not so sure in that setup it would shear out that severely...of course the confluence may not necessarily be the reason the models are weakening it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I doubt the X-mas storm works out. Euro doesn;'t have it..Not that that means much anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Should this thread go the way of the Bay City Rollers? Not sure we need a 'threat thread' yet for next week, and Eric's already commenced a thread to deal with anything that might happen between now and then, plus we have the general obs thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Should this thread go the way of the Bay City Rollers? Not sure we need a 'threat thread' yet for next week, and Eric's already commenced a thread to deal with anything that might happen between now and then, plus we have the general obs thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I doubt the X-mas storm works out. Euro doesn;'t have it..Not that that means much anymore When the EURO's soloution blows, it means a ton. Just like the last cutter....it locked on to an inside runner at day 7 and I knew it was over, but in this instance, it showed a blizzard at day 3 and it wasn't close enough in. Xmas threat is a joke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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