Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 hot wings, reese's pb cups, yellow cake with chocolate frosting...got the necessities covered... Need lots of carbs for all the shoveling stock up on macaroni with meatballs, lasagna, Italian bread and homemade hot sausage pizza. I would love to be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I think the Euro will be huge tonight. Always switches up on the 00z runs. We had a couple of mammoth hits, couple of OTS, now back to the blizzards Just when you thought it was safe, it'll be back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastBayWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Pattern recognition and persistence >>> Model guidance We have a long way to go until the current computer models can truly predict East coast bombogensis accurately. A winter of lakes cutters followed by suppressed OTS tracks is becoming more and more likely. Throw in the occasional retrograding North Atlantic system, and we may finish a bit under average. A foot of snow cover over the NE corridor on Monday would have had the potential to modify the inevitable but an early snowcover over NC and VA will be useless for us here in New England. This will be an Upper Midwest and Lakes winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Anything up? Just back from my daughter's dance recital. Great show. Went for Indian food at this great little Central Sq place. Nice to have a break. Getting tired of bare ground but it is what it is. Heavy heavy reah in the AM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 That was an interesting few days. Once in a lifetime I'm afraid. I remember that battle royal in the chat with DT which we laugh about now. Larry C too. That wasn't so much that a storm did a 180, models were focused on the wrong system s/w all along. NAM picked up on the developments first, then slowly the others came into line but this was all inside of 36-42 hours. Actually if you recall...you and Brian were calling it, both getting slapped around by the mets and others. Everyone went to bed (like now way too late...). Forecast the night before the event (5PM package) was nada. People in DC woke up to a huge snowstorm. Dewey Walston, may he RIP, wrote some great AFDs for LWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Pattern recognition and persistence >>> Model guidance We have a long way to go until the current computer models can truly predict East coast bombogensis accurately. A winter of lakes cutters followed by suppressed OTS tracks is becoming more and more likely. Throw in the occasional retrograding North Atlantic system, and we may finish a bit under average. A foot of snow cover over the NE corridor on Monday would have had the potential to modify the inevitable but an early snowcover over NC and VA will be useless for us here in New England. This will be an Upper Midwest and Lakes winter.... You should work for NWS, there is no better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Heavy heavy reah in the AM? Nah. Eat it all the time. Only good places. Hey I was in Mexico for a week and didn't get it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 looks like gfs will get some light snows into se ne, the trend has been ever so subtle west tonight, I think the trend continues as models consolidate into one lp theme, 300-700mb continues to improve as well, this was damn close. Still think a light snowfall is possible for all of sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Geez, the GFS made a good bump NW too. It's darn close now for Cape Cod. I realize for many it's over but it's looking interesting to me down here. By Sunday night you'll have mixing issues and the interior will get thumped.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Crazy Uncle UKIE also adjusted west significantly but not enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 looks like gfs will get some light snows into se ne, the trend has been ever so subtle west tonight, I think the trend continues as models consolidate into one lp theme, 300-700mb continues to improve as well, this was damn close. Still think a light snowfall is possible for all of sne. Yup, I concur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 By Sunday night you'll have mixing issues and the interior will get thumped.lol I actually deleted that post. I'm having a lot of trouble today with twister showing old pages/wrong pages. Will clear everything tonight and see how it goes. It was showing a run from a few days ago, there's really not much movement. It's a close scrape but we're screwed so long as we have that disjointed low early. Weathafella, is Drag still at taunton? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I actually deleted that post. I'm having a lot of trouble today with twister showing old pages/wrong pages. Will clear everything tonight and see how it goes. It was showing a run from a few days ago, there's really not much movement. It's a close scrape but we're screwed so long as we have that disjointed low early. Weathafella, is Drag still at taunton? Psyche. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I actually deleted that post. I'm having a lot of trouble today with twister showing old pages/wrong pages. Will clear everything tonight and see how it goes. It was showing a run from a few days ago, there's really not much movement. It's a close scrape but we're screwed so long as we have that disjointed low early. Weathafella, is Drag still at taunton? Mt holly for our loss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Yup, I concur. What I think is most likely right now is that the QPF bombs to the SE vanish and we see a pretty impressive comma head that still misses (us). If we could just get things north a little faster, 100 miles would do Hey at least it didnt keep going east, it is something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 No doubt the fish are going to get dumped on. Surprising that people gave up so easy. Being so late in the game odds of a reversal is = / <1% I would give a zero chance but until the energy moves of the playing field... So friggin close. Always next weekend and we'll do this all over again. Oh joy, same posters with the same posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 I actually deleted that post. I'm having a lot of trouble today with twister showing old pages/wrong pages. Will clear everything tonight and see how it goes. It was showing a run from a few days ago, there's really not much movement. It's a close scrape but we're screwed so long as we have that disjointed low early. Weathafella, is Drag still at taunton? He moved for a lady and is now at Mt Holly working with rainshadow and others. That's also a great office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Still a lot of convective crap going on to the southeast of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 He moved for a lady and is now at Mt Holly working with rainshadow and others. That's also a great office. Ah, I gotcha....read that first that he gave up his slot for a lady which tells you how highly I think of him. You mean he moved to be closer to an important someone. I'm betting he looked at an experimental 10 year model that showed no snow and got out of dodge. Still a lot of convective crap going on to the southeast of the low. It's a significant problem for those near the low. Note the northern low postion isn't changing run to run. What those maxes are probably doing is underplaying the amount of precip they'll see in NC/VA/SE DELMA where they are currently forecast to get something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Well....I"m starting to look forward to my FL conference next month. I'm wintered out and it hasn't really happened here yet outside of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Well....I"m starting to look forward to my FL conference next month. I'm wintered out and it hasn't really happened here yet outside of cold. I just cannot believe in a different overall pattern from last year we are getting the same ****e. Piddly dink features that cause lows to congeal way too far out to sea/take too long to get going until they are already due south of us. Garbage! At least it's still close....and it's stopped going east. How close is crazy ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Hopefully the inverted trough can drop an inch or two on Tues night...I'd at least like to make sure we get a white Christmas. Haven't had a green one since 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Crazy Uncle UKIE also adjusted west significantly but not enough. Ukie pinches a portion of the cutoff further SW - which is at least different than the NAM/GFS - but the surface result is basically unchanged because it escapes so far east before capture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Geez what an impressive storm. Going to be windy for a bit. Not sure I've ever seen a storm effect such a huge area like that one up NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 300-700mb continues to improve as well Yeah even at 12z 300-700mb looked so much better than 850 and the surface. Not that it's gonna be vertically stacked, but the vorticity maxes looked to be literally hundreds of miles apart at the different levels. I could still well see this being a 1-3" east of the CT/RI border, and 3-6" for the cape and islands. Its going to take a major reversal for me to see anything at all, and I'd rather keep my 7T" and a 0.0" than a worthless .8" or something. Weenie or not though, I still am not willing to throw in the towel altogether, but I do expect Ivan Drago Euro come put me down like Apollo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Christmas storm looks great on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Yeah even at 12z 300-700mb looked so much better than 850 and the surface. Not that it's gonna be vertically stacked, but the vorticity maxes looked to be literally hundreds of miles apart at the different levels. I could still well see this being a 1-3" east of the CT/RI border, and 3-6" for the cape and islands. Its going to take a major reversal for me to see anything at all, and I'd rather keep my 7T" and a 0.0" than a worthless .8" or something. Weenie or not though, I still am not willing to throw in the towel altogether, but I do expect Ivan Drago Euro come put me down like Apollo. I agree. Just worth monitoring and let's face it the death blow one way or the other will be complete in the next 12 hours. We'll see a major move at 6z I think, maybe 12z either towards a clean cut miss or it will drift west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Christmas storm looks great on the GFS It does....PV dropping in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Christmas storm looks great on the GFS ... yeah right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 It does....PV dropping in. Clearly something is very wrong with that model because it's ultimately missing the vortmax that spins only slightly faster than my toilet that will be moving across the deep south robbing all of the moisture. We may see some OES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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