OSUmetstud Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 That s/w across the lower OH valley is a little further north. I don't think this run will do it. too much southern energy running out ahead of the Pac NW energy....need the PAC NW energy to speed up or the southern shortwave to slow down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 interesting trends. hvy hvy baby boy. Congrats Phil! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 too much southern energy running out ahead of the Pac NW energy....need the PAC NW energy to speed up or the southern shortwave to slow down. Yeah I wish that s/w would slow down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Congrats man! Awesome. thanks dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 interesting trends. hvy hvy baby boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 burbank Yesterday morning, I was dumfounded by the reversal in the Euro’s solution. Was it a signal that this respected model had really latched onto some real changes in the atmosphere? Then, when most of the other computer models jumped on the bandwagon at midday, it was really nauseating. I failed to understand why there was a trend toward rapid intensification near the coast but the overwhelming data dictated that acceptance was more warranted. It proves the point that forecasting many storms is fraught with speculation outside of 48 hours of occurrence. Confidence usually ramps up significantly in most but not all cases within 48 hours of the event. The atmosphere is fluid and complex and minute changes in the streams of air can create havoc. The latest episode in thiscontinuing saga features the same cast of characters but the previous plot applies now. In other words. a glancing blow makes more sense to me regarding this upcoming storm. As I have reiterated through the entire week, bombogenesis is inevitable but the precise time and place of initialization and the maturation is paramount to accurately predicting the outcome for any particular area. So I’m backing off and postulating a storm track farther offshore based upon the idea that phasing of the northern and southern streams does not happen quickly enough near the coast. This process is delayed and will unfold over the Atlantic. Consequently, a massive potent storm will materialize out over the ocean and it is expected to expand as it explodes resulting in strengthening north-northwesterly winds to perhaps gale force the first half of the week. Additionally, after the initial plume of precipitation brushes southeastern Massachusetts Sunday evening into early Monday, backlashing snows of mainly light to possibly moderate intensity may circulate back into the area late Monday through Tuesday and perhaps early Wednesday. My early thinking is that the front end of the storm could deliver a dusting up to 2 inches of snow from the western suburbs into Boston with a few inches possible over southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod where a mix is possible for a spell near the relatively mild ocean in the middle 40s. On the back end of the storm as it backs in on us, a few more inches of snow could fall for many of us making it a white Christmas. With all of this said, it still bears watching because any slight reconfiguration of the upper level wind field can produce a remarkably different outcome. In the meantime, we’ve got 2 pleasantly, bright sunny days ahead of us with highs today and tomorrow in the range of 34-38 with a breeze under 10 mph most of the time. Radiational cooling dropped the temperatures to the upper single numbers to middle teens this morning and they will retreat to the middle teens to lower 20s tonight. On Sunday, as a maritime low-level flow becomes established, some showers of mixed snow and rain may develop over the coastal plain. The envelope of mostly snow from the storm will stream up over southeastern New England late in the day through the evening into early Monday. As the Pats host the Packers Sunday evening, there could be some snow showers or a bit of light snow with temperatures near 30-32 degrees with a bit of a breeze. Presently, I am not expecting a real Snow Bowl there. Once the potential backlash snows and winds subside late Wednesday, it will turn sunnier with near seasonable highs of the upper 30s to 40 degrees on Thursday and Christmas Eve. Another threatening storm close to Christmas can only be conjecture at this point in time. Once I have digested fresh data later this morning through midday, I will post my midday musings early this afternoon. Make it a great day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 thanks dude. WOW congrats, only fitting that the infant weenie be christened with a cape crusher, congrats and hope you get buried with snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Northern s/w needs to get up off it's fat ass and catch up to the southern s/w to capture this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yeah I wish that s/w would slow down. It's but one model but it just blew up the snowstorm. Looked deflating to me at even 12 hours...too fast and flat and the s/w up here keeps moisture from getting close in time on the NAM. I still hope for a good hit of QPF in SE NE but ouch. Phil congrats, this your first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 interesting trends. hvy hvy baby boy. congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 interesting trends. hvy hvy baby boy. Congrats brother! Lets dig you out of some snow this weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Kind of ironic that we were worried about the southern stream energy not being there a couple days ago and now it may be the killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Congrats again.!!! Wasn't sure if you had posted it last nite or not Congrats Phil! thanks...long night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 thanks dude. Congrats! just found out I'm gonna be a daddy too! Hope it's a boy also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 interesting trends. hvy hvy baby boy. Excellent! Congrats! The little lady and I (getting bigger by the day) are expecting in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 interesting trends. hvy hvy baby boy. I'm a bit late to the party but congratulations! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Kind of ironic that we were worried about the southern stream energy not being there a couple days ago and now it may be the killer. Too fast or too flat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well the guidance is universal. We're delayed for sure and it remains to be seen whether all or some of us are not denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 RIP mecs lol.. what a joke Cut the crap posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Too fast or too flat? too fast is the larger problem IMO. The main energy is coming from the Pacific Northwest...but the what's left of southern shortwave has to be further west than where it's modeled at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 too fast is the larger problem IMO. The main energy is coming from the Pacific Northwest...but the what's left of southern shortwave has to be further west than where it's modeled at the moment. Gotcha'. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Nam is effed up with 2 lows still.. it actually looks faster with the s/w at 54hr.. makes no sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 interesting trends. hvy hvy baby boy. Congratulations Is he a weenie? I hope everything is well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 interesting trends. hvy hvy baby boy. Awesome---congratulations!!!! You wouldn't have been able to pay attention to a blizzard anyway! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Congrats Phil and tavwtby. "It's a baaaaby" Cool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Nam is effed up with 2 lows still.. it actually looks faster with the s/w at 54hr.. makes no sense Does this end up being a strung out solution in the end? I think tonight's models are the important runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Congratulations Phil and tavwtby. enjoy every second! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Excellent! Congrats! The little lady and I (getting bigger by the day) are expecting in May. Awesome, Chris. It's a weenie-boom! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Does this end up being a strung out solution in the end? I think tonight's models are the important runs. This was the run several well respected mets said mattered and I 100% agree. I think SE NE is still in the line of fire, but hopes are dwindling to the west of Bos to PVD. This is the NAM, until we see others with a similar whiff....not to worry but if this whole suite goes east forget-a-bout-it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Awesome, Chris. It's a weenie-boom! Thanks, the key will be to get them wx watching right from the start! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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