Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

December 19th-20 Storm Thread III


Baroclinic Zone

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I'm back, I was here for the NAM and GFS earlier this morning, but have been out all day since then. I actually was productive today not worrying too much about the 18z models!!!

Smart man, Will! Can't rely on them lately.

You weren't glued to the models like me to figure out how thick the cirrus shield would be?

:lmao: :lmao: Yeah, right...

--Turtle ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm back, I was here for the NAM and GFS earlier this morning, but have been out all day since then. I actually was productive today not worrying too much about the 18z models!!!

After being attached to a computer for a few days, it always amazes me what I can accomplish in that time :lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just loaded norad santa tracker for the kids, hopefully mother nature will deliver a festivus miracle and put down a coating to a couple inches over the next few days, then deliver the goods on xmas eve and day, gotta have faith, its a cruel hobby, but nothing beats it, chin up!

I believe things will tick west through 18z tomorrow as the vortathon gets sorted out off the east coast, not the big hit, but enough to make for a white xmas.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here is where winter is:

From www.midwestradio.ie in the Roscommon/Mayo area of Ireland. I was there visiting family last May and it was 80-85F. :) , but they said they had snow on the ground for a long timer last Winter also.

Gardai warn of very dangerous driving conditions as snowfall continues

Friday, 17 December 2010 18:11 GARDAI ARE WARNING MOTORISTS OF DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AS FURTHER SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING HAS FURTHER IMPACTED ON THE ROAD CONDITIONS.

GARDAI IN BALLINA SAY IT IS SNOWING AGAIN MAKING CONDITIONS DIFFICULT. IN CASTLEBAR THE N5 ROAD IS DANGEROUS AS IS THE PONTOON ROAD AND IT IS SNOWING AGAIN THIS EVENING.

THE GARDAI IN WESTPORT SAY THE N5 BETWEEN CASTLEBAR AND WESTPORT IS TREACHEROUS THIS EVENING AND SHOULD ONLY BE TRAVELLED ON IF NECESSARY.

IN CLAREMORRIS GARDAI SAY THEY ARE ADVISING MOTORISTS TO AVOID THE SLIP ROAD ONTO THE N17 ON THE BALLYHAUNIS ROAD AS IT IS TREACHEROUS. THE ROAD AT RUSHBROOK IS ALSO DANGEROUS.

IN SWINFORD CARE IS ADVISED ACROSS THE AREA AS MOST ROADS ARE VERY DANGEROUS WITH SNOWFALL.

GARDAI SAY THE CASTLEREA TO CASTLEPLUNKETT ROAD IS IMPASSABLE THIS EVENING, WHILE THE CASTLEREA TO FRENCHPARK ROAD IS ALSO TREACHEROUS.

THE BOYLE TO FRENCHPARK ROAD IS ALSO IMPASSABLE WHILE THE MAIN ROADS AROUND BOYLE ARE ALSO VERY DANGEROUS.

IN ROSCOMMON GARDAI SAY ROADS ACROSS THE AREA ARE VERY DANGEROUS AND ARE ADVISING AGAINST UNECESSARY JOURNEYS.

IN BALLYMOTE CONDITIONS ARE DESCRIBED AS VERY POOR BY GARDAI.

IN TUAM GARDAI SAY THE MAIN N17 ROAD IS IN A GOOD CONDITION BUT AGAIN CAUTION SHOULD BE EXERCISED ON SIDE ROADS.

AND THE WORD FROM MET EIREANN ON ANY IMPROVEMENT IS NOT GOOD EITHER.

JOHN EAGLETON SAYS THAT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND ARTIC CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH US UNTIL AT LEAST CHRISTMAS EVE.

Well he did lock in a lot of 90+ at BDL last Summer....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

After being attached to a computer for a few days, it always amazes me what I can accomplish in that time :lol:

Yeah it amazes me too.

I basically told myself I was going to get some stuff done and not worry what the Euro said or 18z suite said....whenever I get back I get back. I was quite productive doing that.

That said, we still may have something to track, but it would be for Tuesday/Wednesday. If we could get a few inches to at least set the stage to give us a white Christmas, that wouldn't be a bad consolation prize.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just loaded norad santa tracker for the kids, hopefully mother nature will deliver a festivus miracle and put down a coating to a couple inches over the next few days, then deliver the goods on xmas eve and day, gotta have faith, its a cruel hobby, but nothing beats it, chin up!

I believe things will tick west through 18z tomorrow as the vortathon gets sorted out off the east coast, not the big hit, but enough to make for a white xmas.

Try www.portablenorthpole.tv It will make you believe :snowman:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah it amazes me too.

I basically told myself I was going to get some stuff done and not worry what the Euro said or 18z suite said....whenever I get back I get back. I was quite productive doing that.

That said, we still may have something to track, but it would be for Tuesday/Wednesday. If we could get a few inches to at least set the stage to give us a white Christmas, that wouldn't be a bad consolation prize.

I agree...in terms of getting a couple inches here for Christmas would be nice. I joked with my wife last week, that if only the dusting in our yard would last one more week, we'd have a white xmas...now I'm hoping that joke will become a reality.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I crown you young king! Good call (or so it seems...)

Yeah I was always on the bandwagon for an easterly track with the weekend storm; when I realized I had to squint to see the shortwave in question coming out of a zonal flow, I figured it probably was going to be a weaker/east solution. We don't have a lot of amplification from the Pacific side and the PV just wasn't quite in the right position to make a full phase, so we were talking about a complex timing issue that would probably be resolved to the east. It also seems like the last few runs caught onto some energy hanging out near Florida that dampens the baroclinic zone east. I wouldn't call this storm a victory for anyone though I'm glad I remained more conservative.

are you on board?

I was just posting, half sarcastically, what the model output shows for the Christmas storm; I have no faith in the 18z GFS in the long range, and we've seen how volatile the pattern is so I wouldn't want to make too much analysis right now. 12z ECM has mostly cold/dry conditions for December 25th, so we'll have to see if we get further consensus about a threat. We're still holding onto the -NAO and below average temperatures although I could see the Plains storm cutting off too early and tracking to our west if we don't have the perfect blocking upstream. The Pacific flow is active and the PNA looks to be neutralizing, but we don't have a blockbuster set-up on the Pacific end by any means.

Here is where winter is:

Yeah, the UK is getting hammered by the polar low descending from eastern Greenland. It was a 498dm polar low at its inception so we're talking about a very potent system with 850s <-10C, which is bitterly cold for England/Ireland. Heavy snow has also been falling in Germany, and I saw London had racked up a few inches. Amazing to think that places that generally see little snowfall in a winter (Dublin, London) have had way more than normally snowy places like ORH.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah I was always on the bandwagon for an easterly track with the weekend storm; when I realized I had to squint to see the shortwave in question coming out of a zonal flow, I figured it probably was going to be a weaker/east solution. We don't have a lot of amplification from the Pacific side and the PV just wasn't quite in the right position to make a full phase, so we were talking about a complex timing issue that would probably be resolved to the east. It also seems like the last few runs caught onto some energy hanging out near Florida that dampens the baroclinic zone east. I wouldn't call this storm a victory for anyone though I'm glad I remained more conservative.

I was just posting, half sarcastically, what the model output shows for the Christmas storm; I have no faith in the 18z GFS in the long range, and we've seen how volatile the pattern is so I wouldn't want to make too much analysis right now. 12z ECM has mostly cold/dry conditions for December 25th, so we'll have to see if we get further consensus about a threat. We're still holding onto the -NAO and below average temperatures although I could see the Plains storm cutting off too early and tracking to our west if we don't have the perfect blocking upstream. The Pacific flow is active and the PNA looks to be neutralizing, but we don't have a blockbuster set-up on the Pacific end by any means.

cool

thanks for your thoughts , sounds like more of the same which is nothing new i guess

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...