HoarfrostHubb Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Will Boston get measurable to break the streak on Sunday? Still something to shoot for...296 days by then (I think) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I doubt it makes a difference for the interior, but the vort is digging much better this run through the SE. Congrats Bahamas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I can't believe the temerity of the GFS model, trying to taunt people into thinking there's hope hahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Congrats Bahamas Yeah...it's just not going to make a difference. Like Ryan said...let's get this low the hell out of here in hope we can get a surprise from the next system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Is Ray ok? I'm worried... maybe he is taking a nap for 2 weeks and will wake to a giant white reality in 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 WTH anyone else seeing yesterdays data on 18z for twister? Or is it a local problem? I keep seeing yesterdays 18z when I'm asking for todays. cache clear did the trick. I think the GFS looks better, esp considering what is probably hints of blatant convective issues in all models way out east. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_slp_048l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I can't believe the temerity of the GFS model, trying to taunt people into thinking there's hope hahahaha remove what is probably feedback from the convection offshore on several of the models and what we have is a close but impressive miss versus the viagra needing limp wide right miss. I am now pretty convinced the spurious low placement way out near Bermuda is one of the issues here. It has the hallmarks of what has been feedback in recent years right under speedmaxes. We've seen this many times in the last 15 months. Thats the mother of all QPF bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yeah...it's just not going to make a difference. Like Ryan said...let's get this low the hell out of here in hope we can get a surprise from the next system. Some of the GFS ensemble members are real interesting. A trowal kind of setup aided by a diving clipper that starts to redevelop... aided by the forcing from the trowal kind of setup. It is far fetched but it's all we have to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 We are only in the 3rd week of meteorological winter - no need to panic. I'm pretty sure no location from Boston to the Berkshires has ever had a snowless winter. There's a first time for everything... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 remove what is probably feedback from the convection offshore on several of the models and what we have is a close but impressive miss versus the viagra needing limp wide right miss. I am now pretty convinced the spurious low placement way out near Bermuda is one of the issues here. It has the hallmarks of what has been feedback in recent years right under speedmaxes. We've seen this many times in the last 15 months. Thats the mother of all QPF bombs. Love the avatar... Lots of rain/snow for the sea turtles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I can't believe the temerity of the GFS model, trying to taunt people into thinking there's hope hahahaha Looks the same to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 With tear in my eyes and a quivering upper lip, I divulged the bad Euro news... then I gave them their progress reports - double whammy! (most were great) I told them all how computers are evil and they lie and how the market for chairs, ropes, and structural lumber have skyrocketed in the last 12 hours and there is no Santa Claus and we will all be working digging ditches in a snowless wasteland of humidity and torches... They were cool since they had their phones... Seriously...there isn't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 What if it is feedback that's putting the low so far out SE? What happens then if it comes back 100-200 miles? Probably only a close brush for coastal areas....but pretty convinced this is what the SREF is hinting at too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 What if it is feedback that's putting the low so far out SE? What happens then if it comes back 100-200 miles? Probably only a close brush for coastal areas....but pretty convinced this is what the SREF is hinting at too. Yeah I wouldn't be shocked if we tick back west for an advisory event on the Cape and in your area. I think game is pretty much over for most places.. probably even BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Looks the same to me. It's actually worse but down south gets clobbered now. Same trend as last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheetah440 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Love the avatar... Lots of rain/snow for the sea turtles pretty good run for Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Some of the GFS ensemble members are real interesting. A trowal kind of setup aided by a diving clipper that starts to redevelop... aided by the forcing from the trowal kind of setup. It is far fetched but it's all we have to look at. Seems like only 2 or 3 members are showing something interesting. Maybe that's good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 wow. Just about every teacher today mentioned snow day possible on Monday. Of course I knew about 00z and 6z and I knew the whole time it wasn't a good chance. Then I saw the 12z runs and now I'm hoping for some flurries. At this point that 12/22 storm is my last chance as I'll be in Florida from xmas to the 1st. So expect the best period of winter during that time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Get rid of the NY forum style threads, part || crap, we need to take back the forum with energy and weenieism. The JUJU on SNE changed when sub forums were initiated. LOL, well trying anything here to change the luck. I am on Rays bus now , absolute great setup torn to shreds by the cosmic dildo. Good thing man created snowmaking. OK so now we can remember from here on out several rules. Models are useless until 60 hours out Never ever trust any Ensemble run Four days is an eternity in cybermodel world Garbage in garbage out Socks is the best non met in the world East bay weather is right for all the wrong reasons Ryan would rather see KeV and Ray meltdown than see a blockbuster All the verbage in the world means squat Keep an eye on Christmas night modeling looks great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Clippers gets demolished on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 GFS killing off the retro snows too. We'll see tonight. 0z is it for me, 90% off the bus even down here but at least its worth a look. Thought the movement on the 18z inside of 48 hours was decent but its not enough. Looks very much like a storm we watch on radar pass to our SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Seems like the whole trough is going to have to realign somewhat for any clipper to ever affect us. The flow just takes them toward the Central Appalachians and VA, etc. Then they would have to deepen and go negative enough to get us, but this upcoming one is having a hard time even throwing snow back to Cape Cod. All we can hope is things shift enough so the one next week (or at least the Xmas weekend impulse) have a chance. Otherwise we are left with retro hopes (mainly a NNE threat) I think or maybe inverted troughs. Clippers gets demolished on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Get rid of the NY forum style threads, part || crap, we need to take back the forum with energy and weenieism. The JUJU on SNE changed when sub forums were initiated. LOL, well trying anything here to change the luck. I am on Rays bus now , absolute great setup torn to shreds by the cosmic dildo. Good thing man created snowmaking. OK so now we can remember from here on out several rules. Models are useless until 60 hours out Never ever trust any Ensemble run Four days is an eternity in cybermodel world Garbage in garbage out Socks is the best non met in the world East bay weather is right for all the wrong reasons Ryan would rather see KeV and Ray meltdown than see a blockbuster All the verbage in the world means squat Keep an eye on Christmas night modeling looks great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 models cant even get stuff right thats happening now the 21z ruc doesnt even show precip in most of oklahoma..and its raining pretty good looking at the radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Heavy heavy Christmas D8 snow on the 18z GFS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 We've talked about the QPF bombs. I'm sure that's what we are seeing on many of the models out over the water. It won't change that the low is too far out to sea. But I do think it may lead to a much more excruciating miss! Note the panel on the left has the bomb, the right doesnt SW of the Lakes. If I'm right we'll see a more robust shield to the north but still not close enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 GFS killing off the retro snows too. Actually I thought the inv trof looked somewhat decent for ENE. It got a little enhancement from the clipper. Xmas day potential is still there this run, but nada on the 12z EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Merry Christmas on the GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Heavy snow for most of New England, NYC metro, and much of the Mid Atlantic at 204:: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doug1991 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Merry Christmas on the GFS! wouldnt that be a kick to the nuts if it went OTS or was a lake runner. (bill paxton voice) Game over man, game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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