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December 19th-20 Storm Thread III


Baroclinic Zone

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WTH anyone else seeing yesterdays data on 18z for twister? Or is it a local problem? I keep seeing yesterdays 18z when I'm asking for todays.

cache clear did the trick.

I think the GFS looks better, esp considering what is probably hints of blatant convective issues in all models way out east.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_slp_048l.gif

gfs_slp_048l.gif

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I can't believe the temerity of the GFS model, trying to taunt people into thinking there's hope hahahaha

remove what is probably feedback from the convection offshore on several of the models and what we have is a close but impressive miss versus the viagra needing limp wide right miss. I am now pretty convinced the spurious low placement way out near Bermuda is one of the issues here.

It has the hallmarks of what has been feedback in recent years right under speedmaxes. We've seen this many times in the last 15 months.

Thats the mother of all QPF bombs.

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Yeah...it's just not going to make a difference. Like Ryan said...let's get this low the hell out of here in hope we can get a surprise from the next system.

Some of the GFS ensemble members are real interesting. A trowal kind of setup aided by a diving clipper that starts to redevelop... aided by the forcing from the trowal kind of setup. It is far fetched but it's all we have to look at.

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remove what is probably feedback from the convection offshore on several of the models and what we have is a close but impressive miss versus the viagra needing limp wide right miss. I am now pretty convinced the spurious low placement way out near Bermuda is one of the issues here.

It has the hallmarks of what has been feedback in recent years right under speedmaxes. We've seen this many times in the last 15 months.

Thats the mother of all QPF bombs.

Love the avatar...

Lots of rain/snow for the sea turtles

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With tear in my eyes and a quivering upper lip, I divulged the bad Euro news... then I gave them their progress reports - double whammy! (most were great)

I told them all how computers are evil and they lie and how the market for chairs, ropes, and structural lumber have skyrocketed in the last 12 hours and there is no Santa Claus and we will all be working digging ditches in a snowless wasteland of humidity and torches...

They were cool since they had their phones...

Seriously...there isn't?

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sref_bsp_060s.gif

What if it is feedback that's putting the low so far out SE? What happens then if it comes back 100-200 miles? Probably only a close brush for coastal areas....but pretty convinced this is what the SREF is hinting at too.

Yeah I wouldn't be shocked if we tick back west for an advisory event on the Cape and in your area. I think game is pretty much over for most places.. probably even BOS.

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Some of the GFS ensemble members are real interesting. A trowal kind of setup aided by a diving clipper that starts to redevelop... aided by the forcing from the trowal kind of setup. It is far fetched but it's all we have to look at.

Seems like only 2 or 3 members are showing something interesting. Maybe that's good...:lol:

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wow. Just about every teacher today mentioned snow day possible on Monday. Of course I knew about 00z and 6z and I knew the whole time it wasn't a good chance. Then I saw the 12z runs and now I'm hoping for some flurries. At this point that 12/22 storm is my last chance as I'll be in Florida from xmas to the 1st. So expect the best period of winter during that time

:axe:

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Get rid of the NY forum style threads, part || crap, we need to take back the forum with energy and weenieism. The JUJU on SNE changed when sub forums were initiated. LOL, well trying anything here to change the luck. I am on Rays bus now , absolute great setup torn to shreds by the cosmic dildo. Good thing man created snowmaking. OK so now we can remember from here on out several rules.

Models are useless until 60 hours out

Never ever trust any Ensemble run

Four days is an eternity in cybermodel world

Garbage in garbage out

Socks is the best non met in the world

East bay weather is right for all the wrong reasons

Ryan would rather see KeV and Ray meltdown than see a blockbuster

All the verbage in the world means squat

Keep an eye on Christmas night modeling looks great!

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Seems like the whole trough is going to have to realign somewhat for any clipper to ever affect us. The flow just takes them toward the Central Appalachians and VA, etc. Then they would have to deepen and go negative enough to get us, but this upcoming one is having a hard time even throwing snow back to Cape Cod. All we can hope is things shift enough so the one next week (or at least the Xmas weekend impulse) have a chance.

Otherwise we are left with retro hopes (mainly a NNE threat) I think or maybe inverted troughs.

Clippers gets demolished on this run.

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Get rid of the NY forum style threads, part || crap, we need to take back the forum with energy and weenieism. The JUJU on SNE changed when sub forums were initiated. LOL, well trying anything here to change the luck. I am on Rays bus now , absolute great setup torn to shreds by the cosmic dildo. Good thing man created snowmaking. OK so now we can remember from here on out several rules.

Models are useless until 60 hours out

Never ever trust any Ensemble run

Four days is an eternity in cybermodel world

Garbage in garbage out

Socks is the best non met in the world

East bay weather is right for all the wrong reasons

Ryan would rather see KeV and Ray meltdown than see a blockbuster

All the verbage in the world means squat

Keep an eye on Christmas night modeling looks great!

:lol:

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We've talked about the QPF bombs. I'm sure that's what we are seeing on many of the models out over the water. It won't change that the low is too far out to sea. But I do think it may lead to a much more excruciating miss!

Note the panel on the left has the bomb, the right doesnt SW of the Lakes. If I'm right we'll see a more robust shield to the north but still not close enough.

mrfwithwithout2.gif

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