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December 19th-20 Storm Thread III


Baroclinic Zone

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I've had a few tenths, but it may as well be 0. I believe ORH still has had no measurable too.

At this point, I think we just have to marvel at how hard it is to shut out these areas so far in December given the pattern we have. This is a KU of suck.

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Hang your weenies on this though I bet Ryan doesn't like the chances

STILL APPEARS WE COULD SEE A SECOND ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS

PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE

OFFSHORE LOW OCCLUDES AND WARM AIR ALOFT WRAPS CYCLONICALLY BACK

INTO NEW ENGLAND IN THE FORM OF COMMA HEAD/TROWAL SNOWS. THIS

WOULD SUPPORT A LONG-DURATION OF OCCASIONAL SNOW...POSSIBLY

MIXED WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST.

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Hang your weenies on this though I bet Ryan doesn't like the chances

STILL APPEARS WE COULD SEE A SECOND ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS

PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE

OFFSHORE LOW OCCLUDES AND WARM AIR ALOFT WRAPS CYCLONICALLY BACK

INTO NEW ENGLAND IN THE FORM OF COMMA HEAD/TROWAL SNOWS. THIS

WOULD SUPPORT A LONG-DURATION OF OCCASIONAL SNOW...POSSIBLY

MIXED WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST.

Trowal venereal disease oozing from the loins of the Atlantic. As we thought.

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Hang your weenies on this though I bet Ryan doesn't like the chances

STILL APPEARS WE COULD SEE A SECOND ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS

PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE

OFFSHORE LOW OCCLUDES AND WARM AIR ALOFT WRAPS CYCLONICALLY BACK

INTO NEW ENGLAND IN THE FORM OF COMMA HEAD/TROWAL SNOWS. THIS

WOULD SUPPORT A LONG-DURATION OF OCCASIONAL SNOW...POSSIBLY

MIXED WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST.

Just a little white for Christmas please!

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A little more throw away LE stuff here now... Maybe .25 inch. You feel almost cheating to keep logging it in though when it must be like 30-1 ratio sometimes. Wharever is falling now will sublimate or blow away by tomorrow. I do have around 2" to 4" on the ground in general.

I've only measured just over 1" to date (1.2") and it took 3 events.

:rolleyes:

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Hang your weenies on this though I bet Ryan doesn't like the chances

STILL APPEARS WE COULD SEE A SECOND ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS

PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE

OFFSHORE LOW OCCLUDES AND WARM AIR ALOFT WRAPS CYCLONICALLY BACK

INTO NEW ENGLAND IN THE FORM OF COMMA HEAD/TROWAL SNOWS. THIS

WOULD SUPPORT A LONG-DURATION OF OCCASIONAL SNOW...POSSIBLY

MIXED WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST.

That implies there's a first round! lol

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No we wont lol.

It's deeper than that, though - sometimes the lesson should apply (and is failed to do so ...), sometimes welp - the atmosphere just cooperates and what is modeled becomes real.

The deeper question is, when to employ either?

Not simple. There really is no governing principle that dictates when it is safe to be optimistic and not. Harvey Leonard and I used to commiserate on more than just one occasion how middle and extended range vision is art of sorts - it's a art that emerges when using all the statisical and numerical model tools. The great ones can somehow blend these and create a canvas in mind's eye; then it is just a matter of describing the painting. In this situation the artistry would have eluded Van Gough.

The Euro model at 96 hour lead off of 12z yesterday compared to that same interval off of the 12z today was unheralded for poor performance since the induction of the 4D variable system. With such a powerful prognostic tool, proven, over long period of time and countless plethora of different event types showing that kind of breakdown in performance, what that signals with 100% clarity is that this synoptic evolution we are proceding through cannot be modeled. It was too difficult given the state of the art. It can only be broad brushed, unfortunately from which almost N/A determinism can be derived by the models. By man - hm, maybe not so dire.

We have teleconnectors. I have discussed usage of these in detail, in the past. The problem is, they cannot really be used for specific events, but what they can be used for is to assign better probability regions for certain events - and then it is a waiting game for the models to start pegging a system in that region. When the signal is positive and a system emerges, those tend to occur compared to when the teleconnectors are negative and the models attempt a development. It would have been very difficult to use the teleconnectors this time, because the NAO is being differentially handled by the CDC and CPC agencies. They just don't agree. The former depresses the index and keeps it there through 3 weeks, while the latter neutralizes it starting pretty much right now. The PNA isn't any help either, being heavily negative at CPC but N/S at CDC.

Bottom line, this was just a rare scenario that was, per current method in atmospheric flluid mechanical modeling, not determinable at usual time ranges. And, this leaves room open for further permutations too, please keep that in mind (whatever they may be)

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Did you crush the hopes and dreams of your students today?

With tear in my eyes and a quivering upper lip, I divulged the bad Euro news... then I gave them their progress reports - double whammy! (most were great)

I told them all how computers are evil and they lie and how the market for chairs, ropes, and structural lumber have skyrocketed in the last 12 hours and there is no Santa Claus and we will all be working digging ditches in a snowless wasteland of humidity and torches...

They were cool since they had their phones...

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