December 19th-20 Storm Thread III

[Clinch Leatherwood]

The funny part is it only goes to show HPC isn't above failing either. We've gotten to familiar with ripping and reading.

As TT said the signs were there in the volatility and 2 runs don't make a trend.

[CT Rain]

The funny part is it only goes to show HPC isn't above failing either. We've gotten to familiar with ripping and reading.

As TT said the signs were there in the volatility and 2 runs don't make a trend.

I'm just glad we don't have one lingering piece of guidance holding out hope for a big snow. Everything across the board is a fail.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Interesting to note the 18z 17th NAM kind of led the charge east. Probably not bad to see it drifting west as it was never an uber hit anyway.

[DomNH]

The funny part is it only goes to show HPC isn't above failing either. We've gotten to familiar with ripping and reading.

As TT said the signs were there in the volatility and 2 runs don't make a trend.

I think we all got caught up in the fact that it was the Euro and Euro ENS that were doing it. Unfortunately it proved that it's not as infallible as previously thought this storm and we will know better next time around.

[weathafella]

Interesting to note the 18z 17th NAM kind of led the charge east. Probably not bad to see it drifting west as it was never an uber hit anyway.

It certainly was a gigantic hit about 2 days ago on the extended product (DGEX).

[correnjim1]

I think we all got caught up in the fact that it was the Euro and Euro ENS that were doing it. Unfortunately it proved that it's not as infallible as previously thought this storm and we will know better next time around.

No we wont lol.

[tamarack]

As I recall Feb/March 1987 was a lot lime last winter with a block and cold high just forcing it all to the south of NY and NE. But as I said ..here in ENY we did have a stellar January before the snow died. Maybe the storm John recalls came at the beginning of that thankless pattern.

Had nearly 50" IMBY (then Gardiner, Maine) in 1/87 from 5 storms, so I can't remember any notable misses. 2/87 was PWM's dryest month (any month, not just Feb) ever recorded, but we had a nice 8-10" dump in early March, followed by below normal temps and a few small storms going into the month's final week, sustaining a tall and dense snowpack. Then came the big thaw, 6 days with highs mainly 60s followed by 4-7" rain, and the Kennebec's greatest measured flood (with only 3/1936 even close), 22 feet over flood stage in AUG. The flow peaked at 232,000 cfs just upriver, the greateast flow measured for any Maine river. The K'bec hasn't approached half of that flow since.

[Logan11]

This storm is dead for 80% of the people in the thread - only the die hards now are still here hoping it will come back enough for Cape Cod. I gain absolutely nothing from that, but still I'm kinda rooting it west so somebody gets something. The few posters we have from Nova Scotia should be happy.

Interesting to note the 18z 17th NAM kind of led the charge east. Probably not bad to see it drifting west as it was never an uber hit anyway.

[Cold Miser]

No we wont lol.

Lol - Most won't learn the lesson. I know I'm guilty of jumping on board the let-down express more than once.

[correnjim1]

Lol - Most won't learn the lesson. I know I'm guilty of jumping on board the let-down express more than once.

I know i wont,i'll be here till the bitter end.

[weathafella]

I know i wont,i'll be here till the bitter end.

I think we might look askance at all guidance including the good doctor. That one thing will be helpful.

[Logan11]

I remember that massive flood in early April. That is the one where the bridge over the Schoharie Creek I-90 near mile marker 175 collapsed and six cars went in ...corpses found in the Mohawk and even Hudson weeks later. That storm buried the Smokeys with snow down south there under the upper low.

Then winter made one last stand with a late season snowfall around the 20th of April as I recall.

Had nearly 50" IMBY (then Gardiner, Maine) in 1/87 from 5 storms, so I can't remember any notable misses. 2/87 was PWM's dryest month (any month, not just Feb) ever recorded, but we had a nice 8-10" dump in early March, followed by below normal temps and a few small storms going into the month's final week, sustaining a tall and dense snowpack. Then came the big thaw, 6 days with highs mainly 60s followed by 4-7" rain, and the Kennebec's greatest measured flood (with only 3/1936 even close), 22 feet over flood stage in AUG. The flow peaked at 232,000 cfs just upriver, the greateast flow measured for any Maine river. The K'bec hasn't approached half of that flow since.

[TalcottWx]

Was every model a disaster today?

[Organizing Low]

geezus christ

i just got a chance to look at the euro panels myself

its not even ******* close, it shifted about 1500 ******* miles storm is way up east of newfoundland in the open north atlantic, wow

[Clinch Leatherwood]

It certainly was a gigantic hit about 2 days ago on the extended product (DGEX).

We still have 2 runs to get this done down here. What I hate to see though is this same exact pattern as 2009 where the MA could do no wrong. Note the big shift NW for the 60hr accum down there but by the time we get around the Canyons off Jersey it's mabye 10-20 miles NW. Same old same old, the barrier still exists with this crazy pinwheel.

At 48 hours it's a lot better. The most southern energy off the carolinas is slower and stronger, NW of there it's slower and probably stronger as well. They slowed at about an even rate this run which really negates any ability to get a good hit and the multi-year problem of these piddly dink southern stream s/w complexes developing a strung out low continues.

Let's hope we see this slowing trend continue in the most southern system, let it get more in phase with the rest of the complex to the NW and we may be able to get this thing turned in time for some.

[DomNH]

Was every model a disaster today?

Unmitigated.

[mattb65]

At least the models aren't going to bust on the 3 to 8 feet of snow for the sierras that'd been on the models for over a week, that should help boost its verification score

[Clinch Leatherwood]

This storm is dead for 80% of the people in the thread - only the die hards now are still here hoping it will come back enough for Cape Cod. I gain absolutely nothing from that, but still I'm kinda rooting it west so somebody gets something. The few posters we have from Nova Scotia should be happy.

its suspect that we may have a spurious low so far east of GA on many models RIGHT under that complex at 500mb that almost always goes poof inside of 42/36 hours. Remove that little disturbance and you may have a more robust northern system that wraps up faster.

Speculation and I'd agree with the 80/20 number. The net effect may be a dagger in terms of a more significant system in the MA that STILL cannot round the corner. Let's see the GFS trend too its usually less prone to problems off the coast with the complexes.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

We are only in the 3rd week of meteorological winter - no need to panic.

I'm pretty sure no location from Boston to the Berkshires has ever had a snowless winter.

[Logan11]

Seems like the Euro is kind of a mess right now.... Flip flopping like the GFS at it's worst. Not that the storm is gonna hit, but that is extreme.

geezus christ

i just got a chance to look at the euro panels myself

its not even ******* close, it shifted about 1500 ******* miles storm is way up east of newfoundland in the open north atlantic, wow

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Seems like the Euro is kind of a mess right now.... Flip flopping like the GFS at it's worst. Not that the storm is gonna hit, but that is extreme.

It will be interesting to hear what pieces of the puzzle might be throwing the models off.

[Logan11]

Difference with last year though is the under performing southern stream now (actually it was the sub trop jet last year). So yeah... way down in VA they get some snow, but no KU storms. These storms can't bomb until they are way out....

We still have 2 runs to get this done down here. What I hate to see though is this same exact pattern as 2009 where the MA could do no wrong. Note the big shift NW for the 60hr accum down there but by the time we get around the Canyons off Jersey it's mabye 10-20 miles NW. Same old same old, the barrier still exists with this crazy pinwheel.

At 48 hours it's a lot better. The most southern energy off the carolinas is slower and stronger, NW of there it's slower and probably stronger as well. They slowed at about an even rate this run which really negates any ability to get a good hit and the multi-year problem of these piddly dink southern stream s/w complexes developing a strung out low continues.

Let's hope we see this slowing trend continue in the most southern system, let it get more in phase with the rest of the complex to the NW and we may be able to get this thing turned in time for some.

[tamarack]

I remember that massive flood in early April. That is the one where the bridge over the Schoharie Creek I-90 near mile marker 175 collapsed and six cars went in ...corpses found in the Mohawk and even Hudson weeks later. That storm buried the Smokeys with snow down south there under the upper low.

Then winter made one last stand with a late season snowfall around the 20th of April as I recall.

IIRC, the Schoharie disaster came from a separate rain event a week or so after the Maine flood, which peaked on April 1 or 2, depending on how far down the Kennebec one measured.

The snowstorm was on 4/28-29, I think, and dropped 6"+ in Gardiner. ORH got something like 15".

[HIPPYVALLEY]

At least the models aren't going to bust on the 3 to 8 feet of snow for the sierras that'd been on the models for over a week, that should help boost its verification score

Rarely do forecasted Sierra snow storms bust. But alas, New England is where I call home.

[moneypitmike]

We are only in the 3rd week of meteorological winter - no need to panic.

I'm pretty sure no location from Boston to the Berkshires has ever had a snowless winter.

Who hasn't been able to measure snow yet (outside of Boston)?

[DomNH]

Who hasn't been able to measure snow yet (outside of Boston)?

The ASH/MHT/CON corridor up through Brian hasn't.

[SouthCoastMA]

There will be 1 crappy model at 00z that will show a hit. watch.

[dendrite]

The ASH/MHT/CON corridor up through Brian hasn't.

I've had a few tenths, but it may as well be 0. I believe ORH still has had no measurable too.

[mayjawintastawm]

I just relocated from ORH, where I've spent the bulk of my life, to just south of Denver. I don't know what's worse.... no snow after a gazillion models make us all ready to throw a party, or no snow when the models just have boring ridge after boring ridge (after boring ridge, after boring ridge....). The natives here tell me it's weird for here too.

I was really pulling for you guys (and my relatives!)

At least I can drive to some very fun orographically induced powder! One of few weather benefits to living in an otherwise dull regime.

[OSUmetstud]

There will be 1 crappy model at 00z that will show a hit. watch.

I want it to get the heck out of the way so we have a shot at the next clipper to amplify.