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December 19th-20 Storm Thread III


Baroclinic Zone

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Actually, scratch that - it could have been... The worst of all time was that blown Blizzard Warning way back in January of 1987 - the one compared to the Blizzard of '78 by KTAN? Many of you were not even born; it could be worse here.

Bar none ... that cannot be exceeded in terms of sense of loss, utter anger, and for lack of better word even sadness

If thats the one Im thinking didnt they show Shelby Scott on the Cape in the middle of a blizzard? There were a couple of big storms forecasted back in the late 80's that missed us and hit the cape pretty good. Im a little west of you and think i got a dusting.

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Parking Ban FAIL

Dear Students:With snow in the forecast, our Facilities Management Department will need unimpeded access in the parking lots for the plows to operate. A parking ban will be instituted beginning at 12 noon on Sunday December 19th. At 12 noon on Sunday all vehicles should be relocated to Lot #17 (large lot - east campus).The parking ban will remain in effect into Monday. A notification will be sent out when the ban is concluded. Please monitor your Stonehill College email for updates to the parking ban.You may stay in a residential parking lot for a brief period of time (20 minute maximum) if you are actively loading your vehicle to leave campus. When loading, please make sure your vehicle is in a marked parking space, not a fire lane, handicap space, or staff space.Thank you in advance for your cooperation.

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The elephant was the warmth over the last year, not snowlessness.

Honestly this is just bad luck and hopefully things stay interesting in the short and long term.

As I mentioned earlier today the area from west of ORH to ALB has been in a snow hole (except for the highest terrain) .

Not sure if Keene area has been similar?

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That's in my region ...being in the ALB market, and it seems to me the obs from that route 7 corridor of Bennington County tend to be underwhelming. I'm sure they do ok, but any Upslope is east of where the population centers are ...on those cross roads that go over the Greens such as route 9, route 11, etc. Places like Woodford get buried, but towns like Bennington and Manchester not really.

Thanks....where I am staying abuts conservation land and the greens I think....so some hiking or snowmobiling is in order

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Really anyone who relies on seasonal dependent employment. Ain't a lot of workers at the ski areas yet and I'm sure sales for all things winter are slow.

:popcorn:

Same as '06, but that was a torch. It definitely feels like winter, just doesn't look like it.

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What's funny is it's playing out just like last year. In closer it's pulling NW for those down in the MA, but up here it's more subtle struggling to get around to coming NW. If history is a guide it will pull further NW down there and pull just far enough NW here to piss us all off even more.

I'm sure the GFS will throw the fantasy .01 and .1 lines NW this run, but it's meaningless. The only positive is there was a good jump towards a more consolidated low.

Back to work nothing to see.

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Has anyone seen the latest HPC extended discussion from this afternoon..... LIKE WHAT!

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

141 PM EST THU DEC 16 2010

VALID 12Z SUN DEC 19 2010 - 12Z THU DEC 23 2010

..INCREASING THREAT OF MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER STORM

..CONTINUED HEAVY PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEST

EXTREME HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK TO RETROGRADE TO NCENTRAL CANADA

LOCKING IN TROFS OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN ATLC MID TO LATE

PERIOD. PRIOR TO THAT FAST ZONAL PAC FLOW CONTS TO DRIVE INTO THE

WEST AND EASTERN THRU THE PLAINS WITH A FIRST RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED

SHORTWAVE COMING TOWARDS THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND ROTATING NWD

WITH A DEEP OFF SHORE STORM FOLLOWED BY BRIEFLY ZONAL FLOW AGAIN

WITH EMBEDDED WAEKER SHORTWAVES COMING ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE

EAST.

UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS BLENDED THE 00Z UKMET WITH THE 00Z ECMWF

ENS MEAN DAYS 3 TO 5.

THIS KEPT UP A WIND AND COASTAL SNOW THREAT ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND

COAST DAYS 4-5 LATE SUN INTO TUES. OPERATIONAL RUNS OF 00Z ECMWF

AND GFS HAVE REVERSED SOLUTIONS SINCE YTDAS 12Z RUNS WITH THE N

ATLC LOW. LAGGED AVERAGE FORECAST OF LAST 4 RUNS OF BOTH GFS AND

ECMWF PREFERRED KEEPING THE SFC LOW EAST OF THE 00Z OP ECMWF

CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN AND EASILY CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT

COASTAL NEW ENGLAND.

12Z GFS HAS SWITCHED BACK TO A DEEPER MUCH CLOSER IN LOW CLOSE TO

YTDAS 12Z GFS AND CURRENT 00Z ECMWF TAKING A 980 MB OFF CAPE COD.

THIS SCENARIO FOLLOWS YTDAS HPC PROGS AND THINKING AS MODELS BEGIN

TO CONVERGE ON A MORE AGREED UPON SOLUTION WITH GOOD HPC FORECAST

CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAY. 12Z UKMET NOW DEEPER AND A BIT FARTHER

OFF WHILE THE OP CMC HAS A 976 MB LOW NEAR THE NORTHEAST BENCHMARK

AT 40/70 WHILE ECMWF HAS ITS 975 MB LOW NEAR BLOCK ISLAND SOUND.

NAVY NOGAPS ALSO DEEP AND CLOSE IN TO CAPE COD. GFS ENS MEANS A

BIT EAST BUT MEAN PCPN SHOWING A SIG PCPN EVENT OVER COASTAL MA.

AFTN PROGS WILL ADJUST SLIGHTLY WEST HAVING A DEEP LOW NEAR THE

NORTHEAST BENCHMARK. MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON THIS SOLUTION WITH

INCREASED FORECASTER CONFIDNECE.

RAPID DEEPENING INDICATED BY 12Z GFS/CMC/00Z AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS

FOLLOWS DYNAMICS AND THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED BAROCLINICITY DUE

TO THE DE STABILIZATION OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS FROM THE

RECENT COLD AIR OUTBREAK MEETING. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT OF A

SNOW EVENT ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST FROM EASTERN VA UP THE COAST

AND ESPECIALLY A HEAVY SNOW THREAT FOR COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. SOME

ADDITIONAL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT MADE FROM THIS MORNINGS PRELIMS

WITH AFTN UPDATED PROGS INCLUDING OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS AND 12Z CMC.

HIGH WIND AND SNOW THREAT NEW ENG COAST LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

NEXT CLIPPER TYPE OF LOW ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD IN ITS TRACK THAN GFS

TO COME THRU THE SRN APPLCHNS AND OFF NC COAST TUES. BLEND OF

GFS/ECMWF ENS MADE WHICH ALSO MATCHES A LAGGED AVERAGE FORECAST

FOR DAYS 6 AND 7.

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Yeah but even before I logged in I was telling other members I thought the threat was SE NE. Never bought into the blizzard scenario.

Ray had already printed his "I survived the great blizzard of December 2010" shirts.

He seemed the happiest he's been on here in a year yesterday afternoon. I feel bad.

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The NAM is really nailing Halifax now. :thumbsup:

What's funny is it's playing out just like last year. In closer it's pulling NW for those down in the MA, but up here it's more subtle struggling to get around to coming NW. If history is a guide it will pull further NW down there and pull just far enough NW here to piss us all off even more.

I'm sure the GFS will throw the fantasy .01 and .1 lines NW this run, but it's meaningless. The only positive is there was a good jump towards a more consolidated low.

Back to work nothing to see.

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Man, obviously we're all pretty dejected, but I feel bad for the plow guys. They've taken a huge hit so far and it doesn't look like it's going to get any better.

Yeah I hear you there, I don't plow for the state or town, I just have 15 or so driveways and a few parking lots. It is decent cash when the going is good a like 04-05 winte type was great, but when its going the way it has of late it is rough but what can you do? The thing is even if its just small clippers that throw down 3-5 your good to go, you don't need the monsters even though everyone loves them. That is what makes this event tough to take it looked huge and then to maybe not even get anything but cirrus clouds is a real kick in the balls. I will wait on the 00z runs before I put the fork in this one, maybe somehow i can score a few inches down this way who knows. Anyway I think I would be more upset if this was March 17th, but its December and we still got a while yet although it does not look great and nothing has worked out, hopefully we can pull somthing out of the hat down the road even if it is just a small event snow is snow at this point LOL. I will stop rambling now but we are just a week or so out from Christmas my best advice is its time to enjoy the season, parties, friends and family. Let the heavy heavy drinking begin tonight!

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I just want everyone to know that things went in the sh*tter BEFORE I bought the snow tires. There was no jinxing involved.

26.8/17

We'd like a copy of the receipt lol

Somebody has been messing with New England's juju for the last 12 months. Could be anyone, but I think it's time to step up the investigation

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Honestly this is just bad luck and hopefully things stay interesting in the short and long term.

As I mentioned earlier today the area from west of ORH to ALB has been in a snow hole (except for the highest terrain) .

Not sure if Keene area has been similar?

The models weren't unlucky. The models were sucky.

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Has anyone seen the latest HPC extended discussion from this afternoon..... LIKE WHAT!

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

141 PM EST THU DEC 16 2010

VALID 12Z SUN DEC 19 2010 - 12Z THU DEC 23 2010

..INCREASING THREAT OF MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER STORM

..CONTINUED HEAVY PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEST

EXTREME HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK TO RETROGRADE TO NCENTRAL CANADA

LOCKING IN TROFS OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN ATLC MID TO LATE

PERIOD. PRIOR TO THAT FAST ZONAL PAC FLOW CONTS TO DRIVE INTO THE

WEST AND EASTERN THRU THE PLAINS WITH A FIRST RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED

SHORTWAVE COMING TOWARDS THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND ROTATING NWD

WITH A DEEP OFF SHORE STORM FOLLOWED BY BRIEFLY ZONAL FLOW AGAIN

WITH EMBEDDED WAEKER SHORTWAVES COMING ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE

EAST.

UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS BLENDED THE 00Z UKMET WITH THE 00Z ECMWF

ENS MEAN DAYS 3 TO 5.

THIS KEPT UP A WIND AND COASTAL SNOW THREAT ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND

COAST DAYS 4-5 LATE SUN INTO TUES. OPERATIONAL RUNS OF 00Z ECMWF

AND GFS HAVE REVERSED SOLUTIONS SINCE YTDAS 12Z RUNS WITH THE N

ATLC LOW. LAGGED AVERAGE FORECAST OF LAST 4 RUNS OF BOTH GFS AND

ECMWF PREFERRED KEEPING THE SFC LOW EAST OF THE 00Z OP ECMWF

CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN AND EASILY CLOSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT

COASTAL NEW ENGLAND.

12Z GFS HAS SWITCHED BACK TO A DEEPER MUCH CLOSER IN LOW CLOSE TO

YTDAS 12Z GFS AND CURRENT 00Z ECMWF TAKING A 980 MB OFF CAPE COD.

THIS SCENARIO FOLLOWS YTDAS HPC PROGS AND THINKING AS MODELS BEGIN

TO CONVERGE ON A MORE AGREED UPON SOLUTION WITH GOOD HPC FORECAST

CONTINUITY FROM YESTERDAY. 12Z UKMET NOW DEEPER AND A BIT FARTHER

OFF WHILE THE OP CMC HAS A 976 MB LOW NEAR THE NORTHEAST BENCHMARK

AT 40/70 WHILE ECMWF HAS ITS 975 MB LOW NEAR BLOCK ISLAND SOUND.

NAVY NOGAPS ALSO DEEP AND CLOSE IN TO CAPE COD. GFS ENS MEANS A

BIT EAST BUT MEAN PCPN SHOWING A SIG PCPN EVENT OVER COASTAL MA.

AFTN PROGS WILL ADJUST SLIGHTLY WEST HAVING A DEEP LOW NEAR THE

NORTHEAST BENCHMARK. MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON THIS SOLUTION WITH

INCREASED FORECASTER CONFIDNECE.

RAPID DEEPENING INDICATED BY 12Z GFS/CMC/00Z AND 12Z ECMWF MODELS

FOLLOWS DYNAMICS AND THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED BAROCLINICITY DUE

TO THE DE STABILIZATION OVER RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS FROM THE

RECENT COLD AIR OUTBREAK MEETING. THIS INCREASES THE THREAT OF A

SNOW EVENT ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST FROM EASTERN VA UP THE COAST

AND ESPECIALLY A HEAVY SNOW THREAT FOR COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. SOME

ADDITIONAL WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT MADE FROM THIS MORNINGS PRELIMS

WITH AFTN UPDATED PROGS INCLUDING OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS AND 12Z CMC.

HIGH WIND AND SNOW THREAT NEW ENG COAST LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

NEXT CLIPPER TYPE OF LOW ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD IN ITS TRACK THAN GFS

TO COME THRU THE SRN APPLCHNS AND OFF NC COAST TUES. BLEND OF

GFS/ECMWF ENS MADE WHICH ALSO MATCHES A LAGGED AVERAGE FORECAST

FOR DAYS 6 AND 7.

You copied and pasted yesterdays.

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Parking Ban FAIL

I had a few different people at work today make reference to "the big snowstorm that's coming," including one counterpart at another office who said she'd be in on Monday "as long as I'm not snowed in." I didn't have the heart to tell anyone that nothing's coming. Also, I'm always reluctant to let on how much of a weather geek I am. I can just hear the crickets if, during office birthday-party banter, I blurted out, "Actually, guys, the 12z Euro just came in and stuck a fork in this one. Flizzard at best!"

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Has anyone seen the latest HPC extended discussion from this afternoon..... LIKE WHAT!

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

141 PM EST THU DEC 16 2010

VALID 12Z SUN DEC 19 2010 - 12Z THU DEC 23 2010

..INCREASING THREAT OF MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER STORM

..CONTINUED HEAVY PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEST

Thursday the 16th was yesterday.

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I had a few different people at work today make reference to "the big snowstorm that's coming," including one counterpart at another office who said she's be in on Monday "as long as I'm not snowed in." I didn't have the heart to tell anyone that nothing's coming. Also, I'm always reluctant to let on how much of a weather geek I am. I can just hear the crickets if, during office birthday-party banter, I blurted out, "Actually, guys, the 12z Euro just cam in and stuck a fork in this one. Flizzard at best!"

I was flipping through the radio stations in the car, found someone talking about the big snow on Sunday, and then played "I'm Dreaming of a White Christmas". Wanted to puke all over the wheel.

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http://www.youtube.c...h?v=lwS_YDzxH3M

Has anyone seen the latest HPC extended discussion from this afternoon..... LIKE WHAT!

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

141 PM EST THU DEC 16 2010

VALID 12Z SUN DEC 19 2010 - 12Z THU DEC 23 2010

..INCREASING THREAT OF MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER STORM

..CONTINUED HEAVY PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEST

EXTREME HIGH LATITUDE BLOCK TO RETROGRADE TO NCENTRAL CANADA

LOCKING IN TROFS OVER THE ERN PACIFIC AND WESTERN ATLC MID TO LATE

PERIOD. PRIOR TO THAT FAST ZONAL PAC FLOW CONTS TO DRIVE INTO THE

WEST AND EASTERN THRU THE PLAINS WITH A FIRST RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED

SHORTWAVE COMING TOWARDS THE EAST COAST SUNDAY AND ROTATING NWD

WITH A DEEP OFF SHORE STORM FOLLOWED BY BRIEFLY ZONAL FLOW AGAIN

WITH EMBEDDED WAEKER SHORTWAVES COMING ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE

EAST.

...

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Has anyone seen the latest HPC extended discussion from this afternoon..... LIKE WHAT!

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

141 PM EST THU DEC 16 2010

VALID 12Z SUN DEC 19 2010 - 12Z THU DEC 23 2010

..INCREASING THREAT OF MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER STORM

..CONTINUED HEAVY PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEST

Read the date before reading the headline please. It's a good practice to pick up

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