grinch1989 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I can fast see today is going to be chock full of whining and complaining..Nauseating I think its hard for some living in the wake of yesterday's 12z euro run, especially western areas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Based on the performance so far of the models in that time range I dont put a lot of home of snow backing down as modeled yet. Certainly if that becomes the main event--- ouch. Ten minutes from a clearer picture. Just one of those times where I wonder if everyone only looked at this from the 0z suite onward would they be so excited? Or do we have this legacy excitement based on potential from earlier runs? Runs have shown this potential. It's not like they are going for 18" of wrap around, but there could be at least a few inches of wrap around as this low closes off and sends a TROWAL back down this way along with some low level convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 This/these thread titles really should be: The Great Yo-Yo ing Of The Weather Enthusiast Community Of 2010 -and introspective guide on how to manipulate people for cruel amusement by the weather gods- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Have you looked at any models? Yeah but I suppose you are also in a better location albeit even further south. I always have concerns about down sloping with retrograde systems. Believe me I'm good with whatever whitens the ground and i certainly won't worry until after the 0z runs tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Thanks for posting this. That's pretty ugly. I can't say for sure yet but is the 12z NAM deflating to anyone else through the first x panels? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 At hr 21, the s./w across AR and MO does look a little sharper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I mean here is my zone forecast..who would be upset with this? .SUNDAY...CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. .SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. .MONDAY...SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 12Z NAM looks like it may come in slightly better than 06z. The energy is slightly stronger and slightly slower in the south...which I've noticed tends to be a significant difference between stronger and lackluster solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yeah time to stick the fork in this one..... Next Stick to the science and quit bitching. I'm going to start deleting any nauseating posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 12Z NAM looks like it may come in slightly better than 06z. The energy is slightly stronger and slightly slower in the south...which I've noticed tends to be a significant difference between stronger and lackluster solutions. Thanks. I haven't followed, notice it was slightly flatter earlier vs the same time on other runs...but if it is slower that's good. Doesn't seem quite as impressive at 24, but I may be misreading due to it being slower. EDIT at 27 coming together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 You know What's really funny.. we had people complaining the euro was too far west just 20 hours ago It was too close for comfort for a lot of people. Try to stay on topic and not whine. See my lat post. I'm going to start cleaning house today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 What effect does ocean temp have on the potential of retrograding systems? Does a March retro have more potential for SNE than a Dec. system or is ocean temp. overridden by other factors? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 He just likes playing devil's advocate..he was doing the same thing yesterday when people were excited about the storm... Funny thing about that is I bought it hook, line and sinker. Have to shower, off to work. Should atleast see the completion of the NAM run. Don't get me wrong here. I'm one of those old fart weenies before time began. Hope beyond hope hat this turns back into a monster. Time for the next threat....lookin...lookin. Ah, don't see any.. Sure going to be a quiet day...LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Euro's handling of the Pac NW energy is a little funky, and there's a lot more interaction with a s/w diving down from Manitoba that ends up enlongating the trough to the SE. Not surprised by the movement overnight though. No changes to my thinking. Big hit for eastern MA through Monday, with nothing much for western New England. I'm talking only about the first round. The storm retrograding toward the region on Tuesday could spread advisory level snows further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The NAM will have to come on strong from where it is at 30/36. The s/w coming through the lakes is handled quite differently this run from the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I don't like how the NAM has lower heights up by Nova Scotia. That tries to suppress the height field somewhat. Maybe that vortmax can help dig the trough...The PV in Canada actually does pull a little more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Wow that s/w is much stronger and sharper of the Midwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Nevermind.. looks way flatter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I don't like how the NAM has lower heights up by Nova Scotia. That tries to suppress the height field somewhat. Maybe that vortmax can help dig the trough...The PV in Canada actually does pull a little more west. The PAC NW energy is nice coming down the back end of the trough...I wish that southern shortwave would slow down just a touch more so that it will "catch" the vort from Oregon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phishn Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Euro's handling of the Pac NW energy is a little funky, and there's a lot more interaction with a s/w diving down from Manitoba that ends up enlongating the trough to the SE. Not surprised by the movement overnight though. No changes to my thinking. Big hit for eastern MA through Monday, with nothing much for western New England. I'm talking only about the first round. The storm retrograding toward the region on Tuesday could spread advisory level snows further west. Which is why i'm not worried until that shortwave in the pacific northwest is being sampled by soundings. We went through the same deal with the southern stream shortwave already. Interesting to see what happens 12z and on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I don't like how the NAM has lower heights up by Nova Scotia. That tries to suppress the height field somewhat. Maybe that vortmax can help dig the trough...The PV in Canada actually does pull a little more west. Yep but it looks to be getting out of the way? The main s/w looks pretty good coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Better jet streak at 300mb over NB and KS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Look at how many s/W's are on the 36hr nam! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 That s/w across the lower OH valley is a little further north. I don't think this run will do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 That s/w across the lower OH valley is a little further north. I don't think this run will do it. Yeah, looks a bit flatter than 06z thru 42h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 At least to start we're seeing the first s/w kicking the moisture east which I hate. I hate when we are in the position of having to hope for the hook when by 42 the bulk of the precip is off the coast and we'll have to wait for it to hook back on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 interesting trends. hvy hvy baby boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 interesting trends. hvy hvy baby boy. Congrats man! Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Ugly! 0/1 Think that's it guys.. really wanted to see the Nam come in west at 12z.. just not gonna happen with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 interesting trends. hvy hvy baby boy. Congrats again.!!! Wasn't sure if you had posted it last nite or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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