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December 19th-20 Storm Thread III


Baroclinic Zone

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Based on the performance so far of the models in that time range I dont put a lot of home of snow backing down as modeled yet. Certainly if that becomes the main event--- ouch.

Ten minutes from a clearer picture. Just one of those times where I wonder if everyone only looked at this from the 0z suite onward would they be so excited? Or do we have this legacy excitement based on potential from earlier runs?

Runs have shown this potential. It's not like they are going for 18" of wrap around, but there could be at least a few inches of wrap around as this low closes off and sends a TROWAL back down this way along with some low level convergence.

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I mean here is my zone forecast..who would be upset with this?

.SUNDAY...CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT

SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST

WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. ADDITIONAL MODERATE SNOW

ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW

60 PERCENT.

.MONDAY...SNOW LIKELY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. ADDITIONAL LIGHT

SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. CHANCE OF

SNOW 60 PERCENT.

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12Z NAM looks like it may come in slightly better than 06z. The energy is slightly stronger and slightly slower in the south...which I've noticed tends to be a significant difference between stronger and lackluster solutions.

Thanks. I haven't followed, notice it was slightly flatter earlier vs the same time on other runs...but if it is slower that's good. Doesn't seem quite as impressive at 24, but I may be misreading due to it being slower. EDIT at 27 coming together.

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He just likes playing devil's advocate..he was doing the same thing yesterday when people were excited about the storm...

Funny thing about that is I bought it hook, line and sinker. Have to shower, off to work. Should atleast see the completion of the NAM run.

Don't get me wrong here. I'm one of those old fart weenies before time began. Hope beyond hope hat this turns back into a monster. Time for the next threat....lookin...lookin. Ah, don't see any..

Sure going to be a quiet day...LOL

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Euro's handling of the Pac NW energy is a little funky, and there's a lot more interaction with a s/w diving down from Manitoba that ends up enlongating the trough to the SE.

Not surprised by the movement overnight though. No changes to my thinking. Big hit for eastern MA through Monday, with nothing much for western New England. I'm talking only about the first round. The storm retrograding toward the region on Tuesday could spread advisory level snows further west.

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I don't like how the NAM has lower heights up by Nova Scotia. That tries to suppress the height field somewhat. Maybe that vortmax can help dig the trough...The PV in Canada actually does pull a little more west.

The PAC NW energy is nice coming down the back end of the trough...I wish that southern shortwave would slow down just a touch more so that it will "catch" the vort from Oregon.

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Euro's handling of the Pac NW energy is a little funky, and there's a lot more interaction with a s/w diving down from Manitoba that ends up enlongating the trough to the SE.

Not surprised by the movement overnight though. No changes to my thinking. Big hit for eastern MA through Monday, with nothing much for western New England. I'm talking only about the first round. The storm retrograding toward the region on Tuesday could spread advisory level snows further west.

Which is why i'm not worried until that shortwave in the pacific northwest is being sampled by soundings. We went through the same deal with the southern stream shortwave already. Interesting to see what happens 12z and on.

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