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December 19th-20 Storm Thread III


Baroclinic Zone

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There's still a little inverted trough action for NNE/ENE. But it's a far cry from the 00z Euro.

Looks like about 0.10 around ORH...0.20ish around BOS and here...a little over 0.25 for PWM.

I've had it with inverted troughs and retro garbage. Maybe if I lived in Bangor or Eastport that would be some consolation, but it won't happen here.

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As far as I' m concerned 2010 has been about 95% wx failure from my perspective. Almost every storm missed last winter. (Yes one huge exception here in late Feb. by the skin of our teeth so 5%...but u can't live 360 days on 5 days of glory). Then the abhorrently warm summer followed by a hurricane season that produced like 19 storms and no threats of interest anywhere near us. Now a cold December that may average out above normal precip-wise without one good snowstorm.

Assuming this thing plays out as currently progged, it fits perfectly with the last 12 months in this area - lots of teases and no substance. Last winter had all those huge storms and the only one not a clean miss arrived after all the cold air had rotted out - nearly 4" qpf from a perfectly placed LP in Feb and only mush. This past summer I think we had more severe wx watches than in any previous, and we never even had a moderately strong TS (had to go to Illinois to see that.) In fact, we've had only 8 days with thunder all year, easily the least I've had here and less than half of my avg. Now we get storm teases and no-shows during what was supposed to be the best part of a La Nina winter. Guess it all fits together. Can't even get real cold in this area - though CON is exactly normal for 12/1-16, PWM is +0.6, BGR about +2, CAR +9.

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I've had better success with inverted troughs than the full-fledged retro lows recently. It's better than 35F and sun.

I can't remember the last time one of those actually delivered here. As for 35 and sun, that feels pretty nice. If it's not going to snow I'll take the sun on these absurdly short days (2.5 hours of daylight left...).

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I know it's not worth getting all bent out of shape over, but how the F*ck could everything be so off from 24 hours, even less than that ago. I freaking knew when I woke up today that this crap was gonna happen. I tried to keep myself from going on line earlier today, but I did so just the same, just to see, and it was just what I expected. Now, I don't even think I'll see a freaking flurry before Christmas. Hats off to those in Virginia who got their 3" or so this week.

. . . Truly pathetic.

I apologize for the rant, but hey, my wife doesn't give a crap, and people at work surely don't know what the hell I'm talking about, so this is a good a place as any.

I'm out.

I just showed this post to my wife--she burst out laughing. It is SOOOOO true.

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This is probably what it was like forecasting in the 60's and 70's with just the LFM, etc. I know I recall events as a kid where a winter storm watch was up and the next day it's partly cloudy. This kind of crazy miss may have been routine. This is what 30 years of tweaking wx models has achieved. :devilsmiley:

Wow this is probably one of the biggest model FUs within 72 hours of an event I've seen in a long time.

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I can't remember the last time one of those actually delivered here. As for 35 and sun, that feels pretty nice. If it's not going to snow I'll take the sun on these absurdly short days (2.5 hours of daylight left...).

Well I had a jackpot 14" from one 12/19-20/07. You guys get plenty of norluns...those are inverted troughs. Heck there was one along the downeast coast this morning.
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I've had better success with inverted troughs than the full-fledged retro lows recently. It's better than 35F and sun.

Yup, at least retros keep things a bit interesting being somewhat of a novelty around here. It's been snowing off & on here all week--light stuff, hit & run--but I'll take it. Westerlies are boring. ;)

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I'm starting to think if it's possible we can go 0 for a winter. Busts my forecast hugely but it may be worth it to see if we can have a cold winter and 0 snow. Intriguing and perhaps worth chasing....

We'd get to April and then some morning in mid April...we'd pick up a sloppy half inch to mess things up. This sucks.

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