ineedsnow Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 it would really suck if the euro came back west and really screwed everyone up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 it would really suck if the euro came back west and really screwed everyone up Yea that would suck big time if the euro showed a mecs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 it would really suck if the euro came back west and really screwed everyone up It's not. This run will be a total miss and then the retro will back snow down across all of SNE Tuesday/Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I think part of the problem is the anomalous pattern. We have huge blocking with fast flow underneath...no ridge in the west. Last year we had stronger blocking and ridging out west...this equals slower flow. The flow now is fast under the big GOA low and like Wes said in the main thread...we are getting bombarded with s/w's. Having that kind of flow will cause any little change in timing to have big differences down stream some 48-72 hrs. So the GoA low is screwing us even though its not flooding us with warm Pacific air. FWIW, (probably not much) the GFS is showing a little bit of a ridge out west for the Christmas Day threat. Based on what you're saying maybe that will help us. Still 8 days out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Nail in the coffin = T-45 min Then we can all take a break for a while and regroup for 18Z. At least that's my plan. fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Whatever data they all see today has led to OTS runs. Euro will not be drastically different IMO, but it might not be a total whiff... We'll know soon enough! And they could all resurrect this thing somewhat for eastern areas in later runs because it is still 2 days + away. Maybe Ray should hold off on heading to the bridge. LOL it would really suck if the euro came back west and really screwed everyone up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 So the GoA low is screwing us even though its not flooding us with warm Pacific air. FWIW, (probably not much) the GFS is showing a little bit of a ridge out west for the Christmas Day threat. Based on what you're saying maybe that will help us. Still 8 days out though. Well you figure we probably have fast flow underneath that low. Just a few thoughts anyways. Wes and Don S seem to go along those lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 fixed. I think we will see some shifting that will maybe help eastern areas (extreme) but how many times have things trended back in these situations for the positive? Almost never. It's largely over and we know the EC is going to be a miss too. I think the Bos to PVD corridor still has to be alert and points SE particularly. (up north not commenting). But everyone else, I suspect it's already cooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Let's see what I missed while I was out. Kevin Ray Jerry Zucker Weather Models Sunday's weather Merry Christmas. Perfect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 Perfect! At least someone liked it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Has anyone seen Ray? Should 911 be contacted? Has anyone figured out why yesterday's Euro was so different from today's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yep...Euro will be way east similar to the rest based on early returns. I'm amazed I'm actually in a good mood. I'm getting work done, it's a nice sunny day, the weekend's here...what can be bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Has anyone seen Ray? Should 911 be contacted? Has anyone figured out why yesterday's Euro was so different from today's? He's staying away today because if he was online he knows it would be a shi t show of complaining and he doesn't want to do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 He's staying away today because if he was online he knows it would be a shi t show of complaining and he doesn't want to do that Wise idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Did you guys notice that GGEM retrogrades this storm back and gives decent snows all the way to NYC almost? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 NOGAPS almost gets precip to the BM. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/dynamic/NGP/2010121712/ngp10.prp.060.namer.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Did you guys notice that GGEM retrogrades this storm back and gives decent snows all the way to NYC almost? We just talked about it in the last couple of pages. Do people read any posts before posting anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 If I were forecasting I'd say clouds increase Sunday, temps in the 30s. Cloudy Sunday night, near 30, Possible snow or rain showers Mon-Wed, 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 We just talked about it in the last couple of pages. Do people read any posts before posting anymore? Sorry. Didnt have time to read thru all pages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Looks like JB is going down hard! But he'll spin something. HAH b He's staying away today because if he was online he knows it would be a shi t show of complaining and he doesn't want to do that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 When does the EC strangle the last few breaths of life out of this storm? It's already started right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Euro 54 hours, low is 30/70 and heading out. The model forgot which latitude was the bm and put it 30 vs 40...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Euro 54 hours, low is 30/70 and heading out. The model forgot which latitude was the bm and put it 30 vs 40...lol Don't worry...Amy and I will be in Buffalo for Christmas...so you guys will get your Christmas threat lol. I'm the common link...2 storms missed in February this past year..now this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 So far this month the retro's have mainly benefited Northern NE and Quebec. So maybe we should keep that in mind before getting worked up over a few inches from that. Dendrite's area etc. a lot more hope probably.... Did you guys notice that GGEM retrogrades this storm back and gives decent snows all the way to NYC almost? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Euro 54 hours, low is 30/70 and heading out. The model forgot which latitude was the bm and put it 30 vs 40...lol Hahaha, so what we have is the classic scenario at the end of this clip. This summarizes the last 24 hours for weather weenies. This represents the 0z, 6z, and finally the 12z run. That's Ray jumping off the roof behind Leslie Nielsen. Nielsen plays the role of messenger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Good summary Bob. This is excellent; I'm actually paying attention to work today and I'm going hiking in the Catskills on Sunday. Let's see what I missed while I was out. Kevin Ray Jerry Zucker Weather Models Sunday's weather Merry Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Has anyone figured out why yesterday's Euro was so different from today's? I think it's a case where we lost the perfect timing with the SW s/w and the NW s/w. ON the big hits we were getting the PAC NW energy diving into the srn stream s/w and we were getting some early amplification. The vmax dug hard and strong into the SE and off the NC coast and spawned rapid cyclogenesis. Now we seem to be getting a weak GOM/SE sfc reflection associated with the first srn stream s/w. The PAC NW energy dives in too late and pushes the weak srn streamer along. In the loops you can kinda see it round the base of the trough and dampen in the longwave flow. The energy diving in behind it is a bit too late and we get a 2nd low that takes over well OTS. That's my take on it anyway...maybe the others disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The Euro is ridiculously OTS through 78hr. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 17, 2010 Author Share Posted December 17, 2010 And all this time I thought we were going to pull out the big dog since Eck moved to Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The Euro is ridiculously OTS through 78hr. lol Nogaps out to sea? Nogaps is a miss by 400-500 miles and has no backlash at all. I think it's either going to be that scenario or one that works back to the CP but now an ultimate miss, partly cloudy is on the table. I feel the real culprits are the initial impulse that so typically hangs back in the trough structure near Chicago Saturday which serves to help crush/disorganize the energy in the deep south causing it to move quickly. That takes the deep moisture with it, and the surface low that fires up. This is a comical failure for the EC. It's not in league with the GFS until proven otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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