December 19th-20 Storm Thread III

[Damage In Tolland]

Ray just sent me a text and all it said is "I'm devastated"

[Organizing Low]

Would be mostly rain unless you are back in NY state...............

perhaps it will,

but

dont believe the GGEM's temp profiles with retrogading storms, its awful since this whole blocking/retrograding scenario began last year, ive been follwoing it closely here in quebec, its always off several several degrees, and once it gets into RGEM range, it clears up.

its a defintite error the GGEM is prone too.

[MaineJayhawk]

Would be mostly rain unless you are back in NY state...............

Yeah, if I have to rely on my snow coming to me from the northeast I'm pretty much grabbing my ankles.

[Kbosch]

I guess we sort of have to look at it has the Euro had a huge hiccup at 12z yesterday. It's really been otherwise steadfast in showing a miss. Moral of the story is I think I'll wait until 2 consecutive Euro runs like that to really get amped up.

The 00z before was good too; not the amazingly awesome 12z that destroyed us, but it was a great storm. That's what killed me. We had 2 very nice consecutive runs within 100 hours and it looks like it failed us.

[SouthCoastMA]

Nail in the coffin = T-45 min

Then we can all take a break for a while and regroup in 2011. At least that's my plan.

[moneypitmike]

perhaps it will,

but

dont believe the GGEM's temp profiles with retrogading storms, its awful since this whole blocking/retrograding scenario began last year.

its a defintite error its prone too.

I tend not to believe in retrograding storms. Typically, they fail.

[H2Otown_WX]

Looks like our next threat is 200+ hours away again...

[Organizing Low]

I tend not to believe in retrograding storms. Typically, they fail.

neither do i but....

[dryslot]

15 mins until the euro comes out and we can put the 6th bullet in the chamber and COC the hammer back........

[CT Rain]

That's not true, Ryan. The EC had a hit at both 00 and 12z runs yesterday. There has been nothing steadfast about the EC. True, it had consecuitve OTS solutions. But those were based on radically different setups. So I think it has had major "fails" over the past week.

You're right, my bad. Don't really know what to say about it to be honest.

[dendrite]

Would be mostly rain unless you are back in NY state...............

Maybe in E ME and coastal areas, but I doubt it's rain here in the interior despite what 2m temps say (and I haven't seen them yet).

In my backyard I think I'd rather take my chance on accums with an inverted trough cyclonically circulating around the OTS low than having the whole thing back in. I want to keep a NE flow in the llvls to cut down on my downslope.

[MaineJayhawk]

Looks like our next threat is 200+ hours away again...

I'm hoping something good comes out of this midweek retro-disaster and then we'll take a look at what the weekend has in store. It has to snow sometime.

[CT Rain]

Ray just sent me a text and all it said is "I'm devastated"

Yeah it sucks... what are you gonna do though.

[Typhoon Tip]

what kinda of interesting in an eerie way about this kind of work over is that sometimes you're in a pattern where you can take the approach of 'how can it snow', where other times you are in a pattern where the best approach should be 'why won't it snow'

seems since this young cold season kicked off we have been stuck in the latter.

[Cold Miser]

It's pretty sad how quicly this place clears out like a bar at last call when the models show failure.

. . . On the other side, this place will fill up faster than a bar that's giving out free beer if the Euro shows something better for us in a little while.

[Logan11]

I think most people just had a deep belief in the Euro's accuracy inside that range. Like I said before...sad to lose our one reliable model.

What I find hard to believe is how yesterday the models all had the same data and bombed us with snow..now 24 hrs later armed with the same data a day later they are all basically misses.

What kind of faith in models does this give us? Even the best mets yesterday bought the idea that the Euro was right and was gonna crush us.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah it sucks... what are you gonna do though.

Nothing we can do.Just hope we can get a couple inches on Tuesday/Wed I guess

[Organizing Low]

Ray just sent me a text and all it said is "I'm devastated"

2 runs of the euro inside 100 hours

its a dagger, no doubt.

[ski MRG]

It could still happen.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Let's see what I missed while I was out.

Kevin

Ray

Jerry

Zucker

Weather Models

Sunday's weather

Merry Christmas.

[dryslot]

Maybe in E ME and coastal areas, but I doubt it's rain here in the interior despite what 2m temps say (and I haven't seen them yet).

In my backyard I think I'd rather take my chance on accums with an inverted trough cyclonically circulating around the OTS low than having the whole thing back in. I want to keep a NE flow in the llvls to cut down on my downslope.

I would rather see the inverted trough as well, Depending where it sets up, Intead of anything retrograding back west, I have yet to get snow from one here.........

[Kbosch]

I think most people just had a deep belief in the Euro's accuracy inside that range. Like I said before...sad to lose our one reliable model.

We do, from all the times it said no to us and was, of course, right. This time under 100 hours it said game on once and then a second time in a huge way. Anyone, even the most pessimistic, had great reason to believe we were finally going to cash in. Model hugging hurts...even when it is the king.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 runs of the euro inside 100 hours

its a dagger, no doubt.

Absolutelty. A cursher. The great one has failed. It might have been the worst model on this whole storm overall

[H2Otown_WX]

I'm hoping something good comes out of this midweek retro-disaster and then we'll take a look at what the weekend has in store. It has to snow sometime.

Yeah, you could probably pick up like 3-5" in the retrograde. Next weekend definitely has potential I think the Euro had something too (albeit to our south) but I guess you can't get your hopes up if the models show something good until we're within 60 hrs based on how this winter is going.

[CoastalWx]

I think part of the problem is the anomalous pattern. We have huge blocking with fast flow underneath...no ridge in the west. Last year we had stronger blocking and ridging out west...this equals slower flow. The flow now is fast under the big GOA low and like Wes said in the main thread...we are getting bombarded with s/w's. Having that kind of flow will cause any little change in timing to have big differences down stream some 48-72 hrs.

[mattlacroix4]

It's pretty sad how quicly this place clears out like a bar at last call when the models show failure.

. . . On the other side, this place will fill up faster than a bar that's giving out free beer if the Euro shows something better for us in a little while.

Haha, exactly, I was thinking the same thing. The ones remaining are certainly either wishful or diehards. I think I would consider myself both..

[Logan11]

BTW...Andy never bought it. .. .of course the odds were always long in his ENY/WNE area.

It could still happen.

[wokeupthisam]

I think part of the problem is the anomalous pattern. We have huge blocking with fast flow underneath...no ridge in the west. last year we had stronger blocking and ridging out west...this equals slower flow. The flow now is fast under the big GOA low and like Wes said in the main thread...we are getting bombarded with s/w's. Having that kind of flow will cause any little change in timing to have big differences down stream some 48-72 hrs.

The disappointment so far has been that there haven't been ANY little changes in timing out 48-72hrs that have translated into a realized good result.

The upside of your observation is that something we don't see now could give us a nice surprise down the road.

[dryslot]

I think part of the problem is the anomalous pattern. We have huge blocking with fast flow underneath...no ridge in the west. Last year we had stronger blocking and ridging out west...this equals slower flow. The flow now is fast under the big GOA low and like Wes said in the main thread...we are getting bombarded with s/w's. Having that kind of flow will cause any little change in timing to have big differences down stream some 48-72 hrs.

So your saying there is still a chance.......

[CoastalWx]

BTW...Andy never bought it. .. .of course the odds were always long in his ENY/WNE area.

It depends on your location. I felt pretty good for my area..I admit, but what are you going to do. I had the OTS notion in mind, but I thought we could squeeze out a decent event anyways.