HoarfrostHubb Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 What the heck are we supposed to do in the meantime... Do the "model makers" ever explain why they think something changes so drasticlly one way or the other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 12:14 AM, CT Blizz said: Nothing to see on the Wed clipper or X=mas storm..Focus your hopes on the retro snow for a few inches on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 12:14 AM, CT Blizz said: Nothing to see on the Wed clipper or X=mas storm..Focus your hopes on the retro snow for a few inches on Tuesday The wed clipper and retro snow are pretty much one in the same I think. Different forcing mechanisms but in order for the event to deliver I think they need to work in tandem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Well, at least I can spend my day off (Monday) doing some local skiing instead of making perfect snowblower piles... I miss using my snowblower. Perhaps I can turn it into a planter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Gotta love the analog96 thread. What a trainwreck he is!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 12:19 AM, CT Rain said: Gotta love the analog96 thread. What a trainwreck he is!!! Makes zero sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 12:19 AM, CT Rain said: Gotta love the analog96 thread. What a trainwreck he is!!! I don't think he's even a met Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 12:17 AM, CT Rain said: The wed clipper and retro snow are pretty much one in the same I think. Different forcing mechanisms but in order for the event to deliver I think they need to work in tandem. I don't care if somehing jams north up our fannies..just give us some freaking snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On treadmill contemplating the possibilities of this turning around at 0z or it evolving into a collective model teabagging on new englanders as it dumps on the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 12:28 AM, CT Blizz said: I don't care if somehing jams north up our fannies..just give us some freaking snow Only 8 more days until the Christmas blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 12:19 AM, CoastalWx said: Makes zero sense. I could totally understand a weenie starting it... but a met??? Come on! I'm surprised nynjpademdvaweather didn't start replying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 We should set our sights on the Christmas storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 12:33 AM, CT Rain said: I could totally understand a weenie starting it... but a met??? Come on! I'm surprised nynjpademdvaweather didn't start replying. Highly anomalous patterns will produce some busts. That is a simple way of putting it. I have no clue what he is saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 12:36 AM, CoastalWx said: Highly anomalous patterns will produce some busts. That is a simple way of putting it. I have no clue what he is saying. Fast flow with a high anomalous blocking pattern complete with a PV retrograde of over 1000 miles lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 12:19 AM, CT Rain said: Gotta love the analog96 thread. What a trainwreck he is!!! With all due respect to him as a degreed met, I think he's an idiot. He had some horrible posts over at Eastern too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 12:38 AM, wxwatcher91 said: With all due respect to him as a degreed met, I think he's an idiot. He had some horrible posts over at Eastern too I used to just ignore his terrible posts but he went after me out of nowhere in a thread I didn't even know existed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On that thread, isn't the basic reason for the bust that the models had a poor handle on multiple shortwaves moving quickly? The timing between them was right for a bomb a couple runs but in reality it won't be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 sref is going to be more then 3 hours late whats the problem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 12:36 AM, CoastalWx said: Highly anomalous patterns will produce some busts. That is a simple way of putting it. I have no clue what he is saying. I am curious what the models were latching onto yesterday at initialization to cause such a radical change. Definitely some interesting post-mortem potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 Energy rotating from the Dakotas looked good at 0z but there is no stopping the southern energy. Amazing actually to see the 18hr ruc drop it in the identical spot as the 24 hr nam. We can't catch a break. Half hoping it may not matter if we can get more digging up north ( as relates to ema and ns) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 12:40 AM, Kbosch said: On that thread, isn't the basic reason for the bust that the models had a poor handle on multiple shortwaves moving quickly? The timing between them was right for a bomb a couple runs but in reality it won't be. I think the models basically just have a mancrush on developing big storms along the East Coast anytime the pattern is semi-favorable and a disturbance has a chance to phase is what it comes down to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 12:40 AM, Kbosch said: On that thread, isn't the basic reason for the bust that the models had a poor handle on multiple shortwaves moving quickly? The timing between them was right for a bomb a couple runs but in reality it won't be. IMO it's the southern complex just like last year. It's roaring so fast timing is almost impossible and it gets loose way east before the lakes energy can trap it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 12:42 AM, wxwatcher91 said: I am curious what the models were latching onto yesterday at initialization to cause such a radical change. Definitely some interesting post-mortem potential I have some ideas, but I think it was a combo of a few changes that resulted in such a different outcome with a volatile pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 12:41 AM, ineedsnow said: sref is going to be more then 3 hours late whats the problem? 15z SREFs are already out. 21z will be coming in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 12:40 AM, CT Rain said: I used to just ignore his terrible posts but he went after me out of nowhere in a thread I didn't even know existed. lol that's annoying. I just remember reading a couple of his forecast threads with absolutely ridiculous numbers that didn't make any sense in terms of amplitude or spacial distribution. I wonder what he does for work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 12:42 AM, SnowGoose69 said: I think the models basically just have a mancrush on developing big storms along the East Coast anytime the pattern is semi-favorable and a disturbance has a chance to phase is what it comes down to. On 12/18/2010 at 12:44 AM, messenger said: IMO it's the southern complex just like last year. It's roaring so fast timing is almost impossible and it gets loose way east before the lakes energy can trap it. and hmm, sure was fast. Thanks for the responses. I didn't read that thread, just his first post, and it reeks of ignorance of weather and the entire notion behind modeling. It's not magic. There is a reason why they are right or wrong. If someone like me, an idiot compared to many of you, can understand this and the basic causes of failure with handling this system then a "met" should be able to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 12:40 AM, CT Rain said: I used to just ignore his terrible posts but he went after me out of nowhere in a thread I didn't even know existed. lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 As is always the case when things have gone bad....the 0z RUC Init and 6h 18z NAM are about as close as possible at 500mb at 0z. Time to sharpen the forks I think. There's a bit of a difference up north with the main vortex...lobe of energy seems to want to be west of the NAM/GFS progs, but? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 The only thing keeping me sane anyway is that it's been cold. And that we had the snow event the other night. If it had been mild this Dec I def would have lost it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 18, 2010 Share Posted December 18, 2010 On 12/18/2010 at 1:23 AM, CT Blizz said: The only thing keeping me sane anyway is that it's been cold. And that we had the snow event the other night. If it had been mild this Dec I def would have lost it Here is our two feet of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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