The Drought Tracker

[Damage In Tolland]

As the dry pattern continues unabated, we need an official thread to discuss it, and track it. No rain is in sight thru the next 7 days. If May ends up dry as we head into June, we could be looking at some problems this summer.

 

Will it be dangerous or just dry?

 

Time will tell

[Cold Miser]

As the dry pattern continues unabated, we need an official thread to discuss it, and track it. No rain is in sight thru the next 7 days. If May ends up dry as we head into June, we could be looking at some problems this summer.

 

Will it be dangerous or just dry?

 

Time will tell

If so, will you not water your lawn?

[Quincy]

Bethel OEM ‏@BethelOEM45m

Fire Danger remains HIGH. No outdoor burning allowed. Use caution with discarded smoking materials.

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Hopefully we can keep this thread a troll free zone .

[weatherwiz]

When we get lots of convection in June the drought will be gone

[Quincy]

Special Weather Statement for the entire BOX forecast area:
 

934 AM EDT THU MAY 2 2013

 

...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

 

THE RECENT DRY WEATHER PATTERN HAS CREATED UNSAFE BURNING CONDITIONS CAUSING THE PRIMARY FUELS FOR WILDLAND FIRES OF DEAD GRASS...LEAVES AND BRUSH TO BECOME DANGEROUSLY DRY AND SUSCEPTIBLE TO IGNITION. IN ADDITION A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL BE MARKED BY AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE TIMING OF THIS WIND SHIFT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS RHODE ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...WESTERN-CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE IN THE DAY.

 

FIRE OFFICIALS IN CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND...MASSACHUSETTS AND NEW HAMPSHIRE DEPARTMENT OF FORESTS...PARKS AND RECREATION URGE PEOPLE TO BE AWARE OF THIS DANGER AND TAKE STEPS TO PREVENT WILDLAND FIRES FROM STARTING IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE MAJORITY OF WILDLAND FIRES ARE A RESULT OF ESCAPED FIRES FROM OPEN BURNING BY HOMEOWNERS. ALL OPEN BURNING MUST HAVE A PERMIT.

 

IN ADDITION TO OBTAINING A BURN PERMIT PEOPLE SHOULD...

 

CLEAR THE AREA AROUND A PILE OF ALL FLAMMABLE MATERIAL...NEVER LEAVE THE FIRE UNATTENDED...HAVE A HOSE AND TOOLS LIKE SHOVEL OR RAKE ON HAND...BURN ONLY NATURAL VEGETATIVE MATERIAL...AND CALL 911 IMMEDIATELY IF THINGS GET OUT OF CONTROL.

 

$$

 

NOCERA

[weatherwiz]

They can fly over snow from the Plains so Kevin can water his lawn.

[Damage In Tolland]

Mets,

When can we expect to see some soaking, substantial rains in SNE? Not showers, but rains that will help. Ideas?

[Quincy]

Mets,

When can we expect to see some soaking, substantial rains in SNE? Not showers, but rains that will help. Ideas?

The gradual eastward progression of the cut-off low over the Mississippi Valley will be interesting to watch. Should that low move offshore and slowly up the coast, as advertised by the 00z Euro and 06z GFS, the region could see a string of days with clouds and showers. Euro ensemble mean brings close to 1" of precipitation for parts of the area by day 10.

[Damage In Tolland]

I'd like to know when Forky thinks we'll see good rain. 2 weeks ago he was forecasting big rains for us with the ULL. Hopefully he hasn't changed that

[Brian5671]

I'd like to know when Forky thinks we'll see good rain. 2 weeks ago he was forecasting big rains for us with the ULL. Hopefully he hasn't changed that

Lotta bustin' going on with that...

[Quincy]

Severe short-term hydrologic drought conditions in portions of Tolland County accoridng to the USGS:

[joey2002]

Severe short-term hydrologic drought conditions in portions of Tolland County accoridng to the USGS:

 

That bright red dot is concerning...

[tamarack]

Nearest long-term COOP (Farmington) precip is running about 40% below the 1981-2010 numbers so far in 2013. However, there are still diurnal "snowmelt bumps" in streamflow on the two western Maine rivers nearby, so there's still some snow in the mts. Flows on these rivers, while well below medians, remain above the 25th percentile. Surfaces/fine fuels are very dry and bound to get drier over the next week plus, but groundwater isn't an issue here and won't become one unless the Jan-Apr pattern runs into midsummer.

[Sugarloaf1989]

Connecticut streamflow data site:

 

http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ct/nwis/current/?type=flow

 

 

The Willimantic is the main river around here and it's low, but not historically so.

 

Interesting on how the historic low was in 1985 at the tail end of the 1984-1985 drought:

 

http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ct/nwis/uv/?site_no=01119500&PARAmeter_cd=00065,00060

[dendrite]

This thread is a great idea. Let's keep all dryness and drought posts in this thread and out of the others.

[Damage In Tolland]

Lord

 

...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

THE RECENT DRY WEATHER PATTERN HAS CREATED UNSAFE BURNING
CONDITIONS CAUSING THE PRIMARY FUELS FOR WILDLAND FIRES OF DEAD
GRASS...LEAVES AND BRUSH TO BECOME DANGEROUSLY DRY AND SUSCEPTIBLE
TO IGNITION. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT
INLAND FROM THE COAST.

FIRE OFFICIALS IN CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND...MASSACHUSETTS AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE DEPARTMENT OF FORESTS...PARKS AND RECREATION URGE
PEOPLE TO BE AWARE OF THIS DANGER AND TAKE STEPS TO PREVENT
WILDLAND FIRES FROM STARTING IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE MAJORITY OF
WILDLAND FIRES ARE A RESULT OF ESCAPED FIRES FROM OPEN BURNING BY
HOMEOWNERS. ALL OPEN BURNING MUST HAVE A PERMIT.

IN ADDITION TO OBTAINING A BURN PERMIT PEOPLE SHOULD...

[Mr Torchey]

Kevin, thank you fro starting this thread........we have been outlining the issues for a couple weeks now wile Moosup Ct is water logged.

 

 

If you are a smoker please extinguish your butt's in a proper way, thank you from all of us.

[Ginx snewx]

Kevin, thank you fro starting this thread........we have been outlining the issues for a couple weeks now wile Moosup Ct is water logged.

 

 

If you are a smoker please extinguish your butt's in a proper way, thank you from all of us.

No need to troll Mr Feely Touchy

[Mr Torchey]

No need to troll Mr Feely Touchy

I learned from the best:) Have you snuck away to Miz for a little salt air?

[Ginx snewx]

I learned from the best:) Have you snuck away to Miz for a little salt air?

it looks fantastic compared to the last time I saw it, heavy heavy beach action. All models show rain Wed to Friday. Back to your regularly scheduled program. Dry begat wet.

[Mr Torchey]

it looks fantastic compared to the last time I saw it, heavy heavy beach action. All models show rain Wed to Friday. Back to your regularly scheduled program. Dry begat wet.

Nice avatar!

[Ginx snewx]

Nice avatar!

Hope to see lots of those this year, picked up some new flippers, offshore hurricane season swells could be great.

[Damage In Tolland]

it looks fantastic compared to the last time I saw it, heavy heavy beach action. All models show rain Wed to Friday. Back to your regularly scheduled program. Dry begat wet.

* CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS INCREASE WED INTO FRI BUT

STILL NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL EXPECTED

[Mr Torchey]

Hope to see lots of those this year, picked up some new flippers, offshore hurricane season swells could be great.

Nice! I hope we get a nice recurver in mid August down in PI with a light off shore wind we have had some pretty epic swell the last two summers.

[Cold Miser]

 

Lord

 

...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...

THE RECENT DRY WEATHER PATTERN HAS CREATED UNSAFE BURNING

CONDITIONS CAUSING THE PRIMARY FUELS FOR WILDLAND FIRES OF DEAD

GRASS...LEAVES AND BRUSH TO BECOME DANGEROUSLY DRY AND SUSCEPTIBLE

TO IGNITION. NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO

DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT

INLAND FROM THE COAST.

FIRE OFFICIALS IN CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND...MASSACHUSETTS AND

NEW HAMPSHIRE DEPARTMENT OF FORESTS...PARKS AND RECREATION URGE

PEOPLE TO BE AWARE OF THIS DANGER AND TAKE STEPS TO PREVENT

WILDLAND FIRES FROM STARTING IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE MAJORITY OF

WILDLAND FIRES ARE A RESULT OF ESCAPED FIRES FROM OPEN BURNING BY

HOMEOWNERS. ALL OPEN BURNING MUST HAVE A PERMIT.

IN ADDITION TO OBTAINING A BURN PERMIT PEOPLE SHOULD...

 

 

 

* CLOUDS AND THREAT FOR SOME SHOWERS INCREASE WED INTO FRI BUT

STILL NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL EXPECTED

...We need someone to keep up the fear mongering.  Thanks in advance for carrying that torch.

Luckily I have weeks and weeks of freeze dried food.

[Allsnow]

Hopefully our lawns survive

[powderfreak]

This thread is a great idea. Let's keep all dryness and drought posts in this thread and out of the others.

Yeah nice idea...would expect all mods to move the drought/dry posts in here.

Given that it looks sunny for the next 7 days, time for copy and paste posts each day.

Could be worse, it could be pouring rain and 50 degrees each day...with widespread flooding which is actually dangerous and has some real impacts on people's lives and property.

[Ginx snewx]

Relief from this damaging disaster to the top 4 inches of the ground is on its way, 5 days away. Just in time to prevent a disaster of epic proportions to some grass.

[tamarack]

Connecticut streamflow data site:

 

http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ct/nwis/current/?type=flow

Thanks for the link. It revealed that CT has the same number of reporting locations, 76, as does Maine - less acreage but more people.

FYI: Substituting one's own state's 2-letter abbrev in place of "ct" allows wider browsing.  Maine reports currently have the Sandy at/below 25th percentile, and the Carrabasset not showing the snowmelt bump.  Must mean that remaining snow on C-bass drainage is down to scattered patches plus 'Loaf snowmaking area.  Since snowmaking probably covers about 500 acres tops and the river's drainage area at the North Anson gauge is 353 sq.mi., those snowpiles won't make much difference.

Could be worse, it could be pouring rain and 50 degrees each day...with widespread flooding which is actually dangerous and has some real impacts on people's lives and property.

 

 

Perhaps worse, or at least more frustrating, are days of endless cold dz, where after 4-5 days total precip is about 0.28", so the garden dies from both mildew and drought.