WinterWxLuvr Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Looks like some humid 90's are on the way somewhere around the 20th. I plan on complaining a lot too. Where are you seeing that? I'm not seeing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Where are you seeing that? I'm not seeing it. Next Monday looks like it would be hot/humid, but with a good chance of thunderstorms and maybe even "severe" that day, not sure we hit the 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Where are you seeing that? I'm not seeing it. Just basing it off of various looks of ridging centered off the se coast in the 7-10 day range and pretty strong sw ul and surface flow. It's that time of year too. I could be totally wrong and hopefully so but I have a hunch we're gonna get some hot days and if the ridge has an anchor it could stick for a bit. I typically don't pay a lot of attention to the lr outside of winter but I've picked up on some things this year. Especially with the gfs. When it keeps showing the same general idea at h5 at least once a day in the lr odds seem to favor it actually happening. This cool shot was modeled 10 days in advance. So was the cutoff. If we do get the troughing out west that Ian is dying for then it's safe to assume that a nice ridge sets up down stream. Haven't seen any hints at a backdoor coming down. Jet is looking to stay up well north of the Canadian border after the current airmass moves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Next Monday looks like it would be hot/humid, but with a good chance of thunderstorms and maybe even "severe" that day, not sure we hit the 90s. It's just a hunch honestly. Looking at the fairly strong sw flow that keeps showing up and considering the time of year I think it would = low 90's even if the models aren't showing it yet. We overperform with heat very well in these parts. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 We overperform with heat very well in these parts. lol True dat...but this spring seems different so far. Probs will depend on how much sun we get those couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 True dat...but this spring seems different so far. Probs will depend on how much sun we get those couple days. I think the period from late next week trough the end of the month is going to bake us a little. Good grief I hope I'm wrong but all good things have to come to an end. After the heat and fropa next week it looks prime to warm up. Globals are trying to dig another trough down to our latitude sometime mid-late next week but I think it's going to miss N because of a the potential for a dominant western trough. This should stoke ian's fire a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 ^^ 12z gfs says I'm an idiot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 bob...seems to me that it might be as hard to dislodge this pattern as it has been to dislodge the heat patterns of the last few springs/summers. In the last few years, anyway, when something locks in, it really locks in. Maybe we can stay seasonal a bit longer at any rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 ^^ 12z gfs says I'm an idiot. The GFS is not to be believed outside like day 5-7. Given the pattern of late hard to expect unabated ridging but the ensembles all like more western troughing. Kinda just shifts the trough up here north.. Or we just lakes vortex forever but I kinda doubt it given the flow is still pretty fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Or we just lakes vortex forever but I kinda doubt it given the flow is still pretty fast. That's the part of the 12z run that surprised me. Sure, a flatter or more progressive flow instead of a firm se ridge seems like an easy possibility but the potential for another lakes vortex with cool dry continental air in these parts kinda surprised me. I won't complain at all from a sensible wx standpoint but I just resigned to the fact that the current airmass is the last hurrah. It still might be but heat seems to wanna be elusive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 That's the part of the 12z run that surprised me. Sure, a flatter or more progressive flow instead of a firm se ridge seems like an easy possibility but the potential for another lakes vortex with cool dry continental air in these parts kinda surprised me. I won't complain at all from a sensible wx standpoint but I just resigned to the fact that the current airmass is the last hurrah. It still might be but heat seems to wanna be elusive. It fits what we've seen so certainly a possibility. The long range has been super awful lately though so who knows. Usually you do see these patterns try to even out by flipping every now and then. I don't think we see a wholesale flip per se but I do wonder about another lengthy thing like that. We saw similar modeled for this weekend's potential event out west initially, and the vortex more or less killing it, and now that seems less likely. I could see a case where warmth is generally periodic mixed with some nicer intrusions of air for a while still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 It fits what we've seen so certainly a possibility. The long range has been super awful lately though so who knows. Usually you do see these patterns try to even out by flipping every now and then. I don't think we see a wholesale flip per se but I do wonder about another lengthy thing like that. We saw similar modeled for this weekend's potential event out west initially, and the vortex more or less killing it, and now that seems less likely. I could see a case where warmth is generally periodic mixed with some nicer intrusions of air for a while still. I think the models have done ok with our neck of the woods. Especially with fairly deep ml troughs in our parts. 12z euro also really likes the idea of a gl vortex late next week. If that keeps showing up for a couple more days then we can almost book it. I'll root for it. A coolish mem day weekend is fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 I think the models have done ok with our neck of the woods. Especially with fairly deep ml troughs in our parts. 12z euro also really likes the idea of a gl vortex late next week. If that keeps showing up for a couple more days then we can almost book it. I'll root for it. A coolish mem day weekend is fine with me. Amen to that last sentence. Then, if we could be saying a coolish 4th of July is fine with me .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Maybe you'll get some 99% days..... too bad it's subject to change of course but i like the general idea. not sure we lock into a long term EC ridge but the western troughing signal has really exploded across guidance the past few days. the 0z gfs was dirty... oh so dirty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Sorry, but the weather the last couple of days has been pretty terrible. Walked by the athletic fields where kids were playing lacrosse tonight. Everyone bundled up in coats and under blankets. 51 degrees, with a wind chill lower than that on May 13... nothing good about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 I think the models have done ok with our neck of the woods. Especially with fairly deep ml troughs in our parts. 12z euro also really likes the idea of a gl vortex late next week. If that keeps showing up for a couple more days then we can almost book it. I'll root for it. A coolish mem day weekend is fine with me. Well, maybe to a degree. It's not like they've been showing torch and we've been getting troughed instead. Overall I think the lakes/hudson bay vortex is being overmodeled in the long range tho it's certainly apparent. I think an overall omega block look for a while is fairly likely. This area might end up more on the border between building warmth in the southern U.S. and the NW flow regime. Potentially scary pattern (boom or bust chasing) but better than what it has been. I do think there will prob be some decent heat bursts the next few weeks but no signal for sustained heat around here yet really. Is 15 below in July cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Is 15 below in July cold? 81/62 instead of the "normal" 96/77 sounds pretty good to me. You guys will get into the goods but it's going to require some really good analysis and some long drives imo. Things will fire off but the favorable conditions will be on the move. Pretty boring drive between s central OK and and eastern IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Sorry, but the weather the last couple of days has been pretty terrible. Walked by the athletic fields where kids were playing lacrosse tonight. Everyone bundled up in coats and under blankets. 51 degrees, with a wind chill lower than that on May 13... nothing good about that. You're out of your mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 You're out of your mindToday's a bit cold. Especially with the sun setting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Sorry, but the weather the last couple of days has been pretty terrible. Walked by the athletic fields where kids were playing lacrosse tonight. Everyone bundled up in coats and under blankets. 51 degrees, with a wind chill lower than that on May 13... nothing good about that. Nah. It's good and shortens the number of days of heat before September. And, it could always be worse. Negative wind chills in the NNE mountains. http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/conditions.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 You're out of your mind Today's a bit cold. Especially with the sun setting. Cold? You're crazy too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 You're out of your mind It's May 13, not March 13. I, along with others, don't find it pleasant to be outside in low 50s temperatures on a late mid-May afternoon. Other than the kids playing, everyone at that game had coats on. Edit: Average high temperature for today is 76 degrees. That is more pleasant than 56 degrees (which was our high today) with a cold NW wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Nah. It's good and shortens the number of days of heat before September. And, it could always be worse. Negative wind chills in the NNE mountains. http://www.mountwashington.org/weather/conditions.php The conditions on that mountain are amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 It's May 13, not March 13. I, along with others, don't find it pleasant to be outside in low 50s temperatures on a late mid-May afternoon. Other than the kids playing, everyone at that game had coats on. It was mid 50's here with sun, and I thought it felt great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 It was mid 50's here with sun, and I thought it felt great. I just don't understand you guys. The only thing I like about cold weather is snow. Didn't bother me much when I was younger, but as I've gotten older, I've found cold weather to be less and less comfortable. That's pretty common, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 It was pretty chilly/cold this evening especially around sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Eh. Too windy. Otherwise it would have been a fine day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 SUnset looked more like October than May. Where'd the haze go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 Counting on CAA to keep the new plants from freezing. Can't recall the last year BWI hit freezing this late in spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted May 14, 2013 Share Posted May 14, 2013 beautiful day...60/20 in mid afternoon is sunny air mass in mid May? so good best spring ever continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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