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May 2013 Obs/Banter/Complaining/Sarcasm


Ellinwood

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Starting to look like this is the last shot of cool, dry, continental air for a while. Today and tomorrow are 10's. It's all down hill from there.

yeah baby

 

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Best spring ever. Pretty much every weekend has been killer.

It is going to be funny when we finish 0 to +1 for MAM and everyone talks about how frigid spring was.

Awesome spring. Right now running about -1.3 here for the period. Would have to average about 4.5 above the rest of the way to get the 3 month above zero, which is entirely possible.

Just a little concerned about tomorrow night. Forecast keeps getting lower. Probably won't do much damage at 30-31 unless it's there for a long time, which I doubt.

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Havent you posted a 500 map before that showed that and it hasnt happened yet? :lol::P

OTOH, Today is a top 10, the breeze is awesome highest gust here so far has been 32 mph. 62*. Great day for sure

I don't think so but I have expressed a wish for that map.
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yeah baby

I think you guys are in good shape coming up. Models have been pretty good with h5 in the lr lately.

The last cutoff and this cool down we're in now was sniffed out pretty well even @ d10+. It's almost expected to flip to an ec ridge this time of year. Especially on the heels of such a stretch of overall aob temps.

Take lots of pics of the supercells and ef4's.

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I think you guys are in good shape coming up. Models have been pretty good with h5 in the lr lately.

The last cutoff and this cool down we're in now was sniffed out pretty well even @ d10+. It's almost expected to flip to an ec ridge this time of year. Especially on the heels of such a stretch of overall aob temps.

Take lots of pics of the supercells and ef4's.

 

Yeah.. I'm cautiously optimistic. Just gut feelings based on what the pattern has looked like makes me think we've gotta go the other way at least for a while.  Ensembles were sniffing something out here and there but the ops all seem to be going toward some period of more western troughing.. tho something like the Euro might keep the axis a bit east of prime territory after any weekend event.  Would be nice to run into a big day or two right off the bat. Weekend might have the most potential of the season which isn't necessarily saying much.

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GFS 300 hour forecasts work out well in winter. ;)

 

models are usually pretty good at sniffing out a ridge.  plus without looking at models you can bank on a ridge around memorial day.  im not booking it yet.. things have been extra chaotic past d5-7 recently.. but i think there's probably more warmth relative to norm than not ahead in the coming weeks. 

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models are usually pretty good at sniffing out a ridge. plus without looking at models you can bank on a ridge around memorial day. im not booking it yet.. things have been extra chaotic past d5-7 recently.. but i think there's probably more warmth relative to norm than not ahead in the coming weeks.

Just giving you a hard time. You didn't take the bait.

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Awesome spring. Right now running about -1.3 here for the period. Would have to average about 4.5 above the rest of the way to get the 3 month above zero, which is entirely possible.

Just a little concerned about tomorrow night. Forecast keeps getting lower. Probably won't do much damage at 30-31 unless it's there for a long time, which I doubt.

 

after the next 2 days, we will have to average around +3.5 from May 15-31 to get to even for MAM...GFS is pretty bullish on heat....euro not so much by this weekend...my fear is we get to 86-88 this week and me and you start to wilt and melt

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after the next 2 days, we will have to average around +3.5 from May 15-31 to get to even for MAM...GFS is pretty bullish on heat....euro not so much by this weekend...my fear is we get to 86-88 this week and me and you start to wilt and melt

What's DCA running as of today in terms of below normal?

 

I don't know if we can do it here, but if we pull a neg this month, that's 6 of the last 9 below normal.

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I'm looking forward to one last night with lows in the 30's.

This has been one of the best springs I can remember. I enjoyed mowing the lawn today. Warm sun and no sweat.

Maybe we catch a break this summer and keep the 95+ days to a minimum.

That long range east coast ridge isn't looking too spiffy on the long range 18z GFS.  The longer we can go without heat, the less time between us and September.

 

Only 40 days until that sun starts its trek back down too!

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That long range east coast ridge isn't looking too spiffy on the long range 18z GFS. The longer we can go without heat, the less time between us and September.

Only 40 days until that sun starts its trek back down too!

I hope the real heat holds off till 2016. Lol

Time will tell bit I think the odds are really stacked towards a stretch of +10 highs or more coming up in a week or so. I have a feeling the globals are starting to key in on a lw pattern shift towards sw flow and humid heat to close out May.

Maybe we get lucky with a backdoor front and ne flow but I'm pretty sure the delightful airmass we have now is the last one for a while. Maybe months.

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maybe saturday.. the LR looks awesome.. lots of western troughing. days and days of tornadoes.

Sure is looking good for you guys now. Hopefully the pattern doesn't hit and run. I think it's going to hand around a bit but that's just a wag. I suppose I can suffer some humid 90's so you can collect softball hail and see tornados so big that they suck the hubcaps off the car from a mile away.

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Sure is looking good for you guys now. Hopefully the pattern doesn't hit and run. I think it's going to hand around a bit but that's just a wag. I suppose I can suffer some humid 90's so you can collect softball hail and see tornados so big that they suck the hubcaps off the car from a mile away.

 

too bad it's subject to change of course but i like the general idea. not sure we lock into a long term EC ridge but the western troughing signal has really exploded across guidance the past few days.  the 0z gfs was dirty... oh so dirty.

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