OKpowdah Posted May 1, 2013 Share Posted May 1, 2013 This is quite an anomalous situation being forecast. Model guidance has actually been quite good with projecting this general development for several days now, but of course when it comes something like this unfolding, there will be a lot of spread in the specifics. Unfortunately I have no time to talk about much of anything with finals approaching quickly, but I wanted to see if we could get some discussion on what might shape up to be a historic event (meteorologically, not necessarily sensible weather) GFS: NAM: ECMWF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted May 1, 2013 Share Posted May 1, 2013 just to add a bit of fuel to the fire.... here's the latest snowfall total extrapolation from the 12z Canadian regional output, going out 48 hours... the amounts shown are liquid equivalent, so you'll have to extrapolate snow totals from that... http://weather.gc.ca/data/prog/regional/2013050112/2013050112_054_R1_centrecan_I_QPFTYPES_sn_048.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 1, 2013 Author Share Posted May 1, 2013 12z GFS is even more amplified and further south with the cutoff. Anyone have analogs close to something like this at such a low latitude in early May? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 1, 2013 Author Share Posted May 1, 2013 Check out this 1000mb temp anomaly along the TX Gulf coast! Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 1, 2013 Share Posted May 1, 2013 An interesting gap wind that can form during strong density surges through the GOM, the tehuantepecer. This, of crouse, is actually not that uncommon of a gap wind, but it is interesting. Impressive to see this in May. Plains chasers shudder. http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/pubs/schultzetal97.PDF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted May 1, 2013 Share Posted May 1, 2013 Friday may become the coldest day on record for my site for May. Coldest recorded May low is 9C (48F), but with a high of 26C(80F) on 05/03/2004. This time it will be cloudy with strong CAA. To put it in perspective, Jan 5-12th has the coldest average days at 68/46 ... quite similar to what's forecasted for friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 1, 2013 Share Posted May 1, 2013 Friday may become the coldest day on record for my site for May. Coldest recorded May low is 9C (48F), but with a high of 26C(80F) on 05/03/2004. This time it will be cloudy with strong CAA. To put it in perspective, Jan 5-12th has the coldest average days at 68/46 ... quite similar to what's forecasted for friday. Weren't you guys well above 100 F back in early April, too? I know I saw some 106-108 readings on the TX side right before the crashing front that plastered half the SP with ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 Weren't you guys well above 100 F back in early April, too? I know I saw some 106-108 readings on the TX side right before the crashing front that plastered half the SP with ice. Yep, 107F Apr 15th. Just 95F today at MMMY and 100f at MMAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 Walk outside this morning and get blased with Rain/Sleet/Snow (just started to accumulate on the grass). Now I see the total snow forecasted for my area went up pretty substantially overnight to 3-5" and locally higher amounts today. Already historic for Iowa. First time there has been an at least an inch reported anywhere in the state since 1967 and multiple inches of snow having occurred only 10 times over the past 125 years anywhere in the state. *edit* Another perspective of how historic this is from DMX's Facebook page. Last time the city of Des Moines recorded over an inch of snow in May was in 1907. So far the airport is over an inch. Pretty sure MBY is closer to 2". Problem is that it's not piling up as quickly today even with it coming down at a good rate due to ground temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 Here's what my Dad in Badger, IA was dealing with this morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 Hardest hit in Iowa was definitely the north-central part. The SE quarter of MN got hit pretty good as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 Car topper in Kansas City http://www.kctv5.com/category/212727/safe-auto-city-cams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 Car topper in Kansas City http://www.kctv5.com/category/212727/safe-auto-city-cams That's a thing of beauty. I'd be lovin' it, especially knowing that we'll be baking in upper 90's heat soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 2, 2013 Share Posted May 2, 2013 Zumbrota, MN (a bit north of Rochester) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 Hardest hit in Iowa was definitely the north-central part. All time record for snowfall (day and month) in May for Iowa broken with that 11" (old record 10"). This is something to remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted May 3, 2013 Share Posted May 3, 2013 Only the 3rd time in recorded history it has snowed in May with an official 1" in TOP... accompanied by 1.42" of rain. Hopefully this liquid helps to fight the drought. The Kaw River is flowing 2.5 feet higher than it was 24 hrs ago at 6.7 feet (flood stage is 26 feet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 4, 2013 Author Share Posted May 4, 2013 How do you like that for a forecast sounding for Birmingham, AL in early May? Tropopause just above 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 4, 2013 Author Share Posted May 4, 2013 12z sounding from Springfield, MO ... tropopause below 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 How do you like that for a forecast sounding for Birmingham, AL in early May? Tropopause just above 500mb GFS_3_2013050400_F45_32.5000N_86.5000W.png And lapse rates were doing good until you hit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozarkwx Posted May 4, 2013 Share Posted May 4, 2013 Almost our biggest snow of the year, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 5, 2013 Share Posted May 5, 2013 meanwhile in Arkansas.jpg Almost our biggest snow of the year, lol. This photo was taken by someone in Colorado Springs earlier in the week but still it's insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 5, 2013 Author Share Posted May 5, 2013 546dm low in northern Mississippi ... pretty amazing for early May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 6, 2013 Author Share Posted May 6, 2013 Birmingham, AL last night tropopause below 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 6, 2013 Author Share Posted May 6, 2013 Beautiful water vapor loop of this thing wrapping up http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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