Bob Chill Posted July 25, 2013 Author Share Posted July 25, 2013 It means a lot. Enso regions don't suddenly not matter because there is no anomaly. They don't know that. It is a wide basin and it is going to affect our weather no matter what the temperature is. Your post implies that neutral behaves with some sort of predictable influence on our winters. I suppose it does to some extent because expecting an active stj and southern dominant storm track is fools gold. I've never really analyzed neutral years by themselves trying to find a pattern or clue unless they followed on the heels of a nino/nina. The only early guess I can make at this point is to not expect +climo snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 26, 2013 Share Posted July 26, 2013 Your post implies that neutral behaves with some sort of predictable influence on our winters. I suppose it does to some extent because expecting an active stj and southern dominant storm track is fools gold. I've never really analyzed neutral years by themselves trying to find a pattern or clue unless they followed on the heels of a nino/nina. The only early guess I can make at this point is to not expect +climo snow. If neutral behaves the same as Nina, then there is no Nina pattern or neutral pattern. There is only a Niño pattern or non Niño pattern. So, assuming there is an actual difference in the two, wouldn't a neutral pattern have to be somewhere between the two, and, thus, improving our chances at getting at least a somewhat "more" active southern stream increasing our chances of timing up some meaningful precip with cold air? I'm sure if I'm way off base you or someone will correct me. Also, aren't we coming off a neutral and most likely heading toward another. Wouldn't Nina effects have to fade over time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 Luckily forecasting the winter is still 90% guesswork and a single fluke that is impossible to predict often makes the entire winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 Luckily forecasting the winter is still 90% guesswork and a single fluke that is impossible to predict often makes the entire winter. Totally agree on snowfall. A couple of storms can make a world of difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 Luckily forecasting the winter is still 90% guesswork and a single fluke that is impossible to predict often makes the entire winter. aside from winters like 95/96, 02/03 and 09/10, any 4-6"+snow event around here is a fluke I just wish I could accept that fact and move on in my life every winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 aside from winters like 95/96, 02/03 and 09/10, any 4-6"+snow event around here is a fluke I just wish I could accept that fact and move on in my life every winter 4-6 inch events are now less common than 20 inch storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 I think we will have a decent to good winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 27, 2013 Share Posted July 27, 2013 Next winter is such a disaster LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted July 28, 2013 Share Posted July 28, 2013 LOL Ji is snow-polar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 northern stream dominance with a bad/dry storm track, and a -PDO Don Sutherland did a nice post on our enso odds based strictly on stats and on the statistical models. They seem to be pointing towards a nina or cold neutral enso. Couple that with a neg pdo and low Glaam and it's not very encouraging for us. Hopefully, OCt snowcover or something will help push us to a neg ao though I don't think I'd count on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Don Sutherland did a nice post on our enso odds based strictly on stats and on the statistical models. They seem to be pointing towards a nina or cold neutral enso. Couple that with a neg pdo and low Glaam and it's not very encouraging for us. Hopefully, OCt snowcover or something will help push us to a neg ao though I don't think I'd count on it. nail in the coffin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Don Sutherland did a nice post on our enso odds based strictly on stats and on the statistical models. They seem to be pointing towards a nina or cold neutral enso. Couple that with a neg pdo and low Glaam and it's not very encouraging for us. Hopefully, OCt snowcover or something will help push us to a neg ao though I don't think I'd count on it. Time of death for winter 13/14 12:29 p.m. July 29th . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 LOL. Lots of panic considering its July. A good winter doesn't have to be likely in order for it to happen. For those in the cities, can you imagine a winter worse than the last two? A complete shutout maybe? I didn't realize we had forecast tools that were dead on 6 months in advance. Must not be paying attention. Wonder what percentages even the best forecasters would place on below, avg, and above wrt temps and snow for Dec/Jan/Feb 5 to 7 months in advance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Luckily forecasting the winter is still 90% guesswork and a single fluke that is impossible to predict often makes the entire winter. it depends what you mean by "make the winter"..... something like 1/25/00, 2/11/06, 1/26/11 are certainly possible...Did those make the winter? I think you could definitely argue that...I also think getting a fluke to make the winter is more likely in a Nina than a neutral after nina...I think a big winter is pretty much off the table.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 LOL. Lots of panic considering its July. A good winter doesn't have to be likely in order for it to happen. For those in the cities, can you imagine a winter worse than the last two? A complete shutout maybe? I didn't realize we had forecast tools that were dead on 6 months in advance. Must not be paying attention. Wonder what percentages even the best forecasters would place on below, avg, and above wrt temps and snow for Dec/Jan/Feb 5 to 7 months in advance? I don't know that I am one of the best...probably not....but Temps Below/Average/Above -25/25/50 Snow Below/Average/Above - 60/25/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Don Sutherland did a nice post on our enso odds based strictly on stats and on the statistical models. They seem to be pointing towards a nina or cold neutral enso. Couple that with a neg pdo and low Glaam and it's not very encouraging for us. Hopefully, OCt snowcover or something will help push us to a neg ao though I don't think I'd count on it. I don't mind it....we are going to set the bar low and so might be pleasantly surprised if we get an 8-12" winter at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 Don Sutherland did a nice post on our enso odds based strictly on stats and on the statistical models. They seem to be pointing towards a nina or cold neutral enso. Couple that with a neg pdo and low Glaam and it's not very encouraging for us. Hopefully, OCt snowcover or something will help push us to a neg ao though I don't think I'd count on it. HM said we'd be better off with a NINA than neutral, so I guess I'm rooting for a NINA notwithstanding the bad taste in my mouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 I don't mind it....we are going to set the bar low and so might be pleasantly surprised if we get an 8-12" winter at DCA Even in what should be bad years there is a one in 4 or 5 chance of doing OK so it's not a lock that it ends up really bad as we alwasy could luck out and get a big storm to skew things. Still I'd prefer a moderate nino with a negative AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 29, 2013 Share Posted July 29, 2013 although early, sea ice looks better than it has for a few years fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 lol http://weatheradvance.com/preliminary-winter-2013-2014-winter-outlook/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 lol http://weatheradvance.com/preliminary-winter-2013-2014-winter-outlook/ Jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 lol http://weatheradvance.com/preliminary-winter-2013-2014-winter-outlook/ The person who wrote that must be from Winchester. We'd better start stocking up now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 Why do we have to bellow average? What if I want to bellow more than that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 5, 2013 Share Posted August 5, 2013 Your post implies that neutral behaves with some sort of predictable influence on our winters. I suppose it does to some extent because expecting an active stj and southern dominant storm track is fools gold. I've never really analyzed neutral years by themselves trying to find a pattern or clue unless they followed on the heels of a nino/nina. The only early guess I can make at this point is to not expect +climo snow. That's essentially how a neutral ENSO influences the pattern...it means we usually do not have an active STJ which is a big deal for DCA snowfall. It also slightly reduces the chance at huge PNA ridging. You can still get big winters in neutral ENSO, but its going against the odds which say big winters in DC are stacked with El Nino years. If you take the zwyts approach and lower the bar to something like a couple solid cold outbreaks and average snowfall...then you can achieve that for sure a lot easier than a big time winter. Years like '67-'68 (sans the fluke November snow), '84-'85, '85-'86, or '05-'06 (maybe a colder version) are probably what to aim for. You might get lucky and get an '81-'82, '66-'67, '60-'61, '78-'79, '95-'96 type winter but those neutrals (or weak Nina in the case of '95-'96) came after big El Ninos or in a several year period of neutral after El Nino...that's probably not a coincidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 Why do we have to bellow average? What if I want to bellow more than that? I don't know about you, but my trust level skyrockets for the science knowledge someone has who can't spell below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 CFS2 has sure changed its tune. Had historical cold a few weeks ago. Now dead warm http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Sea.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 CFS2 has sure changed its tune. Had historical cold a few weeks ago. Now dead warm http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Sea.html this was the CFS2 early last week http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me2Sea.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 this was the CFS2 early last week http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me2Sea.html I'm thinking that after the model ingests the updated 00Z data from today, things will look a lot better. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 6, 2013 Share Posted August 6, 2013 I'm thinking that after the model ingests the updated 00Z data from today, things will look a lot better. MDstorm yeah, the CFS2 is up and down a few times before the target season actually arrives but the real beauty of it is that it can be used by everyone, no matter their perspective/forecast, if you just wait a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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