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2013-14 MA Winter Disco - 'cause it's never too early.


Bob Chill

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Luckily forecasting the winter is still 90% guesswork and a single fluke that is impossible to predict often makes the entire winter.

aside from winters like 95/96, 02/03 and 09/10, any 4-6"+snow event around here is a fluke

I just wish I could accept that fact and move on in my life every winter

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northern stream dominance with a bad/dry storm track, and a -PDO

Don Sutherland did a nice post on our enso odds based strictly on stats and on the statistical models.  They seem to be pointing towards a nina or cold neutral enso.  Couple that with a neg pdo and low Glaam and it's not very encouraging for us.  Hopefully, OCt snowcover or something will help push us to a neg ao though I don't think I'd count on it. 

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Don Sutherland did a nice post on our enso odds based strictly on stats and on the statistical models.  They seem to be pointing towards a nina or cold neutral enso.  Couple that with a neg pdo and low Glaam and it's not very encouraging for us.  Hopefully, OCt snowcover or something will help push us to a neg ao though I don't think I'd count on it. 

 

nail in the coffin

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Don Sutherland did a nice post on our enso odds based strictly on stats and on the statistical models.  They seem to be pointing towards a nina or cold neutral enso.  Couple that with a neg pdo and low Glaam and it's not very encouraging for us.  Hopefully, OCt snowcover or something will help push us to a neg ao though I don't think I'd count on it. 

Time of death for winter 13/14 12:29 p.m. July 29th :cry: .

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LOL.

Lots of panic considering its July. A good winter doesn't have to be likely in order for it to happen. For those in the cities, can you imagine a winter worse than the last two? A complete shutout maybe?

I didn't realize we had forecast tools that were dead on 6 months in advance. Must not be paying attention. Wonder what percentages even the best forecasters would place on below, avg, and above wrt temps and snow for Dec/Jan/Feb 5 to 7 months in advance?

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Don Sutherland did a nice post on our enso odds based strictly on stats and on the statistical models.  They seem to be pointing towards a nina or cold neutral enso.  Couple that with a neg pdo and low Glaam and it's not very encouraging for us.  Hopefully, OCt snowcover or something will help push us to a neg ao though I don't think I'd count on it. 

HM said we'd be better off with a NINA than neutral, so I guess I'm rooting for a NINA notwithstanding the bad taste in my mouth

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I don't mind it....we are going to set the bar low and so might be pleasantly surprised if we get an 8-12" winter at DCA

 

Even in what should be bad years there is a one in 4 or 5 chance of doing OK so it's not a lock that it ends up really bad as we alwasy could luck out and get a big storm to skew things.  Still I'd prefer a moderate nino with a negative AO. 

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Your post implies that neutral behaves with some sort of predictable influence on our winters. I suppose it does to some extent because expecting an active stj and southern dominant storm track is fools gold. I've never really analyzed neutral years by themselves trying to find a pattern or clue unless they followed on the heels of a nino/nina. The only early guess I can make at this point is to not expect +climo snow.

 

 

That's essentially how a neutral ENSO influences the pattern...it means we usually do not have an active STJ which is a big deal for DCA snowfall. It also slightly reduces the chance at huge PNA ridging.

 

You can still get big winters in neutral ENSO, but its going against the odds which say big winters in DC are stacked with El Nino years. If you take the zwyts approach and lower the bar to something like a couple solid cold outbreaks and average snowfall...then you can achieve that for sure a lot easier than a big time winter. Years like '67-'68 (sans the fluke November snow), '84-'85, '85-'86, or '05-'06 (maybe a colder version) are probably what to aim for.

 

You might get lucky and get an '81-'82, '66-'67, '60-'61, '78-'79, '95-'96 type winter but those neutrals (or weak Nina in the case of '95-'96) came after big El Ninos or in a several year period of neutral after El Nino...that's probably not a coincidence.   

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I'm thinking that after the model ingests the updated 00Z data from today, things will look a lot better.  :whistle:

 

MDstorm

yeah, the CFS2 is up and down a few times before the target season actually arrives but the real beauty of it is that it can be used by everyone, no matter their perspective/forecast, if you just wait a few days  :pimp:

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There is really no reason to be optimistic, unfortunately

-PDO, Neutral after a cold ENSO period...Unless we get a surprise Nino, it is a no-brainer to go Above normal temps and below normal snow...and a KU would be extremely unlikely..

This notion that "it just takes one!" is not really true..you can't rule it out, but I think the one is more likely in a Nina....I think the setup now is one of our worst possible

I think the most likely exception to the rule, if we were even to get one, would be a super cold month (25%?), but even then we'd probably struggle with storm track....

There are 2 other upsides I think

1) The far burbs can make 80-100% of climo in these winters if they are ok with smaller events...Plus Phineas, who lives 80-100 miles away from most of the posters, and in elevation..

2) It is hard for DCA to do awful 3 years in a row, especially when RIC-ROA-CHO are getting some interesting events. Plus one of these weird super clippers that give Hollywood MD and Orange VA, 6-8" has to hit DC at some point...even to a lesser extent...So I'd still say 5-8"+ for DCA which is at least better than the last 2 years

.

You can find something positive. You still have three months. :)

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.

You can find something positive. You still have three months. :)

 

A raging +PDO/warm GOA in October would be a good start. We've had that 6 times in the past 20 years....

1993

1995

1997

2002

2003

2009

All those years were either cold, snowy, or both for DC metro with the exception of the Nuclear 1997-1998 Nino.

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A raging +PDO/warm GOA in October would be a good start. We've had that 6 times in the past 20 years....

1993

1995

1997

2002

2003

2009

All those years were either cold, snowy, or both for DC metro with the exception of the Nuclear 1997-1998 Nino.

But that's not happening. What else?

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A raging +PDO/warm GOA in October would be a good start. We've had that 6 times in the past 20 years....

1993

1995

1997

2002

2003

2009

All those years were either cold, snowy, or both for DC metro with the exception of the Nuclear 1997-1998 Nino.

 

 

I don't feel horrible about this winter ....yet. Maybe I'll be wrong. My climo is 18ish, 10-15 seems like a decent first stab. 

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