Bob Chill Posted July 11, 2013 Author Share Posted July 11, 2013 Bob, is the PDO/ENSO a "chicken or the egg" scenario? It's been 4 years since the last Nino started and we've pretty much had a -PDO the entire time. The hope here being that with the PDO on the rise, any warm SSTs in region 3.4 and beyond wouldn't have as much working against them. It's tough to find an analog with a neutral ENSO/Warm PDO/Postitive QBO. Which probably means either we start to get some type of nino going or the PDO goes back into the tank. You can have a nino with a -pdo during djf (ala 68-69 & 72-73) but it's really hard to push against it. PDO covers a much bigger domain space than enso 3.4 so the interaction is complex. We are definitely in a long term -pdo regime but both the 02-03 and 09-10 ninos were solid +pdo through the season. 03-04 was a +pdo and warm neutral enso but it was on the heels of a nino. I don't think analogs mean much at this point until we get a clearer picture of where enso will likely be and whether or not the pdo wants to tank or not when it counts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 Thanks for the response, bob. Appreciate your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 Jingle all the way...... MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Jingle all the way...... BO5SXglCAAEti7E.jpg MDstorm Break out the sunscreen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Here's my winter forecast for DCA. 18-24 events for a total of 1"- 3". Now some people maybe asking well, which is it, 1" or is it 3". You'll just have to wait until my full forecast comes out in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 IF the CFS2 can just get the idea it's advertising now that the cold air will be on our side of the Pole this year sorta' right, maybe we can see some real snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 Cold, dry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 12, 2013 Author Share Posted July 12, 2013 CFS would also imply a -nao dominant winter...heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 CFS would also imply a -nao dominant winter...heh Need a Dec 5 update Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 I don't really see anything positive about this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 I don't really see anything positive about this winter There's no reason to see anything positive about 6/7 of our winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 I don't really see anything positive about this winter It's a long way out. Enough may turn out in our favor to give us some decent shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 I don't really see anything positive about this winter not even the temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 12, 2013 Author Share Posted July 12, 2013 Need a Dec 5 update Bob. lol- I checked today but didn't have the heart to post it...SE ridge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 12, 2013 Author Share Posted July 12, 2013 I don't really see anything positive about this winter Me either. Maybe we get lucky with storm track. Has the makings of average'ish temps and below climo snow at face value. Could get some blocking surprises. Arctic air has favored the other side of the globe in DJ for quite a while. That has to break at some point...although arctic air could favor the arctic and leave us all out. misery loves company. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 not even the temps? maybe...our 0.04" QPF amorphous blobs coming over the mountains could stick to the street... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted July 12, 2013 Share Posted July 12, 2013 maybe...our 0.04" QPF amorphous blobs coming over the mountains could stick to the street... That would still be a great improvement over last winter, beggars can't be choosy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 New Euro nino plumes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 New Euro nino plumes Oy, it is not looking pretty for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 New Euro nino plumes They have any skill? What do you think the most negative effect of a neutral would be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 They have any skill? What do you think the most negative effect of a neutral would be? northern stream dominance with a bad/dry storm track, and a -PDO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Big winter coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 And it goes downhill from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 24, 2013 Author Share Posted July 24, 2013 Enso is a non-factor this year. -ao/nao or bust. pdo schneedio. 3x last year or bust. Incoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 Enso is a non-factor this year. -ao/nao or bust. pdo schneedio. 3x last year or bust. Incoming! 3x last year gives me barely climo. I'll take the under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 Enso is a non-factor this year. -ao/nao or bust. pdo schneedio. 3x last year or bust. Incoming!60" for me ....yay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 Enso is a non-factor this year. -ao/nao or bust. pdo schneedio. 3x last year or bust. Incoming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted July 24, 2013 Share Posted July 24, 2013 Cold and dry. boo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 25, 2013 Author Share Posted July 25, 2013 Meaning no Nino so no help. If we're facing a nina then it is a factor. And a very bad one at that. I don't see how a neutral means anything other than limited to no chances of a big year. For all we know we could end up being central va and st Mary's county this winter. I'm just chasing 75-100% of climo. Neural enso means little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 25, 2013 Share Posted July 25, 2013 Meaning no Nino so no help. If we're facing a nina then it is a factor. And a very bad one at that. I don't see how a neutral means anything other than limited to no chances of a big year. For all we know we could end up being central va and st Mary's county this winter. I'm just chasing 75-100% of climo. Neural enso means little. It means a lot. Enso regions don't suddenly not matter because there is no anomaly. They don't know that. It is a wide basin and it is going to affect our weather no matter what the temperature is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.