ORH_wxman Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 I think El Nino is way more likely than the CPC/IRI models are showing...though I agree that neutral is the most likely right now for next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 I think El Nino is way more likely than the CPC/IRI models are showing...though I agree that neutral is the most likely right now for next winter. Neutral would suck for us, that would probably give us 4 brutal years in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 I think El Nino is way more likely than the CPC/IRI models are showing...though I agree that neutral is the most likely right now for next winter. The models sniffed out 2002 and 2009 by this time even though they undersold both....we know they are probably going to undersell the strength of any warm or cold event at this point which makes sense when you aggregate...but I figure positive neutral is probably best bet....weak nino would help a bit here but not a whole lot.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 17, 2013 Author Share Posted June 17, 2013 The models sniffed out 2002 and 2009 by this time even though they undersold both....we know they are probably going to undersell the strength of any warm or cold event at this point which makes sense when you aggregate...but I figure positive neutral is probably best bet....weak nino would help a bit here but not a whole lot.... I'm with you. It's looking pretty doubtful that we score a +1C month in 3.4 this year. Highest tri will prob end up being .5-.6 unless things start changing in a hurry. There's still time to go NINO but we're about out of time for +1-1.5 range considering all the guidance. PDO went .08 in May (first + monthly reading since May 2010). We're obviously in a long term - regime but there are always outliers. Maybe we can get a little help there and pray for some sort of dominant -nao/ao and +pna period. I'm so used to not getting snow that a region wide 4" storm would feel like a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 I'm with you. It's looking pretty doubtful that we score a +1C month in 3.4 this year. Highest tri will prob end up being .5-.6 unless things start changing in a hurry. There's still time to go NINO but we're about out of time for +1-1.5 range considering all the guidance. PDO went .08 in May (first + monthly reading since May 2010). We're obviously in a long term - regime but there are always outliers. Maybe we can get a little help there and pray for some sort of dominant -nao/ao and +pna period. I'm so used to not getting snow that a region wide 4" storm would feel like a monster. it is tanking again you got unlucky last winter for being in the burbs...the western burbs did much better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 I'm with you. It's looking pretty doubtful that we score a +1C month in 3.4 this year. Highest tri will prob end up being .5-.6 unless things start changing in a hurry. There's still time to go NINO but we're about out of time for +1-1.5 range considering all the guidance. PDO went .08 in May (first + monthly reading since May 2010). We're obviously in a long term - regime but there are always outliers. Maybe we can get a little help there and pray for some sort of dominant -nao/ao and +pna period. I'm so used to not getting snow that a region wide 4" storm would feel like a monster. .05-.07 in 3.4 and -.2 - -.4 in 1+2 might give us the right "relative" ENSO numbers to act more Nino'ish than Nina'ish, which is about all I'm hoping for at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 The models sniffed out 2002 and 2009 by this time even though they undersold both....we know they are probably going to undersell the strength of any warm or cold event at this point which makes sense when you aggregate...but I figure positive neutral is probably best bet....weak nino would help a bit here but not a whole lot.... Yeah that is what I would go with right now for a gun-to-head call. But certainly wouldn't rule out a weak Nino at this point. Last year seemed to be the first time recently where the models over-estimated ENSO. It looked like for a time we were a lock for weak El Nino and a solid shot at low-end Moderate...but it never even got to official weak criteria. PDO was pretty brutal though which was definitely a factor I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 Yeah that is what I would go with right now for a gun-to-head call. But certainly wouldn't rule out a weak Nino at this point. Last year seemed to be the first time recently where the models over-estimated ENSO. It looked like for a time we were a lock for weak El Nino and a solid shot at low-end Moderate...but it never even got to official weak criteria. PDO was pretty brutal though which was definitely a factor I think. I'd probably go for 51-54 style or 06....I think those would kind of suck for everyone...I don't think we can expect monster blocking anymore...the atlantic may be ok at times, and the PAC will probably be awful as usual..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 I'd probably go for 51-54 style or 06....I think those would kind of suck for everyone...I don't think we can expect monster blocking anymore...the atlantic may be ok at times, and the PAC will probably be awful as usual..... I'm not sure why we can't have big Atlantic blocking...its been a recurring theme the past 4-5 winters for the most part. Exception of 2011-2012. This regime seems to want to support it...much like the 1960s. I do agree we shouldn't expect it though. But your outlook on the Atlantic implies a lot more pessimism than I think is warranted. I do agree the PDO looks to stay negative, but can't rule out a spike if Nino tries to develop. There's been signs of weakness there. Its not an easy forecast IMHO at this point (not that it ever is)...but ENSO is pretty uncertain. It looks like another year where ENSO will not be the dominating factor..at least as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted June 19, 2013 Share Posted June 19, 2013 3 days. to me, this has been the quickest spring to summer period thanks to the March events (OK, 1 event and 1 non-event) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 I'm bullish. Get ready and refresh your shovels. NAO/PNA and if we're lucky......perhaps PDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 I'm bullish. Get ready and refresh your shovels. NAO/PNA and if we're lucky......perhaps PDO. Sounds like 04-05 winter when you repeatedly told us how great our winter was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Sounds like 04-05 winter when you repeatedly told us how great our winter was. '04-'05 would be a blockbuster for DCA compared to the last 3 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 '04-'05 would be a blockbuster for DCA compared to the last 3 winters. Id take it immediately. Solid winter for me (17") and pretty much every event underperformed. Could have easily been 20-25" with just a little luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Id take it immediately. Solid winter for me (17") and pretty much every event underperformed. Could have easily been 20-25" with just a little luck. I would take it too.The 2 events the last week of Feb. were very close to being big. Either one could have turned into a Feb. 06 for us. But like you implied, just bad luck that both underperformed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 Id take it immediately. Solid winter for me (17") and pretty much every event underperformed. Could have easily been 20-25" with just a little luck. Yeah I think 1/22/05 and 2/25/05 you'd like to have over again and 9/10 times you will do better in those. Not a classic DCA winter, but easily a 20"+ type winter with some impressive cold in Jan 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 I think we had 15 in 04-05. The biggest was 7 on Feb 28th and 2 2-3 inch events in March, but under forecast. Jan 22 was a half inch of snow and sleet down here, but we had a clipper 2 days before that was 2 inches-- with the cold, snowcover lasted maybe a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 We are guaranteed to get no snow now: http://www.liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=1122&Itemid=179 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 +PDO in June for 1st time in 35 months +0.08! woot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 +PDO in June for 1st time in 35 months +0.08! woot Waiting for your winter guess, even though this far out we all know it is just for fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 +PDO in June for 1st time in 35 months +0.08! woot It'll probably be like -1.45 by October or something. But who knows, maybe we'll get a fluke neutral like '60-'61. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 It'll probably be like -1.45 by October or something. But who knows, maybe we'll get a fluke neutral like '60-'61. all we'd need is to go back in time and make the previous 3 winters Nino-Nino-Neutral Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 all we'd need is to go back in time and make the previous 3 winters Nino-Nino-Neutral Well we got the neutral part right...does that count? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted July 9, 2013 Share Posted July 9, 2013 I always thought that if the previous winter was neutral, then there'd be no more Nina hangover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted July 10, 2013 Share Posted July 10, 2013 I always thought that if the previous winter was neutral, then there'd be no more Nina hangover. You've thought wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted July 10, 2013 Author Share Posted July 10, 2013 I always thought that if the previous winter was neutral, then there'd be no more Nina hangover. The problem is the pac needs to reshuffle. Even with a neutral last year we still had to battle the pac. Especially early on. Blocking saved us almost exclusively along with losing the early persistent -pna. The crappy pac rendered a fair portion of the strong -ao useless for an extended (and painful) period. The dang -pdo phase we're in is just working against us without a nino. However, even in the midst of a long term -pdo it's not impossible for it to relax. through a winter. Latest CPC enso discussion is a continuation of the neutral trend. Some of the dynamic models do keep 3.4 in + territory but nothing fancy. I we're about out of time for a big shift towards +1-1.5 in 3.4. Not that I was expecting it to happen but if a surprise was to happen, we would need to see it already. Best case IMO would be a near neutral pdo from door to door, 3.4 in the +.5ish range, and let the -ao/nao winter dominant trend continue. My early guess is 0 to +1 on temps for the season and 75% climo snow region wide. Except for DCA of course. They'll do 50% climo snow at best. As for which months favor cold and which favor warmth? Who knows. I'll go Dec +1 - +2, Jan even steven, Feb -1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 This thread is depressing. Just need to face it head on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 The problem is the pac needs to reshuffle. Even with a neutral last year we still had to battle the pac. Especially early on. Blocking saved us almost exclusively along with losing the early persistent -pna. The crappy pac rendered a fair portion of the strong -ao useless for an extended (and painful) period. The dang -pdo phase we're in is just working against us without a nino. However, even in the midst of a long term -pdo it's not impossible for it to relax. through a winter. Latest CPC enso discussion is a continuation of the neutral trend. Some of the dynamic models do keep 3.4 in + territory but nothing fancy. I we're about out of time for a big shift towards +1-1.5 in 3.4. Not that I was expecting it to happen but if a surprise was to happen, we would need to see it already. Best case IMO would be a near neutral pdo from door to door, 3.4 in the +.5ish range, and let the -ao/nao winter dominant trend continue. My early guess is 0 to +1 on temps for the season and 75% climo snow region wide. Except for DCA of course. They'll do 50% climo snow at best. As for which months favor cold and which favor warmth? Who knows. I'll go Dec +1 - +2, Jan even steven, Feb -1. I think there's a ton of science to back up temp forecasts by those with the skill (you not me). But I think a snowfall forecast is a roll of the dice. It so much depends on timing (luck). It is easily conceivable to have a warm winter AND above normal snow, especially with most of the area climo so low. Of course, as we all know, vice versa of the above is also very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted July 11, 2013 Share Posted July 11, 2013 The problem is the pac needs to reshuffle. Even with a neutral last year we still had to battle the pac. Especially early on. Blocking saved us almost exclusively along with losing the early persistent -pna. The crappy pac rendered a fair portion of the strong -ao useless for an extended (and painful) period. The dang -pdo phase we're in is just working against us without a nino. However, even in the midst of a long term -pdo it's not impossible for it to relax. through a winter. Latest CPC enso discussion is a continuation of the neutral trend. Some of the dynamic models do keep 3.4 in + territory but nothing fancy. I we're about out of time for a big shift towards +1-1.5 in 3.4. Not that I was expecting it to happen but if a surprise was to happen, we would need to see it already. Best case IMO would be a near neutral pdo from door to door, 3.4 in the +.5ish range, and let the -ao/nao winter dominant trend continue. My early guess is 0 to +1 on temps for the season and 75% climo snow region wide. Except for DCA of course. They'll do 50% climo snow at best. As for which months favor cold and which favor warmth? Who knows. I'll go Dec +1 - +2, Jan even steven, Feb -1. Bob, is the PDO/ENSO a "chicken or the egg" scenario? It's been 4 years since the last Nino started and we've pretty much had a -PDO the entire time. The hope here being that with the PDO on the rise, any warm SSTs in region 3.4 and beyond wouldn't have as much working against them. It's tough to find an analog with a neutral ENSO/Warm PDO/Postitive QBO. Which probably means either we start to get some type of nino going or the PDO goes back into the tank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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